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The bias-variance trade-off is a central concept in supervised learning. In classical statistics, increasing the complexity of a model (e.g., number of parameters) reduces bias but also increases variance. Until recently, it was commonly…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-25 Jason W. Rocks , Pankaj Mehta

The bias-variance tradeoff tells us that as model complexity increases, bias falls and variances increases, leading to a U-shaped test error curve. However, recent empirical results with over-parameterized neural networks are marked by a…

Classical learning theory suggests that the optimal generalization performance of a machine learning model should occur at an intermediate model complexity, with simpler models exhibiting high bias and more complex models exhibiting high…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-11-09 Ben Adlam , Jeffrey Pennington

The classical bias-variance trade-off predicts that bias decreases and variance increase with model complexity, leading to a U-shaped risk curve. Recent work calls this into question for neural networks and other over-parameterized models,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-09 Zitong Yang , Yaodong Yu , Chong You , Jacob Steinhardt , Yi Ma

Prior studies have unveiled the vulnerability of the deep neural networks in the context of adversarial machine learning, leading to great recent attention into this area. One interesting question that has yet to be fully explored is the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-04 Hossein Aboutalebi , Mohammad Javad Shafiee , Michelle Karg , Christian Scharfenberger , Alexander Wong

Breakthroughs in machine learning are rapidly changing science and society, yet our fundamental understanding of this technology has lagged far behind. Indeed, one of the central tenets of the field, the bias-variance trade-off, appears to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-08 Mikhail Belkin , Daniel Hsu , Siyuan Ma , Soumik Mandal

Ensembles are a straightforward, remarkably effective method for improving the accuracy,calibration, and robustness of models on classification tasks; yet, the reasons that underlie their success remain an active area of research. We build…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-22 Neha Gupta , Jamie Smith , Ben Adlam , Zelda Mariet

In classical statistics, the bias-variance trade-off describes how varying a model's complexity (e.g., number of fit parameters) affects its ability to make accurate predictions. According to this trade-off, optimal performance is achieved…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-05 Jason W. Rocks , Pankaj Mehta

We propose a novel regularization algorithm to train deep neural networks, in which data at training time is severely biased. Since a neural network efficiently learns data distribution, a network is likely to learn the bias information to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2019-04-16 Byungju Kim , Hyunwoo Kim , Kyungsu Kim , Sungjin Kim , Junmo Kim

A machine learning model is calibrated if its predicted probability for an outcome matches the observed frequency for that outcome conditional on the model prediction. This property has become increasingly important as the impact of machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Muthu Chidambaram , Rong Ge

The main goal of this thesis is to point out that the bias-variance tradeoff is not always true (e.g. in neural networks). We advocate for this lack of universality to be acknowledged in textbooks and taught in introductory courses that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-19 Brady Neal

A common assumption in machine learning is that samples are independently and identically distributed (i.i.d). However, the contributions of different samples are not identical in training. Some samples are difficult to learn and some…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-23 Ou Wu , Weiyao Zhu , Yingjun Deng , Haixiang Zhang , Qinghu Hou

To mitigate societal biases implicitly encoded in recent successful pretrained language models, a diverse array of approaches have been proposed to encourage model fairness, focusing on prompting, data augmentation, regularized fine-tuning,…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-01-30 Jingxuan Xu , Wuyang Chen , Linyi Li , Yao Zhao , Yunchao Wei

Invariances to translations have imbued convolutional neural networks with powerful generalization properties. However, we often do not know a priori what invariances are present in the data, or to what extent a model should be invariant to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-02 Gregory Benton , Marc Finzi , Pavel Izmailov , Andrew Gordon Wilson

Recent studies have noted an intriguing phenomenon termed Neural Collapse, that is, when the neural networks establish the right correlation between feature spaces and the training targets, their last-layer features, together with the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-09-22 Yining Wang , Junjie Sun , Chenyue Wang , Mi Zhang , Min Yang

This paper builds upon the work of Pfau (2013), which generalized the bias variance tradeoff to any Bregman divergence loss function. Pfau (2013) showed that for Bregman divergences, the bias and variances are defined with respect to a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-11 Ben Adlam , Neha Gupta , Zelda Mariet , Jamie Smith

Machine learning systems often do not share the same inductive biases as humans and, as a result, extrapolate or generalize in ways that are inconsistent with our expectations. The trade-off between exemplar- and rule-based generalization…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-20 Ishita Dasgupta , Erin Grant , Thomas L. Griffiths

The bias-variance decomposition is a central result in statistics and machine learning, but is typically presented only for the squared error. We present a generalization of the bias-variance decomposition where the prediction error is a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-13 David Pfau

In public media as well as in scientific publications, the term \emph{bias} is used in conjunction with machine learning in many different contexts, and with many different meanings. This paper proposes a taxonomy of these different…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-09-22 Thomas Hellström , Virginia Dignum , Suna Bensch

Recent studies on Neural Collapse (NC) reveal that, under class-balanced conditions, the class feature means and classifier weights spontaneously align into a simplex equiangular tight frame (ETF). In long-tailed regimes, however, severe…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Jinping Wang , Zhiqiang Gao , Zhiwu Xie
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