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The problem of high-quality drought forecasting up to a year in advance is critical for agriculture planning and insurance. Yet, it is still unsolved with reasonable accuracy due to data complexity and aridity stochasticity. We tackle…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-15 Alexander Marusov , Vsevolod Grabar , Yury Maximov , Nazar Sotiriadi , Alexander Bulkin , Alexey Zaytsev

Climate and weather prediction traditionally relies on complex numerical simulations of atmospheric physics. Deep learning approaches, such as transformers, have recently challenged the simulation paradigm with complex network forecasts.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-04-17 Yogesh Verma , Markus Heinonen , Vikas Garg

Accurate prediction of global sea surface temperature at sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale is critical for drought and flood forecasting, as well as for improving disaster preparedness in human society. Government departments or…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-09-10 Longhao Wang , Xuanze Zhang , L. Ruby Leung , Francis H. S. Chiew , Amir AghaKouchak , Kairan Ying , Yongqiang Zhang

Physics-based numerical models have been the bedrock of atmospheric sciences for decades, offering robust solutions but often at the cost of significant computational resources. Deep learning (DL) models have emerged as powerful tools in…

Conventionally, Earth system (e.g., weather and climate) forecasting relies on numerical simulation with complex physical models and are hence both expensive in computation and demanding on domain expertise. With the explosive growth of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-02 Zhihan Gao , Xingjian Shi , Hao Wang , Yi Zhu , Yuyang Wang , Mu Li , Dit-Yan Yeung

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events due to global climate change urges accurate weather prediction. Recently, great advances have been made by the \textbf{end-to-end methods}, thanks to deep learning techniques, but they face…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-24 Shaohan Li , Hao Yang , Min Chen , Xiaolin Qin

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) plays a crucial role in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, particularly from industrial outputs. Using seismic monitoring can aid in an accurate and robust monitoring system to ensure the effectiveness of…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-04-01 Xinquan Huang , Fu Wang , Tariq Alkhalifah

Improving the skill of medium-range (3-8 day) severe weather prediction is crucial for mitigating societal impacts. This study introduces a novel approach leveraging decoder-only transformer networks to post-process AI-based weather…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-24 Zhanxiang Hua , Ryan Sobash , David John Gagne , Yingkai Sha , Alexandra Anderson-Frey

Short-term precipitation forecasting remains challenging due to the difficulty in capturing long-term spatiotemporal dependencies. Current deep learning methods fall short in establishing effective dependencies between conditions and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-18 ChaoRong Li , XuDong Ling , YiLan Xue , Wenjie Luo , LiHong Zhu , FengQing Qin , Yaodong Zhou , Yuanyuan Huang

Accurate forecasting of solar power output is essential for efficient integration of renewable energy into the grid. In this study, an attention-based deep learning model, inspired by transformer architecture, is used for short-term solar…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Ankan Basu , Jyotiraditya Roy , Aditya Datta , Prayas Sanyal , Sumanta Banerjee

We introduce the optimized dynamic mode decomposition algorithm for constructing an adaptive and computationally efficient reduced order model and forecasting tool for global atmospheric chemistry dynamics. By exploiting a low-dimensional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-22 Meghana Velegar , Christoph Keller , J. Nathan Kutz

Machine learning (ML) has often been applied to space weather (SW) problems in recent years. SW originates from solar perturbations and is comprised of the resulting complex variations they cause within the systems between the Sun and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-07 Richard J. Licata , Piyush M. Mehta

We introduce the state-of-the-art deep learning Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Model (DDPM) as a method to infer the volume or number density of giant molecular clouds (GMCs) from projected mass surface density maps. We adopt…

Astrophysics of Galaxies · Physics 2023-06-28 Duo Xu , Jonathan C. Tan , Chia-Jung Hsu , Ye Zhu

Time series data is a key element of big data analytics, commonly found in domains such as finance, healthcare, climate forecasting, and transportation. In large scale real world settings, such data is often high dimensional and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-14 Younghwi Kim , Dohee Kim , Joongrock Kim , Sunghyun Sim

Climate models (CM) are used to evaluate the impact of climate change on the risk of floods and strong precipitation events. However, these numerical simulators have difficulties representing precipitation events accurately, mainly due to…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2021-02-15 Rilwan Adewoyin , Peter Dueben , Peter Watson , Yulan He , Ritabrata Dutta

Physical systems whose dynamics are governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) find applications in numerous fields, from engineering design to weather forecasting. The process of obtaining the solution from such PDEs may be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-21 Pratyush Bhatt , Yash Kumar , Azzeddine Soulaimani

Weather radar data are critical for nowcasting and an integral component of numerical weather prediction models. While weather radar data provide valuable information at high resolution, their ground-based nature limits their availability,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-03-07 Çağlar Küçük , Apostolos Giannakos , Stefan Schneider , Alexander Jann

Time series forecasting remains a central challenge problem in almost all scientific disciplines. We introduce a novel load forecasting method in which observed dynamics are modeled as a forced linear system using Dynamic Mode Decomposition…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-07-13 Daniel Dylewsky , David Barajas-Solano , Tong Ma , Alexandre M. Tartakovsky , J. Nathan Kutz

Urban forecasting has increasingly benefited from high-dimensional spatial data through two primary approaches: graph-based methods that rely on predefined spatial structures, and region-based methods that focus on learning expressive urban…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-06-18 Yuhao Jia , Zile Wu , Shengao Yi , Yifei Sun , Xiao Huang

Accurate renewable energy forecasting is essential to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and enabling grid decarbonization. However, current approaches fail to effectively integrate the rich spatial context of weather patterns with their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-20 Federico Battini