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The accurate prediction of time-changing covariances is an important problem in the modeling of multivariate financial data. However, some of the most popular models suffer from a) overfitting problems and multiple local optima, b) failure…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-06-04 Yue Wu , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato , Zoubin Ghahramani

Financial sentiment analysis plays a crucial role in informing investment decisions, assessing market risk, and predicting stock price trends. Existing works in financial sentiment analysis have not considered the impact of stock prices or…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-12-25 Chaithra , Kamesh Kadimisetty , Biju R Mohan

Stock trend analysis has been an influential time-series prediction topic due to its lucrative and inherently chaotic nature. Many models looking to accurately predict the trend of stocks have been based on Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs).…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-05-25 Harsimrat Kaeley , Ye Qiao , Nader Bagherzadeh

A novel social networks sentiment analysis model is proposed based on Twitter sentiment score (TSS) for real-time prediction of the future stock market price FTSE 100, as compared with conventional econometric models of investor sentiment…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2020-04-23 Xinyi Guo , Jinfeng Li

We build a new measure of credit and financial market sentiment using Natural Language Processing on Twitter data. We find that the Twitter Financial Sentiment Index (TFSI) correlates highly with corporate bond spreads and other price- and…

General Economics · Economics 2023-05-26 Travis Adams , Andrea Ajello , Diego Silva , Francisco Vazquez-Grande

As input data distributions evolve, the predictive performance of machine learning models tends to deteriorate. In the past, predictive performance was considered the key indicator to monitor. However, explanation aspects have come to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-25 Carlos Mougan , Klaus Broelemann , Gjergji Kasneci , Thanassis Tiropanis , Steffen Staab

Financial event studies, ubiquitous in finance research, typically use linear factor models with known factors to estimate abnormal returns and identify causal effects of information events. This paper demonstrates that when factor models…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-20 Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham , Tianshu Lyu

In this paper, we propose a model to analyze sentiment of online stock forum and use the information to predict the stock volatility in the Chinese market. We have labeled the sentiment of the online financial posts and make the dataset…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2017-05-09 Yifan Liu , Zengchang Qin , Pengyu Li , Tao Wan

Neural networks have revolutionized many empirical fields, yet their application to financial time series forecasting remains controversial. In this study, we demonstrate that the conventional practice of estimating models locally in…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-02-21 Chen Liu , Minh-Ngoc Tran , Chao Wang , Richard Gerlach , Robert Kohn

The financial market trend forecasting method is emerging as a hot topic in financial markets today. Many challenges still currently remain, and various researches related thereto have been actively conducted. Especially, recent research of…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-04-06 Jonghyeon Min

This study integrates real-time sentiment analysis from financial news, GPT-2 and FinBERT, with technical indicators and time-series models like ARIMA and ETS to optimize S&P 500 trading strategies. By merging sentiment data with momentum…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-07-15 Haojie Liu , Zihan Lin , Randall R. Rojas

Social media is increasingly used by humans to express their feelings and opinions in the form of short text messages. Detecting sentiments in the text has a wide range of applications including identifying anxiety or depression of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2018-07-23 Shaunak Joshi , Deepali Deshpande

Given the rapidly evolving nature of social media and people's views, word usage changes over time. Consequently, the performance of a classifier trained on old textual data can drop dramatically when tested on newer data. While research in…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-08-31 Rabab Alkhalifa , Elena Kochkina , Arkaitz Zubiaga

Most instruments - formalisms, concepts, and metrics - for social networks analysis fail to capture their dynamics. Typical systems exhibit different scales of dynamics, ranging from the fine-grain dynamics of interactions (which recently…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2011-02-04 Nicola Santoro , Walter Quattrociocchi , Paola Flocchini , Arnaud Casteigts , Frederic Amblard

Graph models provide efficient tools to capture the underlying structure of data defined over networks. Many real-world network topologies are subject to change over time. Learning to model the dynamic interactions between entities in such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-03 Amirhossein Javaheri , Jiaxi Ying , Daniel P. Palomar , Farokh Marvasti

In many real-world scenarios, we often deal with streaming data that is sequentially collected over time. Due to the non-stationary nature of the environment, the streaming data distribution may change in unpredictable ways, which is known…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-07 Wendi Li , Xiao Yang , Weiqing Liu , Yingce Xia , Jiang Bian

Nowadays, financial data analysis is becoming increasingly important in the business market. As companies collect more and more data from daily operations, they expect to extract useful knowledge from existing collected data to help make…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-09-13 Fan Cai , Nhien-An Le-Khac , M-T. Kechadi

The purpose of this study is to estimate the correlation structure between multiple assets using financial text analysis. In recent years, as the background of elevating inflation in the global economy and monetary policy tightening by…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-05-24 Yasuhiro Nakayama , Tomochika Sawaki , Issei Furuya , Shunsuke Tamura

Rapid increase in the volume of sentiment rich social media on the web has resulted in an increased interest among researchers regarding Sentimental Analysis and opinion mining. However, with so much social media available on the web,…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2014-10-28 Chetan Kaushik , Atul Mishra

This article introduces a novel method for detecting distinctive structural changes in economic data, particularly within frequency distribution tables. The approach identifies significant shifts in the distribution of a variable over time…

Applications · Statistics 2025-09-04 Joanna Dębicka , Edyta Mazurek