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Semiparametric regression offers a flexible framework for modeling non-linear relationships between a response and covariates. A prime example are generalized additive models where splines (say) are used to approximate non-linear functional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-05 Francis K. C. Hui , Chong You , Han Lin Shang , Samuel Müller

The Poisson model is frequently employed to describe count data, but in a Bayesian context it leads to an analytically intractable posterior probability distribution. In this work, we analyze a variational Gaussian approximation to the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-02-14 Simon Arridge , Kazufumi Ito , Bangti Jin , Chen Zhang

We study approximation methods for a large class of mixed models with a probit link function that includes mixed versions of the binomial model, the multinomial model, and generalized survival models. The class of models is special because…

Computation · Statistics 2021-10-28 Benjamin Christoffersen , Mark Clements , Hedvig Kjellström , Keith Humphreys

This paper introduces a method to approximate Gaussian process regression by representing the problem as a stochastic differential equation and using variational inference to approximate solutions. The approximations are compared with full…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-01-08 Wil O C Ward , Mauricio A Álvarez

Context. Whenever correlation functions are used for inference about cosmological parameters in the context of a Bayesian analysis, the likelihood function of correlation functions needs to be known. Usually, it is approximated as a…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2013-08-06 Philipp Wilking , Peter Schneider

We propose a unified, yet simple to code, non-conjugate variational Bayes algorithm for posterior approximation of generic Bayesian generalized mixed effect models. Specifically, we consider regression models identified by a linear…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-14 Cristian Castiglione , Mauro Bernardi

Gaussian graphical models typically assume a homogeneous structure across all subjects, which is often restrictive in applications. In this article, we propose a weighted pseudo-likelihood approach for graphical modeling which allows…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-17 Sutanoy Dasgupta , Peng Zhao , Jacob Helwig , Prasenjit Ghosh , Debdeep Pati , Bani K. Mallick

The Laplace approximation has been one of the workhorses of Bayesian inference. It often delivers good approximations in practice despite the fact that it does not strictly take into account where the volume of posterior density lies.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-02 Nikolaos Gianniotis

We obtain an asymptotic normality result that reveals the precise asymptotic behavior of the maximum likelihood estimators of parameters for a very general class of linear mixed models containing cross random effects. In achieving the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-10 Jiming Jiang , Matt P. Wand , Swarnadip Ghosh

Gaussian process models are flexible, Bayesian non-parametric approaches to regression. Properties of multivariate Gaussians mean that they can be combined linearly in the manner of additive models and via a link function (like in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-04-19 Alan D. Saul , James Hensman , Aki Vehtari , Neil D. Lawrence

The likelihood function represents statistical evidence in the context of data and a probability model. Considerable theory has demonstrated that evidence strength for different parameter values can be interpreted from the ratio of…

Applications · Statistics 2016-11-17 Zeynep Baskurt , Lisa Strug

Gaussian process regression is a powerful Bayesian nonlinear regression method. Recent research has enabled the capture of many types of observations using non-Gaussian likelihoods. To deal with various tasks in spatial modeling, we benefit…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-26 Yuta Shikuri

Gibbs random fields play an important role in statistics, however, the resulting likelihood is typically unavailable due to an intractable normalizing constant. Composite likelihoods offer a principled means to construct useful…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-09 Julien Stoehr , Nial Friel

Composite likelihood provides approximate inference when the full likelihood is intractable and sub-likelihood functions of marginal events can be evaluated relatively easily. It has been successfully applied for many complex models.…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-09-05 Wentao Li , Rosabeth White , Dennis Prangle

Generalized linear models, such as logistic regression, are widely used to model the association between a treatment and a binary outcome as a function of baseline covariates. However, the coefficients of a logistic regression model…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-01-04 Jiaqi Yin , Sonia Markes , Thomas S. Richardson , Linbo Wang

The PAC-Bayesian approach is a powerful set of techniques to derive non- asymptotic risk bounds for random estimators. The corresponding optimal distribution of estimators, usually called the Gibbs posterior, is unfortunately intractable.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-16 Pierre Alquier , James Ridgway , Nicolas Chopin

This paper focuses on variational inference with intractable likelihood functions that can be unbiasedly estimated. A flexible variational approximation based on Gaussian mixtures is developed, by adopting the mixture population Monte Carlo…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-12-02 Zhijian He , Shifeng Huo , Tianhui Yang

We present exact non-Gaussian joint likelihoods for auto- and cross-correlation functions on arbitrarily masked spherical Gaussian random fields. Our considerations apply to spin-0 as well as spin-2 fields but are demonstrated here for the…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2025-09-11 Veronika Oehl , Tilman Tröster

A new type of nonstationary Gaussian process model is developed for approximating computationally expensive functions. The new model is a composite of two Gaussian processes, where the first one captures the smooth global trend and the…

Applications · Statistics 2013-01-14 Shan Ba , V. Roshan Joseph

Rue and Held (2005) proposed a method for efficiently computing the Gaussian likelihood for stationary Markov random field models, when the data locations fall on a complete regular grid, and the model has no additive error term. The…

Computation · Statistics 2019-12-16 Joseph Guinness , Ilse C. F. Ipsen