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Environmental phenomena are influenced by complex interactions among various factors. For instance, the amount of rainfall measured at different stations within a given area is shaped by atmospheric conditions, orography, and physics of…

Applications · Statistics 2025-01-16 Paolo Onorati , Antonio Canale

This work employs variational techniques to revisit and expand the construction and analysis of extreme value processes. These techniques permit a novel study of spatial statistics of the location of minimizing events. We develop integral…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-08-10 Nicolas Garcia Trillos , Ryan Murray , Daniel Sanz-Alonso

The aim of this paper is to provide models for spatial extremes in the case of stationarity. The spatial dependence at extreme levels of a stationary process is modeled using an extension of the theory of max-stable processes of de Haan and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Laurens de Haan , Teresa T. Pereira

Intense precipitation events are commonly known to be associated with an increased risk of flooding. As a result of the societal and infrastructural risks linked with flooding, extremes of precipitation require careful modelling. Extreme…

Applications · Statistics 2017-10-06 Paul Sharkey , Hugo C. Winter

With climate change-related extreme events on the rise, high dimensional Earth observation data presents a unique opportunity for forecasting and understanding impacts on ecosystems. This is, however, impeded by the complexity of…

The modeling of risk situations that occur in a space-time framework can be done using max-stable random fields on lattices. Although the summary coefficients for the spatial and temporal behaviour do not characterize the finite-dimensional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-14 Helena Ferreira , Marta Ferreira , Luís A. Alexandre

In this chapter, we show how to efficiently model high-dimensional extreme peaks-over-threshold events over space in complex non-stationary settings, using extended latent Gaussian Models (LGMs), and how to exploit the fitted model in…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-07 Arnab Hazra , Raphaël Huser , Árni V. Jóhannesson

The local extremes (i.e., peaks and pits) of the landscape-elevation field play a critical role in energy, water, and nutrient distribution over the region, but the statistical distributions of these points in relation to landscape…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-09-21 Shashank Kumar Anand , Amilcare Porporato

In this work, a fully nonparametric geostatistical approach to estimate threshold exceeding probabilities is proposed. To estimate the large-scale variability (spatial trend) of the process, the nonparametric local linear regression…

We use extreme value theory to estimate the probability of successive exceedances of a threshold value of a time-series of an observable on several classes of chaotic dynamical systems. The observables have either a Fr\'echet (fat-tailed)…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-11-07 Meagan Carney , Mark Holland , Matthew Nicol , Phuong Tran

When analyzing spatially referenced event data, the criteria for declaring rates as "reliable" is still a matter of dispute. What these varying criteria have in common, however, is that they are rarely satisfied for crude estimates in small…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-10 Harrison Quick , Guangzi Song

Flood quantile estimation is of great importance for many engineering studies and policy decisions. However, practitioners must often deal with small data available. Thus, the information must be used optimally. In the last decades, to…

Applications · Statistics 2009-11-13 Mathieu Ribatet , Taha B. M. J. Ouarda , Eric Sauquet , Jean-Michel Grésillon

Extreme events, such as market crashes, natural disasters, and pandemics, are rare but catastrophic, often triggering cascading failures across interconnected systems. Accurate prediction and early warning can help minimize losses and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Jingyi Gu , Xuan Zhang , Guiling Wang

Accurate modelling of the joint extremal dependence structure within a stationary time series is a challenging problem that is important in many applications.\ Several previous approaches to this problem are only applicable to certain types…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-09 Graeme Auld , Ioannis Papastathopoulos

The occurrence of extreme events like heavy precipitation or storms at a certain location often shows a clustering behaviour and is thus not described well by a Poisson process. We construct a general model for the inter-exceedance times in…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-16 Christina Mathieu , Katharina Hees , Roland Fried

Simultaneous concurrence of extreme values across multiple climate variables can result in large societal and environmental impacts. Therefore, there is growing interest in understanding these concurrent extremes. In many applications, not…

Applications · Statistics 2021-03-16 Whitney K. Huang , Adam H. Monahan , Francis W. Zwiers

In multivariate extreme value analysis, the nature of the extremal dependence between variables should be considered when selecting appropriate statistical models. Interest often lies with determining which subsets of variables can take…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-19 Emma S. Simpson , Jennifer L. Wadsworth , Jonathan A. Tawn

Extreme environmental events such as severe storms, drought, heat waves, flash floods, and abrupt species collapse have become more prevalent in the earth-atmosphere dynamic system in recent years. In order to fully understand the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-05 Myungsoo Yoo , Likun Zhang , Christopher K. Wikle , Thomas Opitz

The covXtreme software provides functionality for estimation of marginal and conditional extreme value models, non-stationary with respect to covariates, and environmental design contours. Generalised Pareto (GP) marginal models of peaks…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-26 Ross Towe , Emma Ross , David Randell , Philip Jonathan

Inference on the extremal behaviour of spatial aggregates of precipitation is important for quantifying river flood risk. There are two classes of previous approach, with one failing to ensure self-consistency in inference across different…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-22 Jordan Richards , Jonathan A. Tawn , Simon Brown