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Recent works have proposed various explanations for the ability of modern large language models (LLMs) to perform in-context prediction. We propose an alternative conceptual viewpoint from an information-geometric and statistical…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2026-02-23 Sreejith Sreekumar , Nir Weinberger

We consider parameter estimation in finite hidden state space Markov models with time-dependent inhomogeneous noise, where the inhomogeneity vanishes sufficiently fast. Based on the concept of asymptotic mean stationary processes we prove…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-02 Manuel Diehn , Axel Munk , Daniel Rudolf

The association between a continuous and an ordinal variable is commonly modeled through the polyserial correlation model. However, this model, which is based on a partially-latent normality assumption, may be misspecified in practice, due…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-11 Max Welz

Q-learning with neural network function approximation (neural Q-learning for short) is among the most prevalent deep reinforcement learning algorithms. Despite its empirical success, the non-asymptotic convergence rate of neural Q-learning…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-03-05 Pan Xu , Quanquan Gu

Linear mixed-effects models are widely used in analyzing clustered or repeated measures data. We propose a quasi-likelihood approach for estimation and inference of the unknown parameters in linear mixed-effects models with high-dimensional…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-10 Sai Li , Tony T. Cai , Hongzhe Li

This paper proposes a novel exact maximum likelihood (ML) estimation method for general Gaussian processes, where all parameters are estimated jointly. The exact ML estimator (MLE) is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-08 Tetsuya Takabatake , Jun Yu , Chen Zhang

We study the convergence of $Q$-learning with linear function approximation. Our key contribution is the introduction of a novel multi-Bellman operator that extends the traditional Bellman operator. By exploring the properties of this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-02 Diogo S. Carvalho , Pedro A. Santos , Francisco S. Melo

This paper proposes a closed-form optimal estimator based on the theory of estimating functions for a class of linear ARCH models. The estimating function (EF) estimator has the advantage over the widely used maximum likelihood (ML) and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-05 Ajay Chandra

We introduce the concept of quantum minimal learning machine (QMLM), a supervised similarity-based learning algorithm. The algorithm is conceptually based on a classical machine learning model and adopted to work with quantum data. We will…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-03-10 Clemens Lindner , Joonas Hämäläinen , Matti Raasakka

Consider the nonparametric logistic regression problem. In the logistic regression, we usually consider the maximum likelihood estimator, and the excess risk is the expectation of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between the true and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-26 Atsutomo Yara , Yoshikazu Terada

In this paper, the maximum L$q$-likelihood estimator (ML$q$E), a new parameter estimator based on nonextensive entropy [Kibernetika 3 (1967) 30--35] is introduced. The properties of the ML$q$E are studied via asymptotic analysis and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-02-25 Davide Ferrari , Yuhong Yang

A Maximum Likelihood recursive state estimator is derived for non-linear and non-Gaussian state-space models. The estimator combines a particle filter to generate the conditional density and the Expectation Maximization algorithm to compute…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-22 Mohammad S. Ramadan , Robert R. Bitmead

Quantum state tomography (QST), the task of estimating an unknown quantum state given measurement outcomes, is essential to building reliable quantum computing devices. Whereas computing the maximum-likelihood (ML) estimate corresponds to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-08-30 Chien-Ming Lin , Yu-Ming Hsu , Yen-Huan Li

We study estimation of large Dynamic Factor models implemented through the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm, jointly with the Kalman smoother. We prove that as both the cross-sectional dimension, $n$, and the sample size, $T$,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-26 Matteo Barigozzi , Matteo Luciani

This paper is first devoted to study an adaptive wavelet based estimator of the long memory parameter for linear processes in a general semi-parametric frame. This is an extension of Bardet {\it et al.} (2008) which only concerned Gaussian…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-12-08 Jean-Marc Bardet , Hatem Bibi

We study reinforcement learning with linear function approximation and finite-memory approximations for partially observed Markov decision processes (POMDPs). We first present an algorithm for the value evaluation of finite-memory feedback…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-05-22 Ali Devran Kara

We suggest an iterative approach to computing K-step maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) of the parametric components in semiparametric models based on their profile likelihoods. The higher order convergence rate of K-step MLE mainly depends…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-08-23 Guang Cheng

Mixture of autoregressions (MoAR) models provide a model-based approach to the clustering of time series data. The maximum likelihood (ML) estimation of MoAR models requires the evaluation of products of large numbers of densities of normal…

Computation · Statistics 2016-10-19 Hien D Nguyen , Geoffrey J McLachlan , Pierre Orban , Pierre Bellec , Andrew L Janke

Maximum-likelihood estimation is applied to identification of an unknown quantum mechanical process represented by a ``black box''. In contrast to linear reconstruction schemes the proposed approach always yields physically sensible…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Jaromir Fiurasek , Zdenek Hradil

This paper considers estimation of large dynamic factor models with common and idiosyncratic trends by means of the Expectation Maximization algorithm, implemented jointly with the Kalman smoother. We show that, as the cross-sectional…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-10-23 Matteo Barigozzi , Matteo Luciani