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State-of-the-art methods for conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation make widespread use of representation learning. Here, the idea is to reduce the variance of the low-sample CATE estimation by a (potentially constrained)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-13 Valentyn Melnychuk , Dennis Frauen , Stefan Feuerriegel

Decision-making across various fields, such as medicine, heavily relies on conditional average treatment effects (CATEs). Practitioners commonly make decisions by checking whether the estimated CATE is positive, even though the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-23 Dennis Frauen , Valentyn Melnychuk , Jonas Schweisthal , Mihaela van der Schaar , Stefan Feuerriegel

It is valuable for any decision maker to know the impact of decisions (treatments) on average and for subgroups. The causal machine learning literature has recently provided tools for estimating group average treatment effects (GATE) to…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-10 Nora Bearth , Michael Lechner

While average treatment effects (ATE) and conditional average treatment effects (CATE) provide valuable population- and subgroup-level summaries, they fail to capture uncertainty at the individual level. For high-stakes decision-making,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Juraj Bodik , Yaxuan Huang , Bin Yu

In this paper, we introduce a unified estimator to analyze various treatment effects in causal inference, including but not limited to the average treatment effect (ATE) and the quantile treatment effect (QTE). The proposed estimator is…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-31 Kuan-Hsun Wu , Li-Pang Chen

Estimation of conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) plays an essential role in modern medicine by informing treatment decision-making at a patient level. Several metalearners have been proposed recently to estimate CATEs in an…

Applications · Statistics 2022-09-07 Yizhe Xu , Nikolaos Ignatiadis , Erik Sverdrup , Scott Fleming , Stefan Wager , Nigam Shah

Assume that one is interested in estimating an average treatment effect (ATE), equal to a weighted average of $S$ conditional average treatment effects (CATEs). One has unbiased estimators of the CATEs. One could just average the CATE…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-11 Clément de Chaisemartin

Heterogeneous treatment effects, which vary according to individual covariates, are crucial in fields such as personalized medicine and tailored treatment strategies. In many applications, rather than considering the heterogeneity induced…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-26 Peng Wu , Pengtao Zeng , Zhaoqing Tian , Shaojie Wei

Individual Treatment Effects (ITE) estimation methods have risen in popularity in the last years. Most of the time, individual effects are better presented as Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE). Recently, representation balancing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-30 Ayoub Abraich , Agathe Guilloux , Blaise Hanczar

The Average Treatment Effect (ATE) is a foundational metric in causal inference, widely used to assess intervention efficacy in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). However, in many applications -- particularly in healthcare -- this static…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-23 Julianna Piskorz , Krzysztof Kacprzyk , Harry Amad , Mihaela van der Schaar

Covariate-specific treatment effects (CSTEs) represent heterogeneous treatment effects across subpopulations defined by certain selected covariates. In this article, we consider marginal structural models where CSTEs are linearly…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-05-25 Peng Wu , Zhiqiang Tan , Wenjie Hu , Xiao-Hua Zhou

Traditional causal inference approaches leverage observational study data to estimate the difference in observed and unobserved outcomes for a potential treatment, known as the Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE). However, CATE…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-22 Tianhui Zhou , William E Carson , David Carlson

Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-25 Connor T. Jerzak , Ritwik Vashistha , Adel Daoud

The estimation of average treatment effects (ATEs), defined as the difference in expected outcomes between treatment and control groups, is a central topic in causal inference. This study develops semiparametric efficient estimators for ATE…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Masahiro Kato , Fumiaki Kozai , Ryo Inokuchi

This paper develops a nonparametric model that represents how sequences of outcomes and treatment choices influence one another in a dynamic manner. In this setting, we are interested in identifying the average outcome for individuals in…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-01-16 Sukjin Han

Understanding how treatment effects vary across patient characteristics is essential for personalized medicine, yet randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are often underpowered to detect heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs). We propose a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-22 Amir Asiaee , Chiara Di Gravio , Cole Beck , Yuting Mei , Samhita Pal , Jared D. Huling

Conditional quantile treatment effect (CQTE) can provide insight into the effect of a treatment beyond the conditional average treatment effect (CATE). This ability to provide information over multiple quantiles of the response makes CQTE…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-17 Josh Givens , Henry W J Reeve , Song Liu , Katarzyna Reluga

We propose a framework that aligns Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) estimation with profit maximization. Our method recognizes that, for customers with extreme treatment effects, additional estimation accuracy is unlikely to…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-21 Artem Timoshenko , Caio Waisman

Estimating the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) from observational data is relevant for many applications such as personalized medicine. Here, we focus on the widespread setting where the observational data come from multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Jonas Schweisthal , Dennis Frauen , Mihaela van der Schaar , Stefan Feuerriegel

Scholars from diverse fields increasingly rely on high-frequency spatio-temporal data. Yet, causal inference with these data remains challenging due to spatial spillover and temporal carryover effects. We develop methods to estimate…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-03 Lingxiao Zhou , Kosuke Imai , Jason Lyall , Georgia Papadogeorgou