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We investigate adaptive strategies to robustly and optimally control the COVID-19 pandemic via social distancing measures based on the example of Germany. Our goal is to minimize the number of fatalities over the course of two years without…
The COVID-19 pandemic led to widespread interest in epidemiological models. In this context the role of vaccination in influencing the spreading of the disease is of particular interest. There has also been a lot of debate on the role of…
In this paper we propose a data-driven model for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and use it to design optimal control strategies of human-mobility restrictions that both curb the epidemic and minimize the economic costs associated with…
Pandemic management requires that scientists rapidly formulate and analyze epidemiological models in order to forecast the spread of disease and the effects of mitigation strategies. Scientists must modify existing models and create novel…
This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, the SIRD model, to allow for time-varying parameters for real-time measurement and prediction of the trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured…
The basic reproductive number -- $R_0$ -- is one of the most common and most commonly misapplied numbers in public health. Although often used to compare outbreaks and forecast pandemic risk, this single number belies the complexity that…
Calibration of a SIR (Susceptibles-Infected-Recovered) model with official international data for the COVID-19 pandemics provides a good example of the difficulties inherent the solution of inverse problems. Inverse modeling is set up in a…
During an epidemic outbreak, decision makers crucially need accurate and robust tools to monitor the pathogen propagation. The effective reproduction number, defined as the expected number of secondary infections stemming from one…
The present paper introduces a data-driven framework for describing the time-varying nature of an SIRD model in the context of COVID-19. By embedding a rolling regression in a mixed integer bilevel nonlinear programming problem, our aim is…
With the unfolding of the COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical modeling of epidemics has been perceived and used as a central element in understanding, predicting, and governing the pandemic event. However, soon it became clear that long term…
The COronaVIrus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic that has had the world in its grip from the beginning of 2020, has resulted in an unprecedented level of public interest and media attention on the field of mathematical epidemiology. Ever…
It is essential to understand the dynamics of epidemics in the presence of coexisting pathogens. There are various phenomenon that can effect the dynamics. In this paper, we formulate a mathematical model using different assumptions to…
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmingly demonstrated the need to accurately evaluate the effects of implementing new or altering existing nonpharmaceutical interventions. Since these interventions applied at the societal level…
Policymakers commonly employ non-pharmaceutical interventions to manage the scale and severity of pandemics. Of non-pharmaceutical interventions, social distancing policies -- designed to reduce person-to-person pathogenic spread -- have…
Since the start of the still ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, there have been many modeling efforts to assess several issues of importance to public health. In this work, we review the theory behind some important mathematical models that have…
The COVID-19 pandemic has witnessed the role of online social networks (OSNs) in the spread of infectious diseases. The rise in severity of the epidemic augments the need for proper guidelines, but also promotes the propagation of fake…
Operations research (OR) approaches have been increasingly applied to model the resilience of a system to surprise events. In order to model a surprise event, one must have an understanding of its characteristics, which then become…
The widespread, and in many countries unprecedented, use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for mathematical models which can estimate the impact of these measures while…
In addition to its public health crisis, COVID-19 pandemic has led to the shutdown and closure of workplaces with an estimated total cost of more than $16 trillion. Given the long hours an average person spends in buildings and indoor…
Epidemic decision-making can effectively help the government to comprehensively consider public security and economic development to respond to public health and safety emergencies. Epidemic decision-making can effectively help the…