Related papers: Score Matching-based Pseudolikelihood Estimation o…

We propose a Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Neural Hawkes Process for modeling complex multivariate event data with spatio-temporal dynamics. The proposed model extends continuous-time neural Hawkes processes by integrating spatial…

When we use simulation to evaluate the performance of a stochastic system, the simulation often contains input distributions estimated from real-world data; therefore, there is both simulation and input uncertainty in the performance…

The existing barely-supervised medical image segmentation (BSS) methods, adopting a registration-segmentation paradigm, aim to learn from data with very few annotations to mitigate the extreme label scarcity problem. However, this paradigm…

Uncertainty is an essential consideration for time series forecasting tasks. In this work, we specifically focus on quantifying the uncertainty of traffic forecasting. To achieve this, we develop Deep Spatio-Temporal Uncertainty…

Statistical model checking (SMC) is a technique for analysis of probabilistic systems that may be (partially) unknown. We present an SMC algorithm for (unbounded) reachability yielding probably approximately correct (PAC) guarantees on the…

We study the use of Temporal-Difference learning for estimating the structural parameters in dynamic discrete choice models. Our algorithms are based on the conditional choice probability approach but use functional approximations to…

Spatio-temporal point processes (STPPs) model discrete events distributed in time and space, with important applications in areas such as criminology, seismology, epidemiology, and social networks. Traditional models often rely on…

Neural Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP) are flexible models to capture complex temporal inter-dependencies between labeled events. These models inherently learn two predictive distributions: one for the arrival times of events and…

Stochastic models of point patterns in space and time are widely used to issue forecasts or assess risk, and often they affect societally relevant decisions. We adapt the concept of consistent scoring functions and proper scoring rules,…

Machine learning (ML) is playing an increasingly important role in scientific research. In conjunction with classical statistical approaches, ML-assisted analytical strategies have shown great promise in accelerating research findings. This…

Neural network ensembles, such as Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), have shown success in the areas of uncertainty estimation and robustness. However, a crucial challenge prohibits their use in practice. BNNs require a large number of…

Uncertainty quantification is a fundamental problem in the analysis and interpretation of synthetic control (SC) methods. We develop conditional prediction intervals in the SC framework, and provide conditions under which these intervals…

Semantic segmentation of point cloud usually relies on dense annotation that is exhausting and costly, so it attracts wide attention to investigate solutions for the weakly supervised scheme with only sparse points annotated. Existing works…

Accurate spatiotemporal pattern analysis is critical in fields such as urban traffic, meteorology, and public health monitoring. However, existing methods face performance bottlenecks, typically yielding only incremental gains and often…

We study parameter inference in simulation-based stochastic models where the analytical form of the likelihood is unknown. The main difficulty is that score evaluation as a ratio of noisy Monte Carlo estimators induces bias and instability,…

This study introduces an integrated framework for predictive causal inference designed to overcome limitations inherent in conventional single model approaches. Specifically, we combine a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for spatial health state…

Recent advances in probabilistic modelling have led to a large number of simulation-based inference algorithms which do not require numerical evaluation of likelihoods. However, a public benchmark with appropriate performance metrics for…

Machine learning classifiers are probabilistic in nature, and thus inevitably involve uncertainty. Predicting the probability of a specific input to be correct is called uncertainty (or confidence) estimation and is crucial for risk…

Perceptual similarity scores that align with human vision are critical for both training and evaluating computer vision models. Deep perceptual losses, such as LPIPS, achieve good alignment but rely on complex, highly non-linear…

We propose a generic spatiotemporal event forecasting method, which we developed for the National Institute of Justice's (NIJ) Real-Time Crime Forecasting Challenge. Our method is a spatiotemporal forecasting model combining scalable…