Related papers: Testing exchangeability by pairwise betting
In this paper we put forward the viewpoint that the notion of stress testing financial institutions and engineered systems can also be made viable appropos the stress testing an individual's strength of conviction in a probability…
We consider multi-player graph games with partial-observation and parity objective. While the decision problem for three-player games with a coalition of the first and second players against the third player is undecidable, we present a…
We consider the structural change in a class of discrete valued time series that the conditional distribution follows a one-parameter exponential family. We propose a change-point test based on the maximum likelihood estimator of the…
Computing reachability probabilities is a fundamental problem in the analysis of probabilistic programs. This paper aims at a comprehensive and comparative account on various martingale-based methods for over- and under-approximating…
Uncertainty quantification and false selection error rate (FSR) control are crucial in many high-consequence scenarios, so we need models with good interpretability. This article introduces the optimality function for the binary…
The problem of scheduling with testing in the framework of explorable uncertainty models environments where some preliminary action can influence the duration of a task. In the model, each job has an unknown processing time that can be…
Rank aggregation with pairwise comparisons is widely encountered in sociology, politics, economics, psychology, sports, etc . Given the enormous social impact and the consequent incentives, the potential adversary has a strong motivation to…
We study multistep Bayesian betting strategies in coin-tossing games in the framework of game-theoretic probability of Shafer and Vovk (2001). We show that by a countable mixture of these strategies, a gambler or an investor can exploit…
Algorithms for model checking and satisfiability of the modal $\mu$-calculus start by converting formulas to alternating parity tree automata. Thus, model checking is reduced to checking acceptance by tree automata and satisfiability to…
We address the model checking problem for shared memory concurrent programs modeled as multi-pushdown systems. We consider here boolean programs with a finite number of threads and recursive procedures. It is well-known that the model…
Focusing on the bipartite Stable Marriage problem, we investigate different robustness measures related to stable matchings. We analyze the computational complexity of computing them and analyze their behavior in extensive experiments on…
A number of applications require two-sample testing on ranked preference data. For instance, in crowdsourcing, there is a long-standing question of whether pairwise comparison data provided by people is distributed similar to…
Comparison data arises in many important contexts, e.g. shopping, web clicks, or sports competitions. Typically we are given a dataset of comparisons and wish to train a model to make predictions about the outcome of unseen comparisons. In…
Selectivity estimation of a boolean query based on frequent itemsets can be solved by describing the problem by a linear program. However, the number of variables in the equations is exponential, rendering the approach tractable only for…
Evolutionary game theory classically investigates which behavioral patterns are evolutionarily successful in a single game. More recently, a number of contributions have studied the evolution of preferences instead: which subjective…
It has a long tradition to study trust behavior among humans or artificial agents by investigating the trust game. Although previous studies based on evolutionary game theory have revealed that trust and trustworthiness can be promoted if…
Conjoint analysis is a popular experimental design used to measure multidimensional preferences. Researchers examine how varying a factor of interest, while controlling for other relevant factors, influences decision-making. Currently,…
A martingale framework for concept change detection based on testing data exchangeability was recently proposed (Ho, 2005). In this paper, we describe the proposed change-detection test based on the Doob's Maximal Inequality and show that…
Suppose that at any stage of a statistical experiment a control variable $X$ that affects the distribution of the observed data $Y$ at this stage can be used. The distribution of $Y$ depends on some unknown parameter $\theta$, and we…
In sequential anytime-valid inference, any admissible procedure must be based on e-processes: generalizations of test martingales that quantify the accumulated evidence against a composite null hypothesis at any stopping time. This paper…