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Markov chains are a common framework for individual-based state and time discrete models in ecology and evolution. Their use, however, is largely limited to systems with a low number of states, since the transition matrices involved pose…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2014-07-10 Katja Reichel , Valentin Bahier , Cédric Midoux , Jean-Pierre Masson , Solenn Stoeckel

We consider a unified framework of sequential change-point detection and hypothesis testing modeled by means of hidden Markov chains. One observes a sequence of random variables whose distributions are functionals of a hidden Markov chain.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2013-12-13 Savas Dayanik , Kazutoshi Yamazaki

Multistate Markov models are a canonical parametric approach for data modeling of observed or latent stochastic processes supported on a finite state space. Continuous-time Markov processes describe data that are observed irregularly over…

A phase-type distribution is the distribution of the time until absorption in a finite state-space time-homogeneous Markov jump process, with one absorbing state and the rest being transient. These distributions are mathematically tractable…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-12-08 Martin Bladt , Jorge Yslas

Product-form stationary distributions in Markov chains have been a foundational advance and driving force in our understanding of stochastic systems. In this paper, we introduce a new product-form relationship that we call "graph-based…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-03 Céline Comte , Isaac Grosof

In this paper, we outline a model of graph (or network) dynamics based on two ingredients. The first ingredient is a Markov chain on the space of possible graphs. The second ingredient is a semi-Markov counting process of renewal type. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-28 Marco Raberto , Fabio Rapallo , Enrico Scalas

In any Markov chain with finite state space the distribution of transition records always belongs to the exponential family. This observation is used to prove a fluctuation theorem, and to show that the dynamical entropy of a stationary…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 Jan Naudts , Erik Van der Straeten

We introduce an extension of finite mixture models by incorporating skew-normal distributions within a Hidden Markov Model framework. By assuming a constant transition probability matrix and allowing emission distributions to vary according…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-25 Andrea Nigri , Marco Forti , Han Lin Shang

Large continuous-time Markov chains with exponentially small transition rates arise in modeling complex systems in physics, chemistry and biology. We propose a constructive graph-algorithmic approach to determine the sequence of critical…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-02-01 Tingyue Gan , Maria Cameron

For a Markov chain both the detailed balance condition and the cycle Kolmogorov condition are algebraic binomials. This remark suggests to study reversible Markov chains with the tool of Algebraic Statistics, such as toric statistical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-03-31 Giovanni Pistone , Maria Piera Rogantin

Markov chains are simple yet powerful mathematical structures to model temporally dependent processes. They generally assume stationary data, i.e., fixed transition probabilities between observations/states. However, live, real-world…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-27 Kutalmış Coşkun , Borahan Tümer , Bjarne C. Hiller , Martin Becker

Flowgraph models provide an alternative approach in modeling a multi-state stochastic process. One of the most widely used stochastic processes that have many real-world applications especially in actuarial models is the Markov jump process…

Applications · Statistics 2016-11-07 Muhammad Fikri Budiana , Murwan H. M. A. Siddig

Multi-state models are commonly used for intermittent observations of a state over time, but these are generally based on the Markov assumption, that transition rates are independent of the time spent in current and previous states. In a…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-07 Christopher Jackson

We study the stochastic dynamics of a system of interacting species in a stochastic environment by means of a continuous-time Markov chain with transition rates depending on the state of the environment. Models of gene regulation in systems…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2019-12-03 Daniele Cappelletti , Abhishek Pal Majumder , Carsten Wiuf

The analysis of multiple time-to-event outcomes in a randomised controlled clinical trial can be accomplished with exisiting methods. However, depending on the characteristics of the disease under investigation and the circumstances in…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-02 Moritz Fabian Danzer , Andreas Faldum , Thorsten Simon , Barbara Hero , Rene Schmidt

Markov chains for probability distributions related to matrix product states and 1D Hamiltonians are introduced. With appropriate 'inverse temperature' schedules, these chains can be combined into a random approximation scheme for ground…

Strongly Correlated Electrons · Physics 2014-05-14 S. Iblisdir

In networking applications, one often wishes to obtain estimates about the number of objects at different parts of the network (e.g., the number of cars at an intersection of a road network or the number of packets expected to reach a node…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2020-06-22 Harshal A. Chaudhari , Michael Mathioudakis , Evimaria Terzi

Reaction networks are widely used models to describe biochemical processes. Stochastic fluctuations in the counts of biological macromolecules have amplified consequences due to their small population sizes. This makes it necessary to favor…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-02-28 Daniele Cappelletti , Badal Joshi

Most epidemic processes on networks can be modelled by a compartmental model, that specifies the spread of a disease in a population. The corresponding compartmental graph describes how the viral state of the nodes (individuals) changes…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-11-29 Massimo A. Achterberg , Piet Van Mieghem

In this brief note, we find formulas for the distribution and the transition probability matrices of a stochastic process described as a time-reversion in a finite time window of a Markov chain, with cluster observation of the Markov state…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-06-14 Daniel A. Gutierrez-Pachas , Eduardo F. Costa , Alessandro N. Vargas