Related papers: Improved Convergence Rate of Nested Simulation wit…
This paper deals with the consistency of the least squares estimator of a convex regression function when the predictor is multidimensional. We characterize and discuss the computation of such an estimator via the solution of certain…
Semiparametric single-index assumptions are convenient and widely used dimen\-sion reduction approaches that represent a compromise between the parametric and fully nonparametric models for regressions or conditional laws. In a mean…
We show that deliberately introducing a nested simulation stage can lead to significant variance reductions when comparing two stopping times by Monte Carlo. We derive the optimal number of nested simulations and prove that the algorithm is…
Nested sampling (NS) is a stochastic method for computing the log-evidence of a Bayesian problem. It relies on stochastic estimates of prior volumes enclosed by likelihood contours, which limits the accuracy of the log-evidence calculation.…
In this paper, we investigate time-varying nonlinear time series regression for a broad class of locally stationary time series. First, we propose sieve nonparametric estimators for the time-varying regression functions that achieve uniform…
Computing the variance of a conditional expectation has often been of importance in uncertainty quantification. Sun et al. has introduced an unbiased nested Monte Carlo estimator, which they call $1\frac{1}{2}$-level simulation since the…
The problem of computing the conditional expectation E[f (Y)|X] with least-square Monte-Carlo is of general importance and has been widely studied. To solve this problem, it is usually assumed that one has as many samples of Y as of X.…
For the constrained LiGME model, a nonconvexly regularized least squares estimation model, we present an iterative algorithm of guaranteed convergence to its globally optimal solution. The proposed algorithm can deal with two different…
We develop a novel procedure for constructing confidence bands for components of a sparse additive model. Our procedure is based on a new kernel-sieve hybrid estimator that combines two most popular nonparametric estimation methods in the…
In this work we propose an adaptive multilevel version of subset simulation to estimate the probability of rare events for complex physical systems. Given a sequence of nested failure domains of increasing size, the rare event probability…
In the multivariate regression, also referred to as multi-task learning in machine learning, the goal is to recover a vector-valued function based on noisy observations. The vector-valued function is often assumed to be of low rank.…
This article discusses MLMC estimators with and without weights, applied to nested expectations of the form E [f (E [F (Y, Z)|Y ])]. More precisely, we are interested on the assumptions needed to comply with the MLMC framework, depending on…
Likelihood-to-evidence ratio estimation is usually cast as either a binary (NRE-A) or a multiclass (NRE-B) classification task. In contrast to the binary classification framework, the current formulation of the multiclass version has an…
Conditional Variance Estimation (CVE) is a novel sufficient dimension reduction (SDR) method for additive error regressions with continuous predictors and link function. It operates under the assumption that the predictors can be replaced…
We propose a framework for hypothesis testing on conditional probability distributions, which we then use to construct statistical tests of functionals of conditional distributions. These tests identify the inputs where the functionals…
Conditional expectiles are becoming an increasingly important tool in finance as well as in other areas of applications. We analyse a support vector machine type approach for estimating conditional expectiles and establish learning rates…
The problem of accurate nonparametric estimation of distributional functionals (integral functionals of one or more probability distributions) has received recent interest due to their wide applicability in signal processing, information…
Flexible estimation of the mean outcome under a treatment regimen (i.e., value function) is the key step toward personalized medicine. We define our target parameter as a conditional value function given a set of baseline covariates which…
We propose a novel calibration method for computer simulators, dealing with the problem of covariate shift. Covariate shift is the situation where input distributions for training and test are different, and ubiquitous in applications of…
We consider the problem of estimating a nested structure of two expectations taking the form $U_0 = E[\max\{U_1(Y), \pi(Y)\}]$, where $U_1(Y) = E[X\ |\ Y]$. Terms of this form arise in financial risk estimation and option pricing. When…