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Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are a powerful but computationally expensive way of performing non-parametric Bayesian inference. MCMC proposals which utilise gradients, such as Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), can better explore the…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-30 Andrew Millard , Joshua Murphy , Daniel Frisch , Simon Maskell

We develop a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method that exploits a hierarchy of models of increasing complexity to efficiently generate samples from an unnormalized target distribution. Broadly, the method rewrites the Multilevel…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-05 Mikkel B. Lykkegaard , Tim J. Dodwell , Colin Fox , Grigorios Mingas , Robert Scheichl

This paper develops a matrix-variate adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology for Bayesian Cointegrated Vector Auto Regressions (CVAR). We replace the popular approach to sampling Bayesian CVAR models, involving griddy Gibbs,…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2010-04-23 Gareth W. Peters , Balakrishnan Kannan , Ben Lasscock , Chris Mellen

Stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) is considered the gold standard for Bayesian inference in large-scale models, such as Bayesian neural networks. Since practitioners face speed versus accuracy tradeoffs in these models,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-19 Antonios Alexos , Alex Boyd , Stephan Mandt

A \emph{strong coreset} for the mean queries of a set $P$ in ${\mathbb{R}}^d$ is a small weighted subset $C\subseteq P$, which provably approximates its sum of squared distances to any center (point) $x\in {\mathbb{R}}^d$. A \emph{weak…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-05 Alaa Maalouf , Ibrahim Jubran , Dan Feldman

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a popular class of statistical methods for simulating autocorrelated draws from target distributions, including posterior distributions in Bayesian analysis. An important consideration in using simulated…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-16 Benjamin E. Deonovic , Brian J. Smith

This work presents an efficient approach for accelerating multilevel Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling for large-scale problems using low-fidelity machine learning models. While conventional techniques for large-scale Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-05-21 Sohail Reddy , Hillary Fairbanks

In this article we consider Bayesian estimation of static parameters for a class of partially observed McKean-Vlasov diffusion processes with discrete-time observations over a fixed time interval. This problem features several obstacles to…

Computation · Statistics 2025-04-23 Ajay Jasra , Amin Wu

Bayesian inference for Markov processes has become increasingly relevant in recent years. Problems of this type often have intractable likelihoods and prior knowledge about model rate parameters is often poor. Markov Chain Monte Carlo…

Computation · Statistics 2014-10-23 Jamie Owen , Darren J. Wilkinson , Colin S. Gillespie

Bayesian learning in undirected graphical models|computing posterior distributions over parameters and predictive quantities is exceptionally difficult. We conjecture that for general undirected models, there are no tractable MCMC (Markov…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-19 Iain Murray , Zoubin Ghahramani

A fundamental challenge in Bayesian inference is efficient representation of a target distribution. Many non-parametric approaches do so by sampling a large number of points using variants of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We propose an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-04-25 Cole Hawkins , Alec Koppel , Zheng Zhang

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods require a large number of samples to approximate a posterior distribution, which can be costly when the likelihood or prior is expensive to evaluate. The number of samples can be reduced if we can…

Computation · Statistics 2019-08-06 V. Roshan Joseph , Dianpeng Wang , Li Gu , Shiji Lv , Rui Tuo

We propose a weighting scheme for the proposals within Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and show how this can improve statistical efficiency at no extra computational cost. These methods are most powerful when combined with…

Computation · Statistics 2015-07-01 Espen Bernton , Shihao Yang , Yang Chen , Neil Shephard , Jun S. Liu

This paper presents a new approach to automatically discovering accurate models of complex time series data. Working within a Bayesian nonparametric prior over a symbolic space of Gaussian process time series models, we present a novel…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-20 Feras A. Saad , Brian J. Patton , Matthew D. Hoffman , Rif A. Saurous , Vikash K. Mansinghka

We construct a new framework for accelerating Markov chain Monte Carlo in posterior sampling problems where standard methods are limited by the computational cost of the likelihood, or of numerical models embedded therein. Our approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-06 Patrick R. Conrad , Youssef M. Marzouk , Natesh S. Pillai , Aaron Smith

Bayesian model selection enables comparison and ranking of conceptual subsurface models described by spatial prior models, according to the support provided by available geophysical data. Deep generative neural networks can efficiently…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-05-19 M. Amaya , N. Linde , E. Laloy

In many applications of Bayesian clustering, posterior sampling on the discrete state space of cluster allocations is achieved via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. As it is typically challenging to design transition kernels to…

Computation · Statistics 2019-06-14 Masoud Asgharian , Martin Lysy , Vahid Partovi Nia

We introduce a new Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm with parallel tempering for fitting theoretical models of horizon-scale images of black holes to the interferometric data from the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT). The algorithm…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2020-05-20 Dimitrios Psaltis , Feryal Ozel , Lia Medeiros , Pierre Christian , Junhan Kim , Chi-kwan Chan , Landen J. Conway , Carolyn A. Raithel , Dan Marrone , Tod R. Lauer

Bayesian Decision Trees (DTs) are generally considered a more advanced and accurate model than a regular Decision Tree (DT) because they can handle complex and uncertain data. Existing work on Bayesian DTs uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-31 Efthyvoulos Drousiotis , Alexander M. Phillips , Paul G. Spirakis , Simon Maskell

We consider the problem of fully Bayesian posterior estimation and uncertainty quantification in undirected Gaussian graphical models via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) under recently-developed element-wise graphical priors, such as the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-23 Zejin Gao , Ksheera Sagar , Anindya Bhadra