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Natural and social multivariate systems are commonly studied through sets of simultaneous and time-spaced measurements of the observables that drive their dynamics, i.e., through sets of time series. Typically, this is done via hypothesis…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-07-01 Riccardo Marcaccioli , Giacomo Livan

Recent advances in time-series forecasting increasingly rely on pre-trained foundation-style models. While these models often claim broad generalization, existing evaluation protocols provide limited evidence. Indeed, most current…

Similarity-based method gives rise to a new class of methods for multi-label learning and also achieves promising performance. In this paper, we generalize this method, resulting in a new framework for classification task. Specifically, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-08 Zhongchen Ma , Songcan Chen

Recent advances in deep learning have driven rapid progress in time series forecasting, yet many state-of-the-art models continue to struggle with robust performance in real-world applications, even when they achieve strong results on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-24 Qitai Tan , Yiyun Chen , Mo Li , Ruiwen Gu , Yilin Su , Xiao-Ping Zhang

We propose a new framework for imposing monotonicity constraints in a Bayesian nonparametric setting based on numerical solutions of stochastic differential equations. We derive a nonparametric model of monotonic functions that allows for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-26 Ivan Ustyuzhaninov , Ieva Kazlauskaite , Carl Henrik Ek , Neill D. F. Campbell

Applying machine learning (ML) on multivariate time series data has growing popularity in many application domains, including in computer system management. For example, recent high performance computing (HPC) research proposes a variety of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-20 Emre Ates , Burak Aksar , Vitus J. Leung , Ayse K. Coskun

Hypothesis tests are a crucial statistical tool for data mining and are the workhorse of scientific research in many fields. Here we study differentially private tests of independence between a categorical and a continuous variable. We take…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-25 Simon Couch , Zeki Kazan , Kaiyan Shi , Andrew Bray , Adam Groce

Statistical ensembles of networks, i.e., probability spaces of all networks that are consistent with given aggregate statistics, have become instrumental in the analysis of complex networks. Their numerical and analytical study provides the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-08-09 Giona Casiraghi , Vahan Nanumyan , Ingo Scholtes , Frank Schweitzer

We introduce credal two-sample testing, a new hypothesis testing framework for comparing credal sets -- convex sets of probability measures where each element captures aleatoric uncertainty and the set itself represents epistemic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-14 Siu Lun Chau , Antonin Schrab , Arthur Gretton , Dino Sejdinovic , Krikamol Muandet

In this paper, we derive power guarantees of some sequential tests for bounded mean under general alternatives. We focus on testing procedures using nonnegative supermartingales which are anytime valid and consider alternatives which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-15 Amaury Durand , Olivier Wintenberger

Deep neural networks have proven to be quite effective in a wide variety of machine learning tasks, ranging from improved speech recognition systems to advancing the development of autonomous vehicles. However, despite their superior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2016-12-14 Qinglong Wang , Wenbo Guo , Alexander G. Ororbia , Xinyu Xing , Lin Lin , C. Lee Giles , Xue Liu , Peng Liu , Gang Xiong

Neural language models (LMs) have been shown to capture complex linguistic patterns, yet their utility in understanding human language and more broadly, human cognition, remains debated. While existing work in this area often evaluates…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-04-10 Kanishka Misra , Najoung Kim

The need to model and analyse dynamic systems operating over complex data is ubiquitous in AI and neighboring areas, in particular business process management. Analysing such data-aware systems is a notoriously difficult problem, as they…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2023-10-20 Alessandro Gianola , Marco Montali , Sarah Winkler

We consider the problem of constructing sequential power-one tests where the null and alternative classes are specified indirectly through historical or offline data. More specifically, given an offline dataset consisting of observations…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-23 Chia-Yu Hsu , Shubhanshu Shekhar

The information-spectrum analysis made by Han for classical hypothesis testing for simple hypotheses is extended to a unifying framework including both classical and quantum hypothesis testing as well as fixed-length source coding, whereby…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2016-11-17 Hiroshi Nagaoka , Masahito Hayashi

We study the adversarial binary hypothesis testing problem in the sequential setting. Associated with each hypothesis is a closed, convex set of distributions. Given the hypothesis, each observation is generated according to a distribution…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2025-11-14 Eeshan Modak , Mayank Bakshi , Bikash Kumar Dey , Vinod M. Prabhakaran

The classical binary hypothesis testing problem is revisited. We notice that when one of the hypotheses is composite, there is an inherent difficulty in defining an optimality criterion that is both informative and well-justified. For…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-03-29 Michael Bell , Yuval Kochman

The Bayesian framework is a well-studied and successful framework for inductive reasoning, which includes hypothesis testing and confirmation, parameter estimation, sequence prediction, classification, and regression. But standard…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-06-26 Marcus Hutter

This paper studies the problem of high-dimensional multiple testing and sparse recovery from the perspective of sequential analysis. In this setting, the probability of error is a function of the dimension of the problem. A simple…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-06-06 Matthew Malloy , Robert Nowak

We propose a generic game-based approach for test case generation. We set up a game between the tester and the System Under Test, in such a way that test cases correspond to game strategies, and the conformance relation ioco corresponds to…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2018-09-11 Petra van den Bos , Marielle Stoelinga