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Causal effect estimation from observational data is a crucial but challenging task. Currently, only a limited number of data-driven causal effect estimation methods are available. These methods either provide only a bound estimation of the…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-10 Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Kui Yu , Thuc Duy Lee , Jixue Liu

Causal inference in continuous-time sequential decision problems is challenged by hidden confounders. We show that, in latent state-space models with time-varying interventions, observability of the latent dynamics from observed data is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Jennifer Wendland , Nicolas Freitag , Maik Kschischo

A clear need for automatic anomaly detection applied to automotive testing has emerged as more and more attention is paid to the data recorded and manual evaluation by humans reaches its capacity. Such real-world data is massive, diverse,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-22 Lucas Correia , Jan-Christoph Goos , Philipp Klein , Thomas Bäck , Anna V. Kononova

In the following short article we adapt a new and popular machine learning model for inference on medical data sets. Our method is based on the Variational AutoEncoder (VAE) framework that we adapt to survival analysis on small data sets…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-06 Cédric Beaulac , Jeffrey S. Rosenthal , David Hodgson

Conditional variational autoencoders (CVAEs) are versatile deep generative models that extend the standard VAE framework by conditioning the generative model with auxiliary covariates. The original CVAE model assumes that the data samples…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-03 Siddharth Ramchandran , Gleb Tikhonov , Otto Lönnroth , Pekka Tiikkainen , Harri Lähdesmäki

Estimating counterfactual outcomes over time has the potential to unlock personalized healthcare by assisting decision-makers to answer ''what-iF'' questions. Existing causal inference approaches typically consider regular, discrete-time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-17 Nabeel Seedat , Fergus Imrie , Alexis Bellot , Zhaozhi Qian , Mihaela van der Schaar

Inferring the heterogeneous treatment effect is a fundamental problem in the sciences and commercial applications. In this paper, we focus on estimating Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE), that is, the difference in the conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-23 Haomiao Meng , Xingye Qiao

Predicting the distribution of outcomes under hypothetical interventions is crucial across healthcare, economics, and policy-making. However, existing methods often require restrictive assumptions, and are typically limited by the lack of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-11 Andreas Sauter , Saber Salehkaleybar , Aske Plaat , Erman Acar

We present two deep generative models based on Variational Autoencoders to improve the accuracy of drug response prediction. Our models, Perturbation Variational Autoencoder and its semi-supervised extension, Drug Response Variational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-07 Ladislav Rampasek , Daniel Hidru , Petr Smirnov , Benjamin Haibe-Kains , Anna Goldenberg

We generalize the potential outcome framework to time series with an intervention by defining causal effects on stochastic processes. Interventions in dynamic systems alter not only outcome levels but also evolutionary dynamics -- changing…

Estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is challenging, especially when treatment information is missing. Although this is a widespread problem in practice, CATE estimation with missing treatments has received little…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-04-19 Milan Kuzmanovic , Tobias Hatt , Stefan Feuerriegel

Dynamic prediction of causal effects under different treatment regimes conditional on an individual's characteristics and longitudinal history is an essential problem in precision medicine. This is challenging in practice because outcomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-07 Yizhen Xu , Jisoo Kim , Laura K. Hummers , Ami A. Shah , Scott Zeger

This paper introduces the Descriptive Variational Autoencoder (DVAE), an unsupervised and end-to-end trainable neural network for predicting vehicle trajectories that provides partial interpretability. The novel approach is based on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-25 Marion Neumeier , Andreas Tollkühn , Thomas Berberich , Michael Botsch

This paper provides estimation and inference methods for a conditional average treatment effects (CATE) characterized by a high-dimensional parameter in both homogeneous cross-sectional and unit-heterogeneous dynamic panel data settings. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-13 Vira Semenova , Matt Goldman , Victor Chernozhukov , Matt Taddy

One of the most significant challenges in Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) estimation is the statistical discrepancy between distinct treatment groups. To address this issue, we propose a model-agnostic data augmentation method…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Ahmed Aloui , Juncheng Dong , Cat P. Le , Vahid Tarokh

We address the problem of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in panel data, adopting the popular Difference-in-Differences (DiD) framework under the conditional parallel trends assumption. We propose a novel doubly robust…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-29 Hui Lan , Haoge Chang , Eleanor Dillon , Vasilis Syrgkanis

Modeling spillover effects from observational data is an important problem in economics, business, and other fields of research. % It helps us infer the causality between two seemingly unrelated set of events. For example, if consumer…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-04 Vineeth Rakesh , Ruocheng Guo , Raha Moraffah , Nitin Agarwal , Huan Liu

Treatment effect estimation, which refers to the estimation of causal effects and aims to measure the strength of the causal relationship, is of great importance in many fields but is a challenging problem in practice. As present,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-20 Zhenyu Guo , Shuai Zheng , Zhizhe Liu , Kun Yan , Zhenfeng Zhu

One of the fundamental challenges in causal inference is to estimate the causal effect of a treatment on its outcome of interest from observational data. However, causal effect estimation often suffers from the impacts of confounding bias…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-23 Debo Cheng , Ziqi Xu , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Thuc Duy Le , Jixue Liu

Self-supervised disentangled representation learning is a critical task in sequence modeling. The learnt representations contribute to better model interpretability as well as the data generation, and improve the sample efficiency for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-26 Junwen Bai , Weiran Wang , Carla Gomes