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Electricity load forecasting is a necessary capability for power system operators and electricity market participants. The proliferation of local generation, demand response, and electrification of heat and transport are changing the…
The recent abundance of data on electricity consumption at different scales opens new challenges and highlights the need for new techniques to leverage information present at finer scales in order to improve forecasts at wider scales. In…
The superior performance of deep learning relies heavily on a large collection of sample data, but the data insufficiency problem turns out to be relatively common in global electricity markets. How to prevent overfitting in this case…
Electricity price signals in modern power systems exhibit complex dependence structures that render forecasting inherently challenging. Our analysis of real-world pricing signals from the California Independent System Operator (CAISO)…
Electricity price forecasting supports decision-making in energy markets and asset operation. Probabilistic forecasts are increasingly adopted to explicitly quantify uncertainty, typically issued as quantile predictions or ensembles of the…
Electricity price forecasting (EPF) is essential for energy markets stakeholders (e.g. grid operators, energy traders, policymakers) but remains challenging due to the inherent volatility and nonlinearity of price signals. Traditional…
Energy is a critical driver of modern economic systems. Accurate energy price forecasting plays an important role in supporting decision-making at various levels, from operational purchasing decisions at individual business organizations to…
In this paper we propose a new method for probabilistic forecasting of electricity prices. It is based on averaging point forecasts from different models combined with expectile regression. We show that deriving the predicted distribution…
We study the problem of forecasting and optimally trading day-ahead versus real-time (DART) price spreads in U.S. wholesale electricity markets. Building on the framework of Galarneau-Vincent et al., we extend spike prediction from a single…
Accurate prediction of electricity day-ahead prices is essential in competitive electricity markets. Although stationary electricity-price forecasting techniques have received considerable attention, research on non-stationary methods is…
Short term electricity price forecast is essential in competitive power markets, yet electricity price series exhibit high volatility, irregularity, and non-stationarity. This phenomenon is pronounced in the South Australian region of the…
Electricity price forecasting approaches generally fall into two categories: data-driven models, which learn from historical patterns, or fundamental models, which simulate market mechanisms. We propose a novel and highly efficient…
With the rapid development of electricity markets, price volatility has significantly increased, making accurate forecasting crucial for power system operations and market decisions. Traditional linear models cannot capture the complex…
Day Ahead Electricity Markets (DAMs) in India are thin but growing. Consistent price forecasts are important for their utilization in portfolio optimization models. Univariate or multivariate models with standard exogenous variables such as…
Probabilistic price forecasting has recently gained attention in power trading because decisions based on such predictions can yield significantly higher profits than those made with point forecasts alone. At the same time, methods are…
A study on power market price forecasting by deep learning is presented. As one of the most successful deep learning frameworks, the LSTM (Long short-term memory) neural network is utilized. The hourly prices data from the New England and…
Virtual bidding plays an important role in two-settlement electric power markets, as it can reduce discrepancies between day-ahead and real-time markets. Renewable energy penetration increases volatility in electricity prices, making…
Electricity is traded on various markets with different time horizons and regulations. Short-term intraday trading becomes increasingly important due to the higher penetration of renewables. In Germany, the intraday electricity price…
The electricity market has a vital role to play in the decarbonisation of the energy system. However, the electricity market is made up of many different variables and data inputs. These variables and data inputs behave in sometimes…
Deep Learning (DL) models can be used to tackle time series analysis tasks with great success. However, the performance of DL models can degenerate rapidly if the data are not appropriately normalized. This issue is even more apparent when…