Related papers: Mack's estimator motivated by large exposure asymp…
Mack's distribution-free chain ladder reserving model belongs to the most popular approaches in non-life insurance mathematics. Proposed to determine the first two moments of the reserve, it does not allow to identify the whole distribution…
We extend a recently established asymptotic normality theorem for generalized linear mixed models to include the dispersion parameter. The new results show that the maximum likelihood estimators of all model parameters have asymptotically…
This article shows how coupled Markov chains that meet exactly after a random number of iterations can be used to generate unbiased estimators of the solutions of the Poisson equation. Through this connection, we re-derive known unbiased…
We propose an asymptotic theory for distribution forecasting from the log normal chain-ladder model. The theory overcomes the difficulty of convoluting log normal variables and takes estimation error into account. The results differ from…
The insurance model when the amount of claims depends on the state of the insured person (healthy, ill, or dead) and claims are connected in a Markov chain is investigated. The signed compound Poisson approximation is applied to the…
The Chain-Ladder (CL) method remains the dominant macro-level technique for claims reserving in non-life insurance, yet its classical formulation lacks a coherent probabilistic foundation. Existing stochastic extensions-including the Mack…
Hidden Markov models are versatile tools for modeling sequential observations, where it is assumed that a hidden state process selects which of finitely many distributions generates any given observation. Specifically for time series of…
This paper is devoted to the multivariate estimation of a vector of Poisson means. A novel loss function that penalises bad estimates of each of the parameters and the sum (or equivalently the mean) of the parameters is introduced. Under…
Cascades of Poisson processes are probabilistic models for spatio-temporal phenomena in which (i) previous events may trigger subsequent events, and (ii) both the background and triggering processes are conditionally Poisson. Such phenomena…
In this article we study the asymptotic predictive optimality of a model selection criterion based on the cross-validatory predictive density, already available in the literature. For a dependent variable and associated explanatory…
Suppose that $X_1,X_2,\ldots$ are a stream of independent, identically distributed Poisson random variables with mean $\mu$. This work presents a new estimate $\mu_k$ for $\mu$ with the property that the distribution of the relative error…
We consider the problem of estimating the asymptotic variance of a function defined on a Markov chain, an important step for statistical inference of the stationary mean. We design a novel recursive estimator that requires $O(1)$…
Highly robust and efficient estimators for the generalized linear model with a dispersion parameter are proposed. The estimators are based on three steps. In the first step the maximum rank correlation estimator is used to consistently…
Datasets from the fields of bioinformatics, chemometrics, and face recognition are typically characterized by small samples of high-dimensional data. Among the many variants of linear discriminant analysis that have been proposed in order…
In this article, we develop a modern perspective on Akaike's Information Criterion and Mallows' Cp for model selection. Despite the diff erences in their respective motivation, they are equivalent in the special case of Gaussian linear…
We generalize the na\"ive estimator of a Poisson regression model with measurement errors as discussed in Kukush et al. [1]. The explanatory variable is not always normally distributed as they assume. In this study, we assume that the…
We revisit the famous Mack's model which gives an estimate for the conditional mean squared error of prediction of the chain-ladder claims reserves. We introduce a stochastic differential equation driven by a Brownian motion to model the…
Accurate estimates of causal effects play a key role in decision-making across applications such as healthcare, economics, and operations. In the absence of randomized experiments, a common approach to estimating causal effects uses…
The sensitivity of loss reserving techniques to outliers in the data or deviations from model assumptions is a well known challenge. It has been shown that the popular chain-ladder reserving approach is at significant risk to such aberrant…
The Poisson distribution of order $k$ is a special case of a compound Poisson distribution. For $k=1$ it is the standard Poisson distribution. Our main result is a proof that for sufficiently small values of the rate parameter $\lambda$,…