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Many critical decisions, such as personalized medical diagnoses and product pricing, are made based on insights gained from designing, observing, and analyzing a series of experiments. This highlights the crucial role of experimental…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-03 Daolang Huang , Yujia Guo , Luigi Acerbi , Samuel Kaski

Likelihood-free approaches are appealing for performing inference on complex dependence models, either because it is not possible to formulate a likelihood function, or its evaluation is very computationally costly. This is the case for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-08 Lídia M. André , Jennifer L. Wadsworth , Raphaël Huser

It is not always clear how to adjust for control data in causal inference, balancing the goals of reducing bias and variance. We show how, in a setting with repeated experiments, Bayesian hierarchical modeling yields an adaptive procedure…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-23 Andrew Gelman , Matthijs Vákár

High-dimensional deep neural network representations of images and concepts can be aligned to predict human annotations of diverse stimuli. However, such alignment requires the costly collection of behavioral responses, such that, in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-06-09 Yangyang Yu , Jordan W. Suchow

Bayesian paradigm takes advantage of well fitting complicated survival models and feasible computing in survival analysis owing to the superiority in tackling the complex censoring scheme, compared with the frequentist paradigm. In this…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-10 Chong Zhong , Zhihua Ma , Junshan Shen , Catherine Liu

In variational inference, the benefits of Bayesian models rely on accurately capturing the true posterior distribution. We propose using neural samplers that specify implicit distributions, which are well-suited for approximating complex…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-10 Anshuk Uppal , Kristoffer Stensbo-Smidt , Wouter Boomsma , Jes Frellsen

Bayesian inference is often utilized for uncertainty quantification tasks. A recent analysis by Xu and Raginsky 2022 rigorously decomposed the predictive uncertainty in Bayesian inference into two uncertainties, called aleatoric and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-07-25 Futoshi Futami , Tomoharu Iwata

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods, which are applicable when the likelihood is difficult or impossible to calculate, are an active topic of current research. Most current ABC algorithms directly approximate the posterior…

Computation · Statistics 2012-12-10 Y. Fan , D. J. Nott , S. A. Sisson

Relational query optimisers rely on cost models to choose between different query execution plans. Selectivity estimates are known to be a crucial input to the cost model. In practice, standard selectivity estimation procedures are prone to…

Databases · Computer Science 2020-09-22 Max Halford , Philippe Saint-Pierre , Franck Morvan

A common method for assessing validity of Bayesian sampling or approximate inference methods makes use of simulated data replicates for parameters drawn from the prior. Under continuity assumptions, quantiles of functions of the simulated…

Computation · Statistics 2019-11-21 Xuejun Yu , David J. Nott , Minh-Ngoc Tran , Nadja Klein

Bayesian Neural Networks with Latent Variables (BNN+LVs) capture predictive uncertainty by explicitly modeling model uncertainty (via priors on network weights) and environmental stochasticity (via a latent input noise variable). In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-19 Yaniv Yacoby , Weiwei Pan , Finale Doshi-Velez

In the field of operational modal analysis (OMA), obtained modal information is frequently used to assess the current state of aerospace, mechanical, offshore and civil structures. However, the stochasticity of operational systems and the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-04 Brandon J. O'Connell , Max D. Champneys , Timothy J. Rogers

A key objective of decomposition analysis is to identify a factor (the 'mediator') contributing to disparities in an outcome between social groups. In decomposition analysis, a scholarly interest often centers on estimating how much the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-27 Soojin Park , Suyeon Kang , Chioun Lee , Shujie Ma

We introduce implicit Bayesian neural networks, a simple and scalable approach for uncertainty representation in deep learning. Standard Bayesian approach to deep learning requires the impractical inference of the posterior distribution…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-27 Trung Trinh , Samuel Kaski , Markus Heinonen

Empirical Bayes (EB) improves the accuracy of simultaneous inference "by learning from the experience of others" (Efron, 2012). Classical EB theory focuses on latent variables that are iid draws from a fitted prior (Efron, 2019). Modern…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-24 Bohan Wu , Eli N. Weinstein , David M. Blei

Causal inference has recently gained notable attention across various fields like biology, healthcare, and environmental science, especially within explainable artificial intelligence (xAI) systems, for uncovering the causal relationships…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-13 Xiaofeng Xiao , Khawlah Alharbi , Pengyu Zhang , Hantang Qin , Xubo Yue

Bayesian spatial modeling provides a flexible framework for whole-brain fMRI analysis by explicitly incorporating spatial dependencies, overcoming the limitations of traditional massive univariate approaches that lead to information waste.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-18 Yuan Zhong , Gang Chen , Paul A. Taylor , Jian Kang

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a method for Bayesian inference when the likelihood is unavailable but simulating from the model is possible. However, many ABC algorithms require a large number of simulations, which can be costly.…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-10-15 Marko Järvenpää , Michael U. Gutmann , Arijus Pleska , Aki Vehtari , Pekka Marttinen

Predictive models often reinforce biases which were originally embedded in their training data, through skewed decisions. In such cases, mitigation methods are critical to ensure that, regardless of the prevailing disparities, model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-15 Ricardo Inácio , Zafeiris Kokkinogenis , Vitor Cerqueira , Carlos Soares

In recent years, neural networks have revolutionized various domains, yet challenges such as hyperparameter tuning and overfitting remain significant hurdles. Bayesian neural networks offer a framework to address these challenges by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-16 Hayk Amirkhanian , Marco F. Huber
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