Related papers: Bayesian SAR model with stochastic volatility and …
The spatial autoregressive (SAR) model is extended by introducing a Markov switching dynamics for the weight matrix and spatial autoregressive parameter. The framework enables the identification of regime-specific connectivity patterns and…
This paper introduces a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with stochastic volatility-in-mean and time-varying skewness. Unlike previous approaches, the proposed model allows both volatility and skewness to directly affect macroeconomic…
Multivariate stochastic volatility models with skew distributions are proposed. Exploiting Cholesky stochastic volatility modeling, univariate stochastic volatility processes with leverage effect and generalized hyperbolic skew…
We introduce a dynamic spatiotemporal volatility model that extends traditional approaches by incorporating spatial, temporal, and spatiotemporal spillover effects, along with volatility-specific observed and latent factors. The model…
Tensor-valued data are becoming increasingly available in economics and this calls for suitable econometric tools. We propose a new dynamic linear model for tensor-valued response variables and covariates that encompasses some well-known…
We develop a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model with multivariate stochastic volatility that is capable of handling vast dimensional information sets. Three features are introduced to permit reliable estimation of the model. First,…
We develop a new Bayesian approach to estimating panel spatial autoregressive models with a known number of latent common factors, where N, the number of cross-sectional units, is much larger than T, the number of time periods. Without…
Bayesian sociality models provide a scalable and flexible alternative for network analysis, capturing degree heterogeneity through actor-specific parameters while mitigating the identifiability challenges of latent space models. This paper…
This paper develops a non-Bayesian methodology to analyze the time-varying structure of international linkages and market efficiency in G7 countries. We consider a non-Bayesian time-varying vector autoregressive (TV-VAR) model, and apply it…
I introduce a high-dimensional Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) framework designed to estimate the effects of conventional monetary policy shocks. The model captures structural shocks as latent factors, enabling computationally…
The availability of multidimensional economic datasets has grown significantly in recent years. An example is bilateral trade values across goods among countries, comprising three dimensions -- importing countries, exporting countries, and…
A Bayesian procedure is developed for multivariate stochastic volatility, using state space models. An autoregressive model for the log-returns is employed. We generalize the inverted Wishart distribution to allow for different correlation…
This paper develops a simple two-stage variational Bayesian algorithm to estimate panel spatial autoregressive models, where N, the number of cross-sectional units, is much larger than T, the number of time periods without restricting the…
We propose a new Bayesian Markov switching regression model for multidimensional arrays (tensors) of binary time series. We assume a zero-inflated logit regression with time-varying parameters and apply it to multilayer temporal networks.…
Monitoring downside risk and upside risk to the key macroeconomic indicators is critical for effective policymaking aimed at maintaining economic stability. In this paper I propose a parametric framework for modelling and forecasting…
This paper introduces a spatiotemporal exponential generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (spatiotemporal E-GARCH) model, extending traditional spatiotemporal GARCH models by incorporating asymmetric volatility…
We discuss Bayesian forecasting of increasingly high-dimensional time series, a key area of application of stochastic dynamic models in the financial industry and allied areas of business. Novel state-space models characterizing sparse…
A novel spatiotemporal framework using diverse econometric approaches is proposed in this research to analyze relationships among eight economy-wide variables in varying market conditions. Employing Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Granger…
Mixture autoregressive (MAR) models provide a flexible way to model time series with predictive distributions which depend on the recent history of the process and are able to accommodate asymmetry and multimodality. Bayesian inference for…
Many economic variables feature changes in their conditional mean and volatility, and Time Varying Vector Autoregressive Models are often used to handle such complexity in the data. Unfortunately, when the number of series grows, they…