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Planning effective interventions in biological systems requires treatment-effect models that adapt to unseen biological contexts by identifying their specific underlying mechanisms. Yet single-cell perturbation datasets span only a handful…

Learning curve extrapolation aims to predict model performance in later epochs of training, based on the performance in earlier epochs. In this work, we argue that, while the inherent uncertainty in the extrapolation of learning curves…

We present TimeFound, an encoder-decoder transformer-based time series foundation model for out-of-the-box zero-shot forecasting. To handle time series data from various domains, TimeFound employs a multi-resolution patching strategy to…

Recent progress in motion forecasting has been substantially driven by self-supervised pre-training. However, adapting pre-trained models for specific downstream tasks, especially motion prediction, through extensive fine-tuning is often…

Data generation-based zero-shot learning, although effective in training Small Task-specific Models (STMs) via synthetic datasets generated by Pre-trained Language Models (PLMs), is often limited by the low quality of such synthetic…

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have emerged as promising foundation models for prediction from tabular datasets, achieving state-of-the-art performance on small to moderate data sizes without tuning. While PFNs are motivated by Bayesian…

Survival analysis provides a powerful statistical framework for modeling time-to-event outcomes in the presence of censoring. However, selecting an appropriate estimator from the many specialized survival approaches often requires…

Conventional time-series forecasting methods typically aim to minimize overall prediction error, without accounting for the varying importance of different forecast ranges in downstream applications. We propose a training methodology that…

This paper tackles one of the most fundamental goals in functional time series analysis which is to provide reliable predictions for future functions. Existing methods for predicting a complete future functional observation use only…

Time Series Forecasting (TSF) is key functionality in numerous fields, such as financial investment, weather services, and energy management. Although increasingly capable TSF methods occur, many of them require domain-specific data…

Inspired by recent advances in large language models, foundation models have been developed for zero-shot time series forecasting, enabling prediction on datasets unseen during pretraining. These large-scale models, trained on vast…

Time-series forecasting is a critical challenge in various domains and has witnessed substantial progress in recent years. Many real-life scenarios, such as public health, economics, and social applications, involve feedback loops where…

This study investigates zero-shot forecasting capabilities of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) for macroeconomic indicators. We apply TSFMs to forecasting economic indicators under univariate conditions, bypassing the need for train…

Few-shot image classification remains challenging due to the scarcity of labeled training examples. Augmenting them with synthetic data has emerged as a promising way to alleviate this issue, but models trained on synthetic samples often…

Foundation Models are designed to serve as versatile embedding machines, with strong zero shot capabilities and superior generalization performance when fine-tuned on diverse downstream tasks. While this is largely true for language and…

The zero-shot capabilities of foundation models (FMs) for time series forecasting offer promising potentials in conformal prediction, as most of the available data can be allocated to calibration. This study compares the performance of Time…

Accurate forecasting of sequential data streams is a cornerstone of modern Web services, supporting applications such as traffic management, user behavior modeling, and online anomaly prevention. However, in many Web environments, new…

Time series foundation models (FMs) have emerged as a popular paradigm for zero-shot multi-domain forecasting. FMs are trained on numerous diverse datasets and claim to be effective forecasters across multiple different time series domains,…

Forecasting state evolution of network systems, such as the spread of information on social networks, is significant for effective policy interventions and resource management. However, the underlying propagation dynamics constantly shift…

Recent research on time series foundation models has primarily focused on forecasting, leaving it unclear how generalizable their learned representations are. In this study, we examine whether frozen pre-trained forecasting models can…