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We investigate opinion formation in a kinetic exchange opinion model, where opinions are represented by numbers in the real interval $[-1,1]$ and agents are typified by the individual degree of conviction about the opinion that they…
Counterfactual decision-making in the face of uncertainty involves selecting the optimal action from several alternatives using causal reasoning. Decision-makers often rank expected potential outcomes (or their corresponding utility and…
Personalized decision making requires the knowledge of potential outcomes under different treatments, and confidence intervals about the potential outcomes further enrich this decision-making process and improve its reliability in…
I describe a method for estimating agents' perceived returns to investments that relies on cross-sectional data containing binary choices and prices, where prices may be imperfectly known to agents. This method identifies the scale of…
We introduce a new agent-based model of opinion dynamics in which binary opinions (yes/no) of each agent can be measured and described regarding both pre- and post-influence at both of two levels, public and private, vis-\`a-vis the…
Does talking to others make people more accurate or less accurate on numeric estimates such as quantitative evaluations or probabilistic forecasts? Research on peer-to-peer communication suggests that discussion between people will usually…
The democratization of AI tools for content generation, combined with unrestricted access to mass media for all (e.g. through microblogging and social media), makes it increasingly hard for people to distinguish fact from fiction. This…
Any data annotation for subjective tasks shows potential variations between individuals. This is particularly true for annotations of emotional responses to musical stimuli. While older approaches to music emotion recognition systems…
Beliefs are important determinants of an individual's choices and economic outcomes, so understanding how they comove and differ across individuals is of considerable interest. Researchers often rely on surveys that report individual…
Understanding the evolution of collective beliefs is of critical importance to get insights on the political trends as well as on social tastes and opinions. In particular, it is pivotal to develop analytical models that can predict the…
We use a controlled experiment to study how information acquisition impacts candidate evaluations. We provide evaluators with group-level information on performance and the opportunity to acquire additional, individual-level performance…
We present a cognitive model of opinion dynamics which studies the behavior of a population of interacting individuals in the context of risk of natural disaster. In particular, we investigate the response of the individuals to the…
Learning to Rank (LTR) from user interactions is challenging as user feedback often contains high levels of bias and noise. At the moment, two methodologies for dealing with bias prevail in the field of LTR: counterfactual methods that…
Negative affect is a proxy for mental health in adults. By being able to predict participants' negative affect states unobtrusively, researchers and clinicians will be better positioned to deliver targeted, just-in-time mental health…
Public health outcomes can be heavily influenced by the landscape of public opinion; hence, it is important to understand how that landscape changes over time. For one, opinions on public health issues are responsive to official…
Counterfactuals, or modified inputs that lead to a different outcome, are an important tool for understanding the logic used by machine learning classifiers and how to change an undesirable classification. Even if a counterfactual changes a…
When opinion spread is studied, peer pressure is often modeled by interactions of more than two individuals (higher-order interactions). In our work, we introduce a two-layer random hypergraph model, in which hyperedges represent households…
We present an introduction to a novel model of an individual and group opinion dynamics, taking into account different ways in which different sources of information are filtered due to cognitive biases. The agent based model, using…
The effects of interpersonal interactions on individual's agreements result in a social aggregation process which is reflected in the formation of collective states, as for instance, groups of individuals with a similar opinion about a…
This paper develops a model of reference-dependent assessment of subjective beliefs in which loss-averse people optimally choose the expectation as the reference point to balance the current felicity from the optimistic anticipation and the…