Related papers: Estimating Systemic Risk within Financial Networks…
In this paper, we study the stochastic combinatorial multi-armed bandit problem under semi-bandit feedback. While much work has been done on algorithms that optimize the expected reward for linear as well as some general reward functions,…
Quantiles and expected shortfalls are commonly used risk measures in financial risk management. The two measurements are correlated while have distinguished features. In this project, our primary goal is to develop stable and practical…
In this study, we propose a new definition of multivariate conditional value-at-risk (MCVaR) as a set of vectors for discrete probability spaces. We explore the properties of the vector-valued MCVaR (VMCVaR) and show the advantages of…
This research presents a framework for quantitative risk management in volatile markets, specifically focusing on expectile-based methodologies applied to the FTSE 100 index. Traditional risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) have…
Based on law of large numbers and central limit theorem under nonlinear expectation, we introduce a new method of using G-normal distribution to measure financial risks. Applying max-mean estimators and small windows method, we establish…
Determining risk contributions of unit exposures to portfolio-wide economic capital is an important task in financial risk management. Computing risk contributions involves difficulties caused by rare-event simulations. In this study, we…
A novel dynamical model for the study of operational risk in banks and suitable for the calculation of the Value at Risk (VaR) is proposed. The equation of motion takes into account the interactions among different bank's processes, the…
Optimizing Conditional Value-at-risk (CVaR) using policy gradient (a.k.a CVaR-PG) faces significant challenges of sample inefficiency. This inefficiency stems from the fact that it focuses on tail-end performance and overlooks many sampled…
Two-stage stochastic programming is a popular framework for optimization under uncertainty, where decision variables are split between first-stage decisions, and second-stage (or recourse) decisions, with the latter being adjusted after…
Quantile regression is a powerful tool for detecting exposure-outcome associations given covariates across different parts of the outcome's distribution, but has two major limitations when the aim is to infer the effect of an exposure.…
We propose a new model selection criterion for mixed effects regression models that is computable when the model is fitted with a two-step method, even when the structure and the distribution of the random effects are unknown. The criterion…
Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is a widely used risk metric in applications such as finance. We derive concentration bounds for CVaR estimates, considering separately the cases of light-tailed and heavy-tailed distributions. In the…
Robustness under perturbation and contamination is a prominent issue in statistical learning. We address the robust nonlinear regression based on the so-called interval conditional value-at-risk (In-CVaR), which is introduced to enhance…
In an environment of increasingly volatile financial markets, the accurate estimation of risk remains a major challenge. Traditional econometric models, such as GARCH and its variants, are based on assumptions that are often too rigid to…
Mendelian randomization (MR) is widely used to uncover causal relationships in the presence of unmeasured confounders. However, most existing MR methods presuppose linear causality, risking bias when the true relationships are nonlinear,…
We propose a multicountry quantile factor augmeneted vector autoregression (QFAVAR) to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence of quantile…
In this paper, we measure systematic risk with a new nonparametric factor model, the neural network factor model. The suitable factors for systematic risk can be naturally found by inserting daily returns on a wide range of assets into the…
In the paper, we use and investigate copulas models to represent multivariate dependence in financial time series. We propose the algorithm of risk measure computation using copula models. Using the optimal mean-$CVaR$ portfolio we compute…
In this paper, we propose a variable selection method for general nonparametric kernel-based estimation. The proposed method consists of two-stage estimation: (1) construct a consistent estimator of the target function, (2) approximate the…
This paper focuses on securely estimating the state of a nonlinear dynamical system from a set of corrupted measurements. In particular, we consider two broad classes of nonlinear systems, and propose a technique which enables us to perform…