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We provide an inferential framework to assess variable importance for heterogeneous treatment effects. This assessment is especially useful in high-risk domains such as medicine, where decision makers hesitate to rely on black-box treatment…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-11 Pawel Morzywolek , Peter B. Gilbert , Alex Luedtke

Prediction performance of a risk scoring system needs to be carefully assessed before its adoption in clinical practice. Clinical preventive care often uses risk scores to screen asymptomatic population. The primary clinical interest is to…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-22 Yan Yuan , Qian M. Zhou , Bingying Li , Hengrui Cai , Eric J. Chow , Gregory T. Armstrong

Given a collection of features available for inclusion in a predictive model, it may be of interest to quantify the relative importance of a subset of features for the prediction task at hand. For example, in HIV vaccine trials, participant…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-27 Charles J. Wolock , Peter B. Gilbert , Noah Simon , Marco Carone

The delayed access to specialized psychiatric assessments and care for patients at risk of suicidal tendencies in emergency departments creates a notable gap in timely intervention, hindering the provision of adequate mental health support…

In many applications, it is of interest to assess the relative contribution of features (or subsets of features) toward the goal of predicting a response -- in other words, to gauge the variable importance of features. Most recent work on…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-23 Brian D. Williamson , Peter B. Gilbert , Noah R. Simon , Marco Carone

We develop our previous works concerning the identification of the collection of significant factors determining some, in general, non-binary random response variable. Such identification is important, e.g., in biological and medical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-06-05 Alexander V. Bulinski , Alexander S. Rakitko

Most work in causal inference considers deterministic interventions that set each unit's treatment to some fixed value. However, under positivity violations these interventions can lead to non-identification, inefficiency, and effects with…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-20 Edward H. Kennedy

Instrumental variable methods provide useful tools for inferring causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. To apply these methods with large-scale data sets, a major challenge is to find valid instruments from a possibly…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-24 Xinyi Zhang , Linbo Wang , Stanislav Volgushev , Dehan Kong

We propose a novel strategy for multivariate extreme value index estimation. In applications such as finance, volatility and risk present in the components of a multivariate time series are often driven by the same underlying factors, such…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-24 Joni Virta , Niko Lietzén , Lauri Viitasaari , Pauliina Ilmonen

Causal inference is crucial for understanding the true impact of interventions, policies, or actions, enabling informed decision-making and providing insights into the underlying mechanisms that shape our world. In this paper, we establish…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-26 Jingyue Huang , Changbao Wu , Leilei Zeng

Medication adherence is a problem of widespread concern in clinical care. Poor adherence is a particular problem for patients with chronic diseases requiring long-term medication because poor adherence can result in less successful…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-26 Kristen B. Hunter , Mark E. Glickman , Luis F. Campos

Experimental research on behavior and cognition frequently rests on stimulus or subject selection where not all characteristics can be fully controlled, even when attempting strict matching. For example, when contrasting patients to…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-08-29 Jona Sassenhagen , Phillip M. Alday

In longitudinal studies where units are embedded in space or a social network, interference may arise, meaning that a unit's outcome can depend on treatment histories of others. The presence of interference poses significant challenges for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-26 Ye Wang , Michael Jetsupphasuk

Instrumental variables have been widely used to estimate the causal effect of a treatment on an outcome. Existing confidence intervals for causal effects based on instrumental variables assume that all of the putative instrumental variables…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-03 Hyunseung Kang , Youjin Lee , T. Tony Cai , Dylan S. Small

Inverse classification, the process of making meaningful perturbations to a test point such that it is more likely to have a desired classification, has previously been addressed using data from a single static point in time. Such an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-11-15 Michael T. Lash , W. Nick Street

High-dimensional multivariate longitudinal data, which arise when many outcome variables are measured repeatedly over time, are becoming increasingly common in social, behavioral and health sciences. We propose a latent variable model for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-09 Sze Ming Lee , Yunxiao Chen , Tony Sit

Varying coefficient models are widely used to characterize dynamic associations between longitudinal outcomes and covariates. Existing work on varying coefficient models, however, all assumes that observation times are independent of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-27 Yu Gu , Yangjianchen Xu , Peijun Sang

In randomized trials and observational studies, it is often necessary to evaluate the extent to which an intervention affects a time-to-event outcome, which is only partially observed due to right censoring. For instance, in infectious…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-16 Yutong Jin , Peter B. Gilbert , Aaron Hudson

Selective inference (post-selection inference) is a methodology that has attracted much attention in recent years in the fields of statistics and machine learning. Naive inference based on data that are also used for model selection tends…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-25 Yoshiyuki Ninomiya , Yuta Umezu , Ichiro Takeuchi

Modern longitudinal studies collect multiple outcomes as the primary endpoints to understand the complex dynamics of the diseases. Oftentimes, especially in clinical trials, the joint variations among the multidimensional responses play a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-17 Salil Koner , Sheng Luo
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