Related papers: Guaranteed Coverage Prediction Intervals with Gaus…

Conformal prediction (CP) is a framework to quantify uncertainty of machine learning classifiers including deep neural networks. Given a testing example and a trained classifier, CP produces a prediction set of candidate labels with a…

This work presents a novel method for extracting potential barrier distributions from experimental fusion cross sections. We utilize a simple Gaussian process regression (GPR) framework to model the observed cross sections as a function of…

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are powerful non-parametric Bayesian regression models that allow exact posterior inference, but exhibit high computational and memory costs. In order to improve scalability of GPs, approximate posterior inference…

Conformal Prediction (CP) has recently received a tremendous amount of interest, leading to a wide range of new theoretical and methodological results for predictive inference with formal theoretical guarantees. However, the vast majority…

Conformal inference is a popular tool for constructing prediction intervals (PI). We consider here the scenario of post-selection/selective conformal inference, that is PIs are reported only for individuals selected from an unlabeled test…

The Gaussian process (GP) regression can be severely biased when the data are contaminated by outliers. This paper presents a new robust GP regression algorithm that iteratively trims the most extreme data points. While the new algorithm…

Photovoltaic (PV) power is affected by weather conditions, making the power generated from the PV systems uncertain. Solving this problem would help improve the reliability and cost effectiveness of the grid, and could help reduce reliance…

Gaussian process (GP) regression is a flexible, nonparametric approach to regression that naturally quantifies uncertainty. In many applications, the number of responses and covariates are both large, and a goal is to select covariates that…

A practical approach to evaluate performance of a Gaussian process regression models (GPR) for irregularly sampled sparse time-series is introduced. The approach entails construction of a secondary autoregressive model using the fine scale…

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free method for constructing prediction sets with marginal finite-sample coverage guarantees, making it a suitable framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in safety-critical object…

Conformal Prediction is a framework that produces prediction intervals based on the output from a machine learning algorithm. In this paper we explore the case when training data is made up of multiple parts available in different sources…

This work introduces the concept of parametric Gaussian processes (PGPs), which is built upon the seemingly self-contradictory idea of making Gaussian processes parametric. Parametric Gaussian processes, by construction, are designed to…

In application areas where data generation is expensive, Gaussian processes are a preferred supervised learning model due to their high data-efficiency. Particularly in model-based control, Gaussian processes allow the derivation of…

Gaussian process (GP) regression is a powerful probabilistic modeling technique with built-in uncertainty quantification. When one has access to multiple correlated simulations (tasks), it is common to fit a multitask GP (MTGP) surrogate…

Gaussian processes (GPs) are non-parametric probabilistic regression models that are popular due to their flexibility, data efficiency, and well-calibrated uncertainty estimates. However, standard GP models assume homoskedastic Gaussian…

Gaussian processes (GP) are Bayesian non-parametric models that are widely used for probabilistic regression. Unfortunately, it cannot scale well with large data nor perform real-time predictions due to its cubic time cost in the data size.…

Gaussian processes (GP) are Bayesian non-parametric models that are widely used for probabilistic regression. Unfortunately, it cannot scale well with large data nor perform real-time predictions due to its cubic time cost in the data size.…

Accurately predicting when and where ambulance call-outs occur can reduce response times and ensure the patient receives urgent care sooner. Here we present a novel method for ambulance demand prediction using Gaussian process regression…

Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) is widely used for inferring functions from noisy data. GPR crucially relies on the choice of a kernel, which might be specified in terms of a collection of hyperparameters that must be chosen or learned.…

Several uncertainty estimation methods have been recently proposed for machine translation evaluation. While these methods can provide a useful indication of when not to trust model predictions, we show in this paper that the majority of…