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Network--based epidemic models that account for heterogeneous contact patterns are extensively used to predict and control the diffusion of infectious diseases. We use census and survey data to reconstruct a geo--referenced and…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Alessandro Celestini , Francesca Colaiori , Stefano Guarino , Enrico Mastrostefano , Lena Rebecca Zastrow

Understanding how epidemics spread in a system is a crucial step to prevent and control outbreaks, with broad implications on the system's functioning, health, and associated costs. This can be achieved by identifying the elements at higher…

Physics and Society · Physics 2015-03-16 Eugenio Valdano , Chiara Poletto , Armando Giovannini , Diana Palma , Lara Savini , Vittoria Colizza

This paper presents a novel approach to epidemic surveillance, leveraging the power of Artificial Intelligence and Large Language Models (LLMs) for effective interpretation of unstructured big data sources, like the popular ProMED and WHO…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-08-27 Sergio Consoli , Peter Markov , Nikolaos I. Stilianakis , Lorenzo Bertolini , Antonio Puertas Gallardo , Mario Ceresa

Early detection and modeling of a contagious epidemic can provide important guidance about quelling the contagion, controlling its spread, or the effective design of countermeasures. A topic of recent interest has been to design social…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2016-03-09 Huijuan Shao , K. S. M. Tozammel Hossain , Hao Wu , Maleq Khan , Anil Vullikanti , B. Aditya Prakash , Madhav Marathe , Naren Ramakrishnan

Epidemic outbreaks of new pathogens, or known pathogens in new populations, cause a great deal of fear because they are hard to predict. For theoretical models of disease spreading, on the other hand, quantities characterizing the outbreak…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2015-05-20 Petter Holme , Taro Takaguchi

This contribution analyzes the COVID-19 outbreak by comparably simple mathematical and numerical methods. The final goal is to predict the peak of the epidemic outbreak per country with a reliable technique. This is done by an algorithm…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-05-15 Robert Schaback

The ongoing Yemen cholera outbreak has been deemed one of the worst cholera outbreaks in history, with over a million people impacted and thousands dead. Triggered by a civil war, the outbreak has been shaped by various political,…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2019-02-20 Rohil Badkundri , Victor Valbuena , Srikusmanjali Pinnamareddy , Brittney Cantrell , Janet Standeven

The epidemic spreading of a disease can be described by a contact network whose nodes are persons or centers of contagion and links heterogeneous relations among them. We provide a procedure to identify multiple sources of an outbreak or…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2012-11-13 Vincenzo Fioriti , Marta Chinnici

Incorporating decision-making dynamics during an outbreak poses a challenge for epidemiology, faced by several modeling approaches siloed by different disciplines. We propose an epi-economic model where high-frequency choices of individuals…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-01-31 Lorenzo Amir Nemati Fard , Alberto Bisin , Michele Starnini , Michele Tizzoni

Precise outbreak forecasting of infectious diseases is essential for effective public health responses and epidemic control. The increased availability of machine learning (ML) methods for time-series forecasting presents an enticing avenue…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Jinpyo Hong , Rachel E. Baker

To have the greatest impact, public health initiatives must be made using evidence-based decision-making. Machine learning Algorithms are created to gather, store, process, and analyse data to provide knowledge and guide decisions. A…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-28 Imen Jdey , Ghazala Hcini , Hela Ltifi

In the age of digital epidemiology, epidemiologists are faced by an increasing amount of data of growing complexity and dimensionality. Machine learning is a set of powerful tools that can help to analyze such enormous amounts of data. This…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-19 Marvin N. Wright , Lukas Burk , Pegah Golchian , Jan Kapar , Niklas Koenen , Sophie Hanna Langbein

When an epidemic spreads into a population, it is often unpractical or impossible to have a continuous monitoring of all subjects involved. As an alternative, algorithmic solutions can be used to infer the state of the whole population from…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-05-12 Abhishek Tomy , Matteo Razzanelli , Francesco Di Lauro , Daniela Rus , Cosimo Della Santina

Infectious disease surveillance is of great importance for the prevention of major outbreaks. Syndromic surveillance aims at developing algorithms which can detect outbreaks as early as possible by monitoring data sources which allow to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-01 Moritz Kulessa , Eneldo Loza Mencía , Johannes Fürnkranz

Malaria remains a major public health concern in Ethiopia, particularly in the Amhara Region, where seasonal and unpredictable transmission patterns make prevention and control challenging. Accurately forecasting malaria outbreaks is…

Other Quantitative Biology · Quantitative Biology 2025-10-03 Kassahun Azezew , Amsalu Tesema , Bitew Mekuria , Ayenew Kassie , Animut Embiale , Ayodeji Olalekan Salau , Tsega Asresa

It has been known that epidemic outbreaks in the SIR model on networks are described by phase transitions. Despite the similarity with percolation transitions, whether an epidemic outbreak occurs or not cannot be predicted with probability…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-03-27 Junya Iwai , Shin-ichi Sasa

Epidemic intelligence deals with the detection of disease outbreaks using formal (such as hospital records) and informal sources (such as user-generated text on the web) of information. In this survey, we discuss approaches for epidemic…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2019-03-15 Aditya Joshi , Sarvnaz Karimi , Ross Sparks , Cecile Paris , C Raina MacIntyre

Most previous studies of epidemic dynamics on complex networks suppose that the disease will eventually stabilize at either a disease-free state or an endemic one. In reality, however, some epidemics always exhibit sporadic and recurrent…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-11-19 Xiao-Long Peng , Michael Small , Xin-Jian Xu , Xinchu Fu

Epidemic forecasting has become an integral part of real-time infectious disease outbreak response. While collaborative ensembles composed of statistical and machine learning models have become the norm for real-time forecasting,…

Accurate forecasts of COVID-19 is central to resource management and building strategies to deal with the epidemic. We propose a heterogeneous infection rate model with human mobility for epidemic modeling, a preliminary version of which we…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-05-06 Ajitesh Srivastava , Viktor K. Prasanna