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We study double descent and benign overfitting in macroeconomic forecasting. We document that double-descent risk curves arise in standard macroeconomic datasets that are driven by a small number of latent factors, and we characterize when…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-18 Andrea Carriero , Florian Huber , Davide Pettenuzzo

One classical canon of statistics is that large models are prone to overfitting, and model selection procedures are necessary for high dimensional data. However, many overparameterized models, such as neural networks, perform very well in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-05 Xi Chen , Qiang Liu , Xin T. Tong

Current deep neural networks are highly overparameterized (up to billions of connection weights) and nonlinear. Yet they can fit data almost perfectly through variants of gradient descent algorithms and achieve unexpected levels of…

Understanding how the test risk scales with model complexity is a central question in machine learning. Classical theory is challenged by the learning curves observed for large over-parametrized deep networks. Capacity measures based on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-22 Yichen Wang , Yudong Chen , Lorenzo Rosasco , Fanghui Liu

We consider linear regression problems with a varying number of random projections, where we provably exhibit a double descent curve for a fixed prediction problem, with a high-dimensional analysis based on random matrix theory. We first…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-15 Francis Bach

As the development of measuring instruments and computers has accelerated the collection of massive amounts of data, functional data analysis (FDA) has experienced a surge of attention. The FDA methodology treats longitudinal data as a set…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-09 Tomoya Wakayama , Hidetoshi Matsui

Temporal Difference (TD) algorithms are widely used in Deep Reinforcement Learning (RL). Their performance is heavily influenced by the size of the neural network. While in supervised learning, the regime of over-parameterization and its…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-20 David Brellmann , Eloïse Berthier , David Filliat , Goran Frehse

Signal restoration and inverse problems are key elements in most real-world data science applications. In the past decades, with the emergence of machine learning methods, inversion of measurements has become a popular step in almost all…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Deborah Pereg

Existing bounds on the generalization error of deep networks assume some form of smooth or bounded dependence on the input variable, falling short of investigating the mechanisms controlling such factors in practice. In this work, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-24 Matteo Gamba , Hossein Azizpour , Mårten Björkman

Various classical machine learning models, including linear regression, kernel methods, and deep neural networks, exhibit double descent, in which the test risk peaks near the interpolation threshold and then decreases in the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-04-21 Kensuke Kamisoyama , Lento Nagano , Koji Terashi

Although statistical learning theory provides a robust framework to understand supervised learning, many theoretical aspects of deep learning remain unclear, in particular how different architectures may lead to inductive bias when trained…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-27 Cédric Gerbelot , Avetik Karagulyan , Stefani Karp , Kavya Ravichandran , Menachem Stern , Nathan Srebro

In solving a system of $n$ linear equations in $d$ variables $Ax=b$, the condition number of the $n,d$ matrix $A$ measures how much errors in the data $b$ affect the solution $x$. Estimates of this type are important in many inverse…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-29 Tomaso Poggio , Gil Kur , Andrzej Banburski

Classical regression has a simple geometric description in terms of a projection of the training labels onto the column space of the design matrix. However, for over-parameterized models -- where the number of fit parameters is large enough…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-04-28 Jason W. Rocks , Pankaj Mehta

We perform an average case analysis of the generalization dynamics of large neural networks trained using gradient descent. We study the practically-relevant "high-dimensional" regime where the number of free parameters in the network is on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-10-11 Madhu S. Advani , Andrew M. Saxe

We study overparameterization in generative adversarial networks (GANs) that can interpolate the training data. We show that overparameterization can improve generalization performance and accelerate the training process. We study the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-02 Lorenzo Luzi , Yehuda Dar , Richard Baraniuk

Path regularization has shown to be a very effective regularization to train neural networks, leading to a better generalization property than common regularizations i.e. weight decay, etc. We propose a first near-complete (as will be made…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-09 Hao Yu

One of the central puzzles in modern machine learning is the ability of heavily overparametrized models to generalize well. Although the low-dimensional structure of typical datasets is key to this behavior, most theoretical studies of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-13 Stéphane d'Ascoli , Marylou Gabrié , Levent Sagun , Giulio Biroli

Merging the two cultures of deep and statistical learning provides insights into structured high-dimensional data. Traditional statistical modeling is still a dominant strategy for structured tabular data. Deep learning can be viewed…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-25 Anindya Bhadra , Jyotishka Datta , Nick Polson , Vadim Sokolov , Jianeng Xu

A central problem in data science is to use potentially noisy samples of an unknown function to predict values for unseen inputs. In classical statistics, predictive error is understood as a trade-off between the bias and the variance that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-04 Mark K. Transtrum , Gus L. W. Hart , Tyler J. Jarvis , Jared P. Whitehead

The role of $L^2$ regularization, in the specific case of deep neural networks rather than more traditional machine learning models, is still not fully elucidated. We hypothesize that this complex interplay is due to the combination of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-02-11 Pierre H. Richemond , Yike Guo
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