Related papers: Improving Robust Decisions with Data
When sample data are governed by an unknown sequence of independent but possibly non-identical distributions, the data-generating process (DGP) in general cannot be perfectly identified from the data. For making decisions facing such…
The distributionally robust Markov Decision Process (MDP) approach asks for a distributionally robust policy that achieves the maximal expected total reward under the most adversarial distribution of uncertain parameters. In this paper, we…
This paper studies Markov Decision Processes under parameter uncertainty. We adapt the distributionally robust optimization framework, and assume that the uncertain parameters are random variables following an unknown distribution, and…
Decision making under uncertainty is challenging since the data-generating process (DGP) is often unknown. Bayesian inference proceeds by estimating the DGP through posterior beliefs about the model's parameters. However, minimising the…
Decision making under uncertainty is challenging as the data-generating process (DGP) is often unknown. Bayesian inference proceeds by estimating the DGP through posterior beliefs on the model's parameters. However, minimising the expected…
The last decade witnessed an explosion in the availability of data for operations research applications. Motivated by this growing availability, we propose a novel schema for utilizing data to design uncertainty sets for robust optimization…
We consider a robust approach to address uncertainty in model parameters in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), which are widely used to model dynamic optimization in many applications. Most prior works consider the case where the uncertainty…
Our goal is to compute a policy that guarantees improved return over a baseline policy even when the available MDP model is inaccurate. The inaccurate model may be constructed, for example, by system identification techniques when the true…
Economists often estimate economic models on data and use the point estimates as a stand-in for the truth when studying the model's implications for optimal decision-making. This practice ignores model ambiguity, exposes the decision…
In robust optimization one seeks to make a decision under uncertainty, where the goal is to find the solution with the best worst-case performance. The set of possible realizations of the uncertain data is described by a so-called…
Distributionally robust optimization (DRO) studies decision problems under uncertainty where the probability distribution governing the uncertain problem parameters is itself uncertain. A key component of any DRO model is its ambiguity set,…
Our goal is to build robust optimization problems for making decisions based on complex data from the past. In robust optimization (RO) generally, the goal is to create a policy for decision-making that is robust to our uncertainty about…
Robustness of decision rules to shifts in the data-generating process is crucial to the successful deployment of decision-making systems. Such shifts can be viewed as interventions on a causal graph, which capture (possibly hypothetical)…
Distributionally Robust Optimisation (DRO) protects risk-averse decision-makers by considering the worst-case risk within an ambiguity set of distributions based on the empirical distribution or a model. To further guard against finite,…
Design under uncertainty is a challenging problem, as a systems performance can be highly sensitive to variations in input parameters and model uncertainty. A conventional approach to addressing such problems is robust optimization, which…
Model selection is a central task in statistics, but standard methods are not robust in misspecified settings where the true data-generating process (DGP) is not in the set of candidate models. The key limitation is that existing methods --…
Markov decision processes (MDP) are a well-established model for sequential decision-making in the presence of probabilities. In robust MDP (RMDP), every action is associated with an uncertainty set of probability distributions, modelling…
We study stochastic programs where the decision-maker cannot observe the distribution of the exogenous uncertainties but has access to a finite set of independent samples from this distribution. In this setting, the goal is to find a…
Robust optimization is a popular paradigm for modeling and solving two- and multi-stage decision-making problems affected by uncertainty. In many real-world applications, the time of information discovery is decision-dependent and the…
Robust MDPs (RMDPs) can be used to compute policies with provable worst-case guarantees in reinforcement learning. The quality and robustness of an RMDP solution are determined by the ambiguity set---the set of plausible transition…