Related papers: Estimating Systemic Risk within Financial Networks…
Digital twin models allow us to continuously assess the possible risk of damage and failure of a complex system. Yet high-fidelity digital twin models can be computationally expensive, making quick-turnaround assessment challenging. Towards…
We propose a risk-averse statistical learning framework wherein the performance of a learning algorithm is evaluated by the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of losses rather than the expected loss. We devise algorithms based on stochastic…
This paper tackles the risk averse multi-armed bandits problem when incurred losses are non-stationary. The conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is used as the objective function. Two estimation methods are proposed for this objective function…
In this paper a class of combinatorial optimization problems is discussed. It is assumed that a solution can be constructed in two stages. The current first-stage costs are precisely known, while the future second-stage costs are only known…
We study risk-sensitive planning under partial observability using the dynamic risk measure Iterated Conditional Value-at-Risk (ICVaR). A policy evaluation algorithm for ICVaR is developed with finite-time performance guarantees that do not…
Various indicators and measures of the real life procedures rise up as functionals of the quantile process of a parent random variable Z. However, Z can be observed only through a response in a linear model whose covariates are not under…
We introduce a semiparametric approach for forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) by modeling the conditional scale of financial returns, defined as the difference between two specified quantiles, via restricted…
Accurately defining, measuring and mitigating risk is a cornerstone of financial risk management, especially in the presence of financial contagion. Traditional correlation-based risk assessment methods often struggle under volatile market…
Predicting future values at risk (fVaR) is an important problem in finance. They arise in the modelling of future initial margin requirements for counterparty credit risk and future market risk VaR. One is also interested in derived…
Value-at-risk (VaR) has been playing the role of a standard risk measure since its introduction. In practice, the delta-normal approach is usually adopted to approximate the VaR of portfolios with option positions. Its effectiveness,…
Enforcing safety in the presence of stochastic uncertainty is a challenging problem. Traditionally, researchers have proposed safety in the statistical mean as a safety measure in this case. However, ensuring safety in the statistical mean…
This paper considers variational inequalities (VI) defined by the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of uncertain functions and provides three stochastic approximation schemes to solve them. All methods use an empirical estimate of the CVaR…
We propose a general procedure for estimating the variance-covariance matrix of two-step estimates of structural parameters in latent variable models. The method is partially simulation-based, in that it includes drawing simulated values of…
Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) is a prominent risk measure in financial engineering, energy systems, and supply chain management. In these domains, Markov decision processes (MDPs) with a long-run CVaR criterion effectively mitigate cost…
This thesis presents the Conditional Value-at-Risk concept and combines an analysis that covers its application as a risk measure and as a vector norm. For both areas of application the theory is revised in detail and examples are given to…
In a wide variety of sequential decision making problems, it can be important to estimate the impact of rare events in order to minimize risk exposure. A popular risk measure is the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), which is commonly…
In economics, insurance and finance, value at risk (VaR) is a widely used measure of the risk of loss on a specific portfolio of financial assets. For a given portfolio, time horizon, and probability $\alpha$, the $100\alpha\%$ VaR is…
Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) and value-at-risk (VaR) are popular tail-risk measures in finance and insurance industries as well as in highly reliable, safety-critical uncertain environments where often the underlying probability…
We propose a distributionally robust approach to risk-sensitive estimation of an unknown signal x from an observed signal y. The unknown signal and observation are modeled as random vectors whose joint probability distribution is unknown,…
We introduce two quantum algorithms to compute the Value at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) of financial derivatives using quantum computers: the first by applying existing ideas from quantum risk analysis to derivative…