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This paper is concerned with Bayesian inferential methods for data from controlled branching processes that account for model robustness through the use of disparities. Under regularity conditions, we establish that estimators built on…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-19 M. González , C. Minuesa , I. del Puerto , A. N. Vidyashankar

Automation is becoming ubiquitous in all laboratory activities, leading towards precisely defined and codified laboratory protocols. However, the integration between laboratory protocols and mathematical models is still lacking. Models…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2021-11-30 Luca Cardelli , Marta Kwiatkowska , Luca Laurenti

Complex models used to describe biological processes in epidemiology and ecology often have computationally intractable or expensive likelihoods. This poses significant challenges in terms of Bayesian inference but more significantly in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-12 Mahasen Dehideniya , Antony M. Overstall , Chris C. Drovandi , James M. McGree

Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED) seeks to maximize the expected information gain (EIG) of experiments. This requires a likelihood estimate, which in many settings is intractable. Simulation-based inference (SBI) provides powerful…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-09 Samuel Klein , Willie Neiswanger , Daniel Ratner , Michael Kagan , Sean Gasiorowski

Bayesian statistics has gained popularity in psychological research due to its intuitive uncertainty quantification and convenient information-updating rules. In many applications, however, prior distributions are introduced merely as…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-10 Yang Liu , Jonathan P. Williams , Jan Hannig

Recent decades have seen an interest in prediction problems for which Bayesian methodology has been used ubiquitously. Sampling from or approximating the posterior predictive distribution in a Bayesian model allows one to make inferential…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-09-12 Giri Gopalan

Experimental design is an approach for selecting samples among a given set so as to obtain the best estimator for a given criterion. In the context of linear regression, several optimal designs have been derived, each associated with a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-01-01 Geovani Rizk , Igor Colin , Albert Thomas , Moez Draief

We present a method for computing A-optimal sensor placements for infinite-dimensional Bayesian linear inverse problems governed by PDEs with irreducible model uncertainties. Here, irreducible uncertainties refers to uncertainties in the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-08-26 Karina Koval , Alen Alexanderian , Georg Stadler

We develop a new computational approach for "focused" optimal Bayesian experimental design with nonlinear models, with the goal of maximizing expected information gain in targeted subsets of model parameters. Our approach considers…

Computation · Statistics 2019-03-28 Chi Feng , Youssef M. Marzouk

In the realm of statistical learning, the increasing volume of accessible data and increasing model complexity necessitate robust methodologies. This paper explores two branches of robust Bayesian methods in response to this trend. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-02 Masahiro Tanaka

Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED) provides a powerful, decision-theoretic framework for selecting experiments so as to maximise the expected utility of the data to be collected. In practice, however, its applicability can be…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-13 Louis Sharrock

Bayesian analysis is increasingly popular for use in social science and other application areas where the data are observations from an informative sample. An informative sampling design leads to inclusion probabilities that are correlated…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-06-07 Terrance D. Savitsky , Daniell Toth

Mechanistic mathematical models of biological systems usually contain a number of unknown parameters whose values need to be estimated from available experimental data in order for the models to be validated and used to make quantitative…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2025-06-16 Yue Liu , Philip K. Maini , Ruth E. Baker

We study the sparse high-dimensional Gaussian mixture model when the number of clusters is allowed to grow with the sample size. A minimax lower bound for parameter estimation is established, and we show that a constrained maximum…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-26 Dapeng Yao , Fangzheng Xie , Yanxun Xu

We consider the problem of designing experiments for the estimation of a target in regression analysis if there is uncertainty about the parametric form of the regression function. A new optimality criterion is proposed, which minimizes the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-17 Kira Alhorn , Kirsten Schorning , Holger Dette

Bayesian statistics is based on the subjective definition of probability as {\it ``degree of belief''} and on Bayes' theorem, the basic tool for assigning probabilities to hypotheses combining {\it a priori} judgements and experimental…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2016-09-01 G. D'Agostini

Bayesian inference is a powerful tool in gravitational-wave astronomy. It enables us to deduce the properties of merging compact-object binaries and to determine how these mergers are distributed as a population according to mass, spin, and…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2022-06-15 Isobel M. Romero-Shaw , Eric Thrane , Paul D. Lasky

Quasi-Bayesian theory uses convex sets of probability distributions and expected loss to represent preferences about plans. The theory focuses on decision robustness, i.e., the extent to which plans are affected by deviations in subjective…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-11-04 Fabio Gagliardi Cozman , Eric Krotkov

We develop an empirical Bayes framework for experimental design that leverages information from prior related studies. When a researcher has access to estimates from previous studies on similar parameters, they can use empirical Bayes to…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-25 Zhiheng You

Controlled experiments (A/B tests or randomized field experiments) are the de facto standard to make data-driven decisions when implementing changes and observing customer responses. The methodology to analyze such experiments should be…

Applications · Statistics 2020-03-06 Shafi Kamalbasha , Manuel J. A. Eugster