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Related papers: PAC Prediction Sets Under Label Shift

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Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free method for constructing prediction sets with marginal finite-sample coverage guarantees, making it a suitable framework for reliable uncertainty quantification in safety-critical object…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Christopher Ries , Moussa Kassem Sbeyti , Nicolas Bianco , Nadja Klein

Many important computer vision applications are naturally formulated as regression problems. Within medical imaging, accurate regression models have the potential to automate various tasks, helping to lower costs and improve patient…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-08 Fredrik K. Gustafsson , Martin Danelljan , Thomas B. Schön

Data following an interval structure are increasingly prevalent in many scientific applications. In medicine, clinical events are often monitored between two clinical visits, making the exact time of the event unknown and generating…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-01 Carlos García Meixide , Michael R. Kosorok , Marcos Matabuena

We study the problem of class distribution estimation under dataset shift. On the training dataset, both features and class labels are observed while on the test dataset only the features can be observed. The task then is the estimation of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-30 Dirk Tasche

With the widespread success of deep neural networks in science and technology, it is becoming increasingly important to quantify the uncertainty of the predictions produced by deep learning. In this paper, we introduce a new method that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-15 Qingyang Wu , He Li , Lexin Li , Zhou Yu

Assessing uncertainty is an important step towards ensuring the safety and reliability of machine learning systems. Existing uncertainty estimation techniques may fail when their modeling assumptions are not met, e.g. when the data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-01-24 Volodymyr Kuleshov , Stefano Ermon

Standard conformal prediction methods provide a marginal coverage guarantee, which means that for a random test point, the conformal prediction set contains the true label with a user-specified probability. In many classification problems,…

Conformal prediction (CP) provides model-agnostic uncertainty quantification with guaranteed coverage, but conventional methods often produce overly conservative uncertainty sets, especially in multi-dimensional settings. This limitation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-12 Minxing Zheng , Shixiang Zhu

Self-training often falls short under distribution shifts due to an increased discrepancy between prediction confidence and actual accuracy. This typically necessitates computationally demanding methods such as neighborhood or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-04 Taejong Joo , Diego Klabjan

Estimating how uncertain an AI system is in its predictions is important to improve the safety of such systems. Uncertainty in predictive can result from uncertainty in model parameters, irreducible data uncertainty and uncertainty due to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-03 Andrey Malinin , Mark Gales

Conformal prediction (CP) is a general framework to quantify the predictive uncertainty of machine learning models that uses a set prediction to include the true label with a valid probability. To align the uncertainty measured by CP,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Xuesong Jia , Yuanjie Shi , Ziquan Liu , Yi Xu , Yan Yan

In this paper, we study the problem of fair classification in the presence of prior probability shifts, where the training set distribution differs from the test set. This phenomenon can be observed in the yearly records of several…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-08 Arpita Biswas , Suvam Mukherjee

We present a novel approach to uncertainty quantification in classification tasks based on label-wise decomposition of uncertainty measures. This label-wise perspective allows uncertainty to be quantified at the individual class level,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Yusuf Sale , Paul Hofman , Timo Löhr , Lisa Wimmer , Thomas Nagler , Eyke Hüllermeier

While the accuracy of modern deep learning models has significantly improved in recent years, the ability of these models to generate uncertainty estimates has not progressed to the same degree. Uncertainty methods are designed to provide…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-17 Adam M. Oberman , Chris Finlay , Alexander Iannantuono , Tiago Salvador

Distributional ambiguity sets provide quantifiable ways to characterize the uncertainty about the true probability distribution of random variables of interest. This makes them a key element in data-driven robust optimization by exploiting…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-09-26 Dimitris Boskos , Jorge Cortés , Sonia Martínez

Accurate quantification of model uncertainty has long been recognized as a fundamental requirement for trusted AI. In regression tasks, uncertainty is typically quantified using prediction intervals calibrated to a specific operating point,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-03 Jiri Navratil , Benjamin Elder , Matthew Arnold , Soumya Ghosh , Prasanna Sattigeri

We present a data-driven framework for reachability analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems that requires no explicit model. A denoising diffusion probabilistic model learns the time-evolving state distribution of a dynamical system from…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-04-02 Yanliang Huang , Peng Xie , Wenyuan Wu , Zhuoqi Zeng , Amr Alanwar

We study ``selective'' or ``conditional'' classification problems under an agnostic setting. Classification tasks commonly focus on modeling the relationship between features and categories that captures the vast majority of data. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-04 Jizhou Huang , Brendan Juba

We develop a theory of high-arity PAC learning, which is statistical learning in the presence of "structured correlation". In this theory, hypotheses are either graphs, hypergraphs or, more generally, structures in finite relational…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-18 Leonardo N. Coregliano , Maryanthe Malliaris

Transfer learning uses a data model, trained to make predictions or inferences on data from one population, to make reliable predictions or inferences on data from another population. Most existing transfer learning approaches are based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-01 Jimmy Hickey , Jonathan P. Williams , Emily C. Hector