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Language models (LMs) may lead their users to make suboptimal downstream decisions when they confidently hallucinate. This issue can be mitigated by having the LM verbally convey the probability that its claims are correct, but existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-06 Neil Band , Xuechen Li , Tengyu Ma , Tatsunori Hashimoto

To enhance Large Language Models' (LLMs) reliability, calibration is essential -- the model's assessed confidence scores should align with the actual likelihood of its responses being correct. However, current confidence elicitation methods…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-29 Yukun Huang , Yixin Liu , Raghuveer Thirukovalluru , Arman Cohan , Bhuwan Dhingra

Calibrating language models (LMs) aligns their generation confidence with the actual likelihood of answer correctness, which can inform users about LMs' reliability and mitigate hallucinated content. However, prior calibration methods, such…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-11-13 Xin Liu , Farima Fatahi Bayat , Lu Wang

A trustworthy real-world prediction system should produce well-calibrated confidence scores; that is, its confidence in an answer should be indicative of the likelihood that the answer is correct, enabling deferral to an expert in cases of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-10-25 Katherine Tian , Eric Mitchell , Allan Zhou , Archit Sharma , Rafael Rafailov , Huaxiu Yao , Chelsea Finn , Christopher D. Manning

The advent of pre-trained language models (PLMs) has enabled significant performance gains in the field of natural language processing. However, recent studies have found PLMs to suffer from miscalibration, indicating a lack of accuracy in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-23 Geetanjali Bihani , Julia Rayz

Quantifying the uncertainty of predictions made by large language models (LLMs) in binary text classification tasks remains a challenge. Calibration, in the context of LLMs, refers to the alignment between the model's predicted…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-07-02 Patrizio Giovannotti , Alexander Gammerman

Multilingual pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) are incredibly effective at Question Answering (QA), a core task in Natural Language Understanding, achieving high accuracies on several multilingual benchmarks. However, little is known…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-04-16 Yahan Yang , Soham Dan , Dan Roth , Insup Lee

Fine-tuned Large Language Models (LLMs) often demonstrate poor calibration, with their confidence scores misaligned with actual performance. While calibration has been extensively studied in models trained from scratch, the impact of LLMs'…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Ziming Wang , Zeyu Shi , Haoyi Zhou , Shiqi Gao , Qingyun Sun , Jianxin Li

Accurate uncertainty quantification is crucial for the safe deployment of machine learning models, and prior research has demonstrated improvements in the calibration of modern language models (LMs). We study in-context learning (ICL), a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-29 Hanlin Zhang , Yi-Fan Zhang , Yaodong Yu , Dhruv Madeka , Dean Foster , Eric Xing , Himabindu Lakkaraju , Sham Kakade

Language models (LMs) are statistical models trained to assign probability to human-generated text. As such, it is reasonable to question whether they approximate linguistic variability exhibited by humans well. This form of statistical…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-03-19 Evgenia Ilia , Wilker Aziz

Prompting and in-context learning (ICL) have become efficient learning paradigms for large language models (LLMs). However, LLMs suffer from prompt brittleness and various bias factors in the prompt, including but not limited to the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Han Zhou , Xingchen Wan , Lev Proleev , Diana Mincu , Jilin Chen , Katherine Heller , Subhrajit Roy

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used in social science as scalable measurement tools for converting unstructured text into variables that can enter standard empirical designs. Measurement validity demands more than high…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-13 Jinyuan Wang , Ningyuan Deng , Yi Yang

We investigate the calibration of large language models' (LLMs') confidence across diverse tasks. The results of our preregistered study show that the current crop of LLMs are, like people, too sure they are right: confidence exceeds…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-26 Noam Michael , Daniel BenShushan , Jacob Bien , Don A. Moore

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable adaptability to diverse tasks, by leveraging context prompts containing instructions, or minimal input-output examples. However, recent work revealed they also exhibit label bias -- an…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-07 Yuval Reif , Roy Schwartz

Calibrating verbalized probabilities presents a novel approach for reliably assessing and leveraging outputs from black-box Large Language Models (LLMs). Recent methods have demonstrated improved calibration by applying techniques like…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-10-10 Cheng Wang , Gyuri Szarvas , Georges Balazs , Pavel Danchenko , Patrick Ernst

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) on language modeling and emergent capabilities make them a promising reference-free evaluator of natural language generation quality, and a competent alternative to human evaluation.…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-09-26 Yuxuan Liu , Tianchi Yang , Shaohan Huang , Zihan Zhang , Haizhen Huang , Furu Wei , Weiwei Deng , Feng Sun , Qi Zhang

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable self-improvement capabilities, whereby models iteratively revise their outputs through self-generated feedback. While this reflective mechanism has shown promise in enhancing task…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-04-07 Liangjie Huang , Dawei Li , Huan Liu , Lu Cheng

In-Context Learning (ICL) allows Large Language Models (LLMs) to adapt to new tasks with just a few examples, but their predictions often suffer from systematic biases, leading to unstable performance in classification. While calibration…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-05 Korel Gundem , Juncheng Dong , Dennis Zhang , Vahid Tarokh , Zhengling Qi

Large Language Models (LLMs) currently respond to every prompt. However, they can produce incorrect answers when they lack knowledge or capability -- a problem known as hallucination. We instead propose post-training an LLM to generate…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2026-02-17 Tim Franzmeyer , Archie Sravankumar , Lijuan Liu , Yuning Mao , Rui Hou , Sinong Wang , Jakob N. Foerster , Luke Zettlemoyer , Madian Khabsa

We explore the use of Large Language Model (LLM-based) chatbots to power recommender systems. We observe that the chatbots respond poorly when they encounter under-specified requests (e.g., they make incorrect assumptions, hedge with a long…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Christine Herlihy , Jennifer Neville , Tobias Schnabel , Adith Swaminathan
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