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Robust quantification of predictive uncertainty is critical for understanding factors that drive weather and climate outcomes. Ensembles provide predictive uncertainty estimates and can be decomposed physically, but both physics and machine…

This paper questions the effectiveness of a modern predictive uncertainty quantification approach, called \emph{evidential deep learning} (EDL), in which a single neural network model is trained to learn a meta distribution over the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-04 Maohao Shen , J. Jon Ryu , Soumya Ghosh , Yuheng Bu , Prasanna Sattigeri , Subhro Das , Gregory W. Wornell

Time-dependent flow fields are typically generated by a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method, which is an extremely time-consuming process. However, the latent relationship between the flow fields is governed by the Navier-Stokes…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2024-04-11 Heming Bai , Zhicheng Wang , Xuesen Chu , Jian Deng , Xin Bian

Neural networks trained under different hyperparameter settings can fall into distinct training "regimes," with consistent behavior within regimes and qualitative differences across regimes. In this paper, we study such multi-regime…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-29 Yuxin Wang , Yuanzhe Hu , Xiaokun Zhong , Xiaopeng Wang , Haiquan Lu , Tianyu Pang , Michael W. Mahoney , Yujun Yan , Pu Ren , Yaoqing Yang

Leveraging neural networks as surrogate models for turbulence simulation is a topic of growing interest. At the same time, embodying the inherent uncertainty of simulations in the predictions of surrogate models remains very challenging.…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2024-10-10 Qiang Liu , Nils Thuerey

We present HyperFLINT (Hypernetwork-based FLow estimation and temporal INTerpolation), a novel deep learning-based approach for estimating flow fields, temporally interpolating scalar fields, and facilitating parameter space exploration in…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-03-26 Hamid Gadirov , Qi Wu , David Bauer , Kwan-Liu Ma , Jos Roerdink , Steffen Frey

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) are typically deterministic in nature and lack intrinsic mechanisms to quantify epistemic uncertainty, which reflects the model's lack of knowledge or ignorance of its own representations. We theoretically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Li Ju , Mayank Nautiyal , Andreas Hellander , Ekta Vats , Prashant Singh

Uncertainty estimation in deep learning has become a leading research field in medical image analysis due to the need for safe utilisation of AI algorithms in clinical practice. Most approaches for uncertainty estimation require sampling…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-04-12 Kaisar Kushibar , Víctor Manuel Campello , Lidia Garrucho Moras , Akis Linardos , Petia Radeva , Karim Lekadir

Uncertainty quantification is a critical aspect of reinforcement learning and deep learning, with numerous applications ranging from efficient exploration and stable offline reinforcement learning to outlier detection in medical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-27 Moritz A. Zanger , Pascal R. Van der Vaart , Wendelin Böhmer , Matthijs T. J. Spaan

Scientific machine learning (SciML) models are transforming many scientific disciplines. However, the development of good modeling practices to increase the trustworthiness of SciML has lagged behind its application, limiting its potential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-29 John D. Jakeman , Lorena A. Barba , Joaquim R. R. A. Martins , Thomas O'Leary-Roseberry

The application machine learning (ML) algorithms to turbulence modeling has shown promise over the last few years, but their application has been restricted to eddy viscosity based closure approaches. In this article we discuss rationale…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2021-05-31 J. P. Panda , H. V. Warrior

Scientific simulations and experimental measurements produce vast amounts of spatio-temporal data, yet extracting meaningful insights remains challenging due to high dimensionality, complex structures, and missing information. Traditional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-01 Hamid Gadirov

Widespread adoption of high-temperature polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells (HT-PEMFCs) and HT-PEM electrochemical hydrogen pumps (HT-PEM ECHPs) requires models and computational tools that provide accurate scale-up and optimization.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-01 Luis A. Briceno-Mena , Christopher G. Arges , Jose A. Romagnoli

Physical based simulations can be very time and computationally demanding tasks. One way of accelerating these processes is by making use of data-driven surrogate models that learn from existing simulations. Ensembling methods are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-22 Anthony Kalaydjian , Anton Balykov , Alexi Semiz , Adrien Chan-Hon-Tong

The fast and accurate prediction of unsteady flow becomes a serious challenge in fluid dynamics, due to the high-dimensional and nonlinear characteristics. A novel hybrid deep neural network (DNN) architecture was designed to capture the…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2020-01-08 Renkun Han , Yixing Wang , Yang Zhang , Gang Chen

Ground settlement prediction during the process of mechanized tunneling is of paramount importance and remains a challenging research topic. Typically, two paradigms are existing: a physics-driven approach utilizing process-oriented…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-08-07 Chen Xu , Ba Trung Cao , Yong Yuan , Günther Meschke

Current groundwater models face a significant challenge in their implementation due to heavy computational burdens. To overcome this, our work proposes a cost-effective emulator that efficiently and accurately forecasts the impact of…

We introduce an ensemble learning post-processing methodology for probabilistic hydrological modelling. This methodology generates numerous point predictions by applying a single hydrological model, yet with different parameter values drawn…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-07 Georgia Papacharalampous , Demetris Koutsoyiannis , Alberto Montanari

Machine learning-based Deepfake detection models have achieved impressive results on benchmark datasets, yet their performance often deteriorates significantly when evaluated on out-of-distribution data. In this work, we investigate an…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-07-09 Haroon Wahab , Hassan Ugail , Lujain Jaleel

Ensemble learning is widely applied in Machine Learning (ML) to improve model performance and to mitigate decision risks. In this approach, predictions from a diverse set of learners are combined to obtain a joint decision. Recently,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-14 Yingshui Tan , Baihong Jin , Xiangyu Yue , Yuxin Chen , Alberto Sangiovanni Vincentelli