Related papers: SMURF-THP: Score Matching-based UnceRtainty quanti…

Abstract. Most of the real world data we encounter are asynchronous event sequence, so the last decades have been characterized by the implementation of various point process into the field of social networks,electronic medical records and…

Modeling event sequences of multiple event types with marked temporal point processes (MTPPs) provides a principled way to uncover governing dynamical rules and predict future events. Current neural network approaches to MTPP inference rely…

Multivariate Hawkes Processes (MHPs) are a class of point processes that can account for complex temporal dynamics among event sequences. In this work, we study the accuracy and computational efficiency of three classes of algorithms which,…

Transformer-based language models have set new benchmarks across a wide range of NLP tasks, yet reliably estimating the uncertainty of their predictions remains a significant challenge. Existing uncertainty estimation (UE) techniques often…

Motion forecasting plays a pivotal role in autonomous driving systems, enabling vehicles to execute collision warnings and rational local-path planning based on predictions of the surrounding vehicles. However, prevalent methods often…

In this PhD thesis, we propose a novel framework for uncertainty quantification in machine learning, which is based on proper scores. Uncertainty quantification is an important cornerstone for trustworthy and reliable machine learning…

We propose a Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Neural Hawkes Process for modeling complex multivariate event data with spatio-temporal dynamics. The proposed model extends continuous-time neural Hawkes processes by integrating spatial…

In machine learning, accurately predicting the probability that a specific input is correct is crucial for risk management. This process, known as uncertainty (or confidence) estimation, is particularly important in mission-critical…

In this paper, we are interested in linear prediction of a particular kind of stochastic process, namely a marked temporal point process. The observations are event times recorded on the real line, with marks attached to each event. We show…

Many event sequence data exhibit mutually exciting or inhibiting patterns. Reliable detection of such temporal dependency is crucial for scientific investigation. The de facto model is the Multivariate Hawkes Process (MHP), whose impact…

Irregular and asynchronous event sequences are prevalent in many domains, such as social media, finance, and healthcare. Traditional temporal point processes (TPPs), like Hawkes processes, often struggle to model mutual inhibition and…

Marked Temporal Point Process (MTPP) has been well studied to model the event distribution in marked event streams, which can be used to predict the mark and arrival time of the next event. However, existing studies overlook that the…

Uncertain knowledge graph embedding (UnKGE) methods learn vector representations that capture both structural and uncertainty information to predict scores of unseen triples. However, existing methods produce only point estimates, without…

This paper aims to improve the performance of large language models by addressing the variable computational demands in inference steps, where some tokens require more computational resources than others. We present HARP, a simple…

The classical temporal point process (TPP) constructs an intensity function by taking the occurrence times into account. Nevertheless, occurrence time may not be the only relevant factor, other contextual data, termed covariates, may also…

Uncertainty is an essential consideration for time series forecasting tasks. In this work, we specifically focus on quantifying the uncertainty of traffic forecasting. To achieve this, we develop Deep Spatio-Temporal Uncertainty…

Electronic Health Records (EHR) can be represented as temporal sequences that record the events (medical visits) from patients. Neural temporal point process (NTPP) has achieved great success in modeling event sequences that occur in…

We consider online monitoring of the network event data to detect local changes in a cluster when the affected data stream distribution shifts from one point process to another with different parameters. Specifically, we are interested in…

We adopt the interpretability offered by a parametric, Hawkes-process-inspired conditional probability mass function for the marks and apply variational inference techniques to derive a general and scalable inferential framework for marked…

Terrorist activities often exhibit temporal and spatial clustering, making the multivariate Hawkes process (MHP) a useful statistical model for analysing terrorism across different geographic regions. However, terror attack data from the…