Related papers: Quantile Additive Trend Filtering
In multivariate regression, when covariates are numerous, it is often reasonable to assume that only a small number of them has predictive information. In some medical applications for instance, it is believed that only a few genes out of…
Self-supervised contrastive learning has become a key technique in deep learning, particularly in time series analysis, due to its ability to learn meaningful representations without explicit supervision. Augmentation is a critical…
Dynamic factor models are often estimated by point-estimation methods, disregarding parameter uncertainty. We propose a method accounting for parameter uncertainty by means of posterior approximation, using variational inference. Our…
Extracting the underlying trend signal is a crucial step to facilitate time series analysis like forecasting and anomaly detection. Besides noise signal, time series can contain not only outliers but also abrupt trend changes in real-world…
Inferring the causal structure of a set of random variables from a finite sample of the joint distribution is an important problem in science. Recently, methods using additive noise models have been suggested to approach the case of…
Quantile regression (QR) is becoming increasingly popular due to its relevance in many scientific investigations. However, application of QR can become very challenging when dealing with high-dimensional data, making it necessary to use…
This paper addresses the problem of fixed motion and measurement models for multi-target filtering using an adaptive learning framework. This is performed by defining target tuples with random finite set terminology and utilisation of…
Probabilistic wind power forecasting approaches have significantly advanced in recent decades. However, forecasters often assume data completeness and overlook the challenge of missing values resulting from sensor failures, network…
Kernel methods form a powerful, versatile, and theoretically-grounded unifying framework to solve nonlinear problems in signal processing and machine learning. The standard approach relies on the kernel trick to perform pairwise evaluations…
For highly skewed or fat-tailed distributions, mean or median-based methods often fail to capture the central tendencies in the data. Despite being a viable alternative, estimating the conditional mode given certain covariates (or mode…
We study quantile-optimal policy learning where the goal is to find a policy whose reward distribution has the largest $\alpha$-quantile for some $\alpha \in (0, 1)$. We focus on the offline setting whose generating process involves…
Quantile aggregation with dependence uncertainty has a long history in probability theory with wide applications in finance, risk management, statistics, and operations research. Using a recent result on inf-convolution of quantile-based…
This paper proposes a data-adaptive factor model (DAFM), a novel framework for extracting common factors that explain the structures of high-dimensional data. DAFM adopts a composite quantile strategy to adaptively capture the full…
We study the error of linear regression in the face of adversarial attacks. In this framework, an adversary changes the input to the regression model in order to maximize the prediction error. We provide bounds on the prediction error in…
Quantile regression is a statistical method for estimating conditional quantiles of a response variable. In addition, for mean estimation, it is well known that quantile regression is more robust to outliers than $l_2$-based methods. By…
This paper describes a methodology for detecting anomalies from sequentially observed and potentially noisy data. The proposed approach consists of two main elements: (1) {\em filtering}, or assigning a belief or likelihood to each…
We develop a generalization of unobserved components models that allows for a wide range of long-run dynamics by modelling the permanent component as a fractionally integrated process. The model does not require stationarity and can be cast…
Relative temporal-difference (TD) learning was introduced to mitigate the slow convergence of TD methods when the discount factor approaches one by subtracting a baseline from the temporal-difference update. While this idea has been studied…
Quantile-based classifiers can classify high-dimensional observations by minimising a discrepancy of an observation to a class based on suitable quantiles of the within-class distributions, corresponding to a unique percentage for all…
Motivated by the sampling problems and heterogeneity issues common in high- dimensional big datasets, we consider a class of discordant additive index models. We propose method of moments based procedures for estimating the indices of such…