Related papers: Risk Estimation in a Markov Cost Process: Lower an…
Worst-case risk measures refer to the calculation of the largest value for risk measures when only partial information of the underlying distribution is available. For the popular risk measures such as Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional…
We analyze the infinite horizon minimax average cost Markov Control Model (MCM), for a class of controlled process conditional distributions, which belong to a ball, with respect to total variation distance metric, centered at a known…
In this paper, we introduce two alternative extensions of the classical univariate Value-at-Risk (VaR) in a multivariate setting. The two proposed multivariate VaR are vector-valued measures with the same dimension as the underlying risk…
Several authors have recently developed risk-sensitive policy gradient methods that augment the standard expected cost minimization problem with a measure of variability in cost. These studies have focused on specific risk-measures, such as…
This paper presents non-parametric estimates of spectral risk measures applied to long and short positions in 5 prominent equity futures contracts. It also compares these to estimates of two popular alternative measures, the Value-at-Risk…
In real-world scenarios, risk-averse learning is valuable for mitigating potential adverse outcomes. However, the delayed feedback makes it challenging to assess and manage risk effectively. In this paper, we investigate risk-averse…
This paper studies continuous-time Markov decision processes under the risk-sensitive average cost criterion. The state space is a finite set, the action space is a Borel space, the cost and transition rates are bounded, and the…
We consider an online stochastic game with risk-averse agents whose goal is to learn optimal decisions that minimize the risk of incurring significantly high costs. Specifically, we use the Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) as a risk measure…
This paper develops risk-averse models to support system operators in planning and operating the electricity grid under uncertainty from renewable power generation. We incorporate financial risk hedging using conditional value at risk…
Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is a central tail-risk measure in stochastic structural mechanics, yet its accurate evaluation under high-dimensional, spatially correlated material uncertainty remains computationally prohibitive for…
The ability to make optimal decisions under uncertainty remains important across a variety of disciplines from portfolio management to power engineering. This generally implies applying some safety margins on uncertain parameters that may…
We study a risk-constrained version of the stochastic shortest path (SSP) problem, where the risk measure considered is Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR). We propose two algorithms that obtain a locally risk-optimal policy by employing four…
In this paper, we study a mean-variance optimization problem in an infinite horizon discrete time discounted Markov decision process (MDP). The objective is to minimize the variance of system rewards with the constraint of mean performance.…
This paper considers the problem of finding near-optimal Markovian randomized (MR) policies for finite-state-action, infinite-horizon, constrained risk-sensitive Markov decision processes (CRSMDPs). Constraints are in the form of standard…
We consider a risk-sensitive continuous-time Markov decision process over a finite time duration. Under the conditions that can be satisfied by unbounded transition and cost rates, we show the existence of an optimal policy, and the…
We consider Markov decision processes where the state of the chain is only given at chosen observation times and of a cost. Optimal strategies involve the optimisation of observation times as well as the subsequent action values. We…
Risk measures such as Expected Shortfall (ES) and Value-at-Risk (VaR) have been prominent in banking regulation and financial risk management. Motivated by practical considerations in the assessment and management of risks, including…
This paper addresses risk averse constrained optimization problems where the objective and constraint functions can only be computed by a blackbox subject to unknown uncertainties. To handle mixed aleatory/epistemic uncertainties, the…
We consider optimal control problem with an integral cost which is a mean of a given function. As a particular case, the cost concerned is the Ces\`aro average. The limit of the value with Ces\`aro mean when the horizon tends to infinity is…
In this paper, we investigate risk measures such as value at risk (VaR) and the conditional tail expectation (CTE) of the extreme (maximum and minimum) and the aggregate (total) of two dependent risks. In finance, insurance and the other…