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Given a Wiener process with unknown and unobservable drift, we try to estimate this drift as effectively but also as quickly as possible, in the presence of a quadratic penalty for the estimation error and of a fixed, positive cost per unit…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-05-24 Erik Ekström , Ioannis Karatzas , Juozas Vaicenavicius

We study a controlled version of the Bayesian sequential testing problem for the drift of a Wiener process, in which the observer exercises discretion over the signal intensity. This control incurs a running cost that reflects the resource…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-09-24 Steven Campbell , Georgy Gaitsgori , Richard Groenewald

In the Wiener disorder problem, the drift of a Wiener process changes suddenly at some unknown and unobservable disorder time. The objective is to detect this change as quickly as possible after it happens. Earlier work on the Bayesian…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-10-25 Semih Onur Sezer

We construct a Bayesian sequential test of two simple hypotheses about the value of the unobservable drift coefficient of a Brownian motion, with a possibility to change the initial decision at subsequent moments of time for some penalty.…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-28 Mikhail Zhitlukhin

We study the Bayesian problems of detecting a change in the drift rate of an observable diffusion process with linear and exponential penalty costs for a detection delay. The optimal times of alarms are found as the first times at which the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-11-08 Pavel V. Gapeev , Albert N. Shiryaev

We consider a fractional Brownian motion with unknown linear drift such that the drift coefficient has a prior normal distribution and construct a sequential test for the hypothesis that the drift is positive versus the alternative that it…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-14 Alexey Muravlev , Mikhail Zhitlukhin

The aim of this paper is the rigorous derivation of a stochastic non-linear diffusion equation from a radiative transfer equation perturbed with a random noise. The proof of the convergence relies on a formal Hilbert expansion and the…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2014-05-13 Arnaud Debussche , Sylvain De Moor , Julien Vovelle

Suppose that local characteristics of several independent compound Poisson and Wiener processes change suddenly and simultaneously at some unobservable disorder time. The problem is to detect the disorder time as quickly as possible after…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-04-01 Savas Dayanik , H. Vincent Poor , Semih O. Sezer

We study a classical Bayesian statistics problem of sequentially testing the sign of the drift of an arithmetic Brownian motion with the $0$-$1$ loss function and a constant cost of observation per unit of time for general prior…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-03 Erik Ekström , Juozas Vaicenavicius

Suppose we observe a Poisson process in real time for which the intensity may take on two possible values $\lambda_0$ and $\lambda_1$. Suppose further that the priori probability of the true intensity is not given. We solve a minimax…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-25 Hongwei Mei

We consider the first-crossing-time problem through a constant boundary for a Wiener process perturbed by random jumps driven by a counting process. On the base of a sample-path analysis of the jump-diffusion process we obtain explicit…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-06-20 Antonio Di Crescenzo , Elvira Di Nardo , Luigi M. Ricciardi

We consider the Wiener process with drift $$ dX_t=\mu dt +\sigma d W_t $$ with initial value problem $X_0=x_0$, where $x_0 \in R$, $ \mu \in R$ and $\sigma > 0$ are parameters. By use values $(z_k)_{k \in N}$ of corresponding trajectories…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-11-08 Levan Labadze , Gimzer Saatashvili , Gogi Pantsulaia

We consider a nonparametric goodness of fit test problem for the drift coefficient of one-dimensional small diffusions. Our test is based on discrete observation of the processes, and the diffusion coefficient is a nuisance function which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-01-29 Ilia Negri , Yoichi Nishiyama

A one dimensional diffusion process $X=\{X_t, 0\leq t \leq T\}$, with drift $b(x)$ and diffusion coefficient $\sigma(\theta, x)=\sqrt{\theta} \sigma(x)$ known up to $\theta>0$, is supposed to switch volatility regime at some point $t^*\in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-09-20 A. De Gregorio , S. M. Iacus

Motivated in part by a problem in simulated tempering (a form of Markov chain Monte Carlo) we seek to minimise, in a suitable sense, the time it takes a (regular) diffusion with instantaneous reflection at 0 and 1 to travel from the origin…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-12-19 Saul Jacka , Ma. Elena Hernandez-Hernandez

We consider the problem of parameter estimation in the case of observation of the trajectory of diffusion process. We suppose that the drift coefficient has a singularity of cusp-type and the unknown parameter corresponds to the position of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-19 Yury A. Kutoyants

In this paper, we address the fusion problem in wireless sensor networks, where the cross-correlation between the estimates is unknown. To solve the problem within the Bayesian framework, we assume that the covariance matrix has a prior…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-09-14 Zhiyuan Weng , Petar Djuric

The survival probability and the first-passage-time statistics are important quantities in different fields. The Wiener process is the simplest stochastic processwith continuous variables, and important results can be explicitly found from…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2011-02-15 Eugenio Urdapilleta

The Gapeev-Shiryaev conjecture (originating in Gapeev and Shiryaev (2011) and Gapeev and Shiryaev (2013)) can be broadly stated as follows: Monotonicity of the signal-to-noise ratio implies monotonicity of the optimal stopping boundaries.…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-05-06 Philip A. Ernst , Goran Peskir

We study a Wiener disorder problem of detecting the minimum of $N$ change-points in $N$ observation channels coupled by correlated noises. It is assumed that the observations in each dimension can have different strengths and that the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-10-29 Hongzhong Zhang , Neofytos Rodosthenous , Olympia Hadjiliadis
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