Related papers: Reducing Uncertainty in Sea-level Rise Prediction:…
It has been widely debated whether Arctic sea-ice loss can reach a tipping point beyond which a large sea-ice area disappears abruptly. The theory of dynamical systems predicts a slowing down when a system destabilises towards a tipping…
Extreme precipitation events with large spatial extents may have more severe impacts than localized events as they can lead to widespread flooding. It is debated how climate change may affect the spatial extent of precipitation extremes,…
This paper describes how to analyze the influence of Earth system variables on the errors when providing temperature forecasts. The initial framework to get the data has been based on previous research work, which resulted in a very…
There is a lot of data about mean sea level variation from studies conducted around the globe. This data is dispersed, lacks organization along with standardization, and in most cases, it is not available online. In some instances, when it…
Accurately forecasting Arctic sea ice from subseasonal to seasonal scales has been a major scientific effort with fundamental challenges at play. In addition to physics-based earth system models, researchers have been applying multiple…
Accurate forecasting is critical for reliable power grid operations, particularly as the share of renewable generation, such as wind and solar, continues to grow. Given the inherent uncertainty and variability in renewable generation,…
We use numerical climate simulations, paleoclimate data, and modern observations to study the effect of growing ice melt from Antarctica and Greenland. Meltwater tends to stabilize the ocean column, inducing amplifying feedbacks that…
Flood-related risks to people and property are expected to increase in the future due to environmental and demographic changes. It is important to quantify and effectively communicate flood hazards and exposure to inform the design and…
Weather is a phenomenon that affects everything and everyone around us on a daily basis. Weather prediction has been an important point of study for decades as researchers have tried to predict the weather and climatic changes using…
Prediction is a central goal and a yet-unresolved challenge in the investigation of oceanic rogue waves. Here we define a horizon of predictability for oceanic rogue waves and derive, via extensive computational experiments, the first…
Over the past decade, it has become clear that the radiative response to surface temperature change depends on the spatially varying structure in the temperature field, a phenomenon known as the "pattern effect''. The pattern effect is…
Probabilistic forecasting is crucial for real-world spatiotemporal systems, such as climate, energy, and urban environments, where quantifying uncertainty is essential for informed, risk-aware decision-making. While diffusion models have…
Various complex water management decisions are made in snow-dominant watersheds with the knowledge of Snow-Water Equivalent (SWE) -- a key measure widely used to estimate the water content of a snowpack. However, forecasting SWE is…
Reliable estimates of sea level return levels are crucial for coastal flooding risk assessments and for coastal flood defence design. We describe a novel method for estimating extreme sea levels that is the first to capture seasonality,…
Sea ice cover in the Arctic and Antarctic is an important indicator of changes in the climate, with important environmental, economic and security consequences. The complexity of the spatio-temporal dynamics of sea ice makes it difficult to…
Accurate forecasts of the impact of spatial weather and pan-European socio-economic and political risks on hourly electricity demand for the mid-term horizon are crucial for strategic decision-making amidst the inherent uncertainty. Most…
In this paper we discuss and address the challenges of predicting extreme atmospheric events like intense rainfall, hail, and strong winds. These events can cause significant damage and have become more frequent due to climate change.…
A new method of regime shift detection in the correlation coefficient is proposed. The method is designed to find multiple change-points with unknown locations in time series. It signals a possible regime shift in real time and allows for…
Arctic amplification has altered the climate patterns both regionally and globally, resulting in more frequent and more intense extreme weather events in the past few decades. The essential part of Arctic amplification is the unprecedented…
Seasonal climate predictions support planning and risk management by offering early information of the most likely-to-occur climate conditions in the coming months, and associated uncertainties. Ensemble forecasts enable this by simulating…