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Most causal inference methods focus on estimating marginal average treatment effects, but many important causal estimands depend on the joint distribution of potential outcomes, including the probability of causation and proportions…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-16 Zach Shahn , David Madigan

Understanding variable dependence, particularly eliciting their statistical properties given a set of covariates, provides the mathematical foundation in practical operations management such as risk analysis and decision-making given…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-06 Yunyun Wang , Tatsushi Oka , Dan Zhu

Causal inference often hinges on strong assumptions - such as no unmeasured confounding or perfect compliance - that are rarely satisfied in practice. Partial identification offers a principled alternative: instead of relying on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-20 Tobias Maringgele

Causal inference from observational datasets often relies on measuring and adjusting for covariates. In practice, measurements of the covariates can often be noisy and/or biased, or only measurements of their proxies may be available.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-23 Wenshuo Guo , Mingzhang Yin , Yixin Wang , Michael I. Jordan

In some multivariate problems with missing data, pairs of variables exist that are never observed together. For example, some modern biological tools can produce data of this form. As a result of this structure, the covariance matrix is…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-08-13 Max Grazier G'Sell , Shai S. Shen-Orr , Robert Tibshirani

In causal inference, it is common to estimate the causal effect of a single treatment variable on an outcome. However, practitioners may also be interested in the effect of simultaneous interventions on multiple covariates of a fixed target…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-24 Jaime Roquero Gimenez , Dominik Rothenhäusler

In some causal inference scenarios, the treatment variable is measured inaccurately, for instance in epidemiology or econometrics. Failure to correct for the effect of this measurement error can lead to biased causal effect estimates.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-13 Antti Pöllänen , Pekka Marttinen

Semiparametric inference on average causal effects from observational data is based on assumptions yielding identification of the effects. In practice, several distinct identifying assumptions may be plausible; an analyst has to make a…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-07 Tetiana Gorbach , Xavier de Luna , Juha Karvanen , Ingeborg Waernbaum

Many statistical estimands of interest (e.g., in regression or causality) are functions of the joint distribution of multiple random variables. But in some applications, data is not available that measures all random variables on each…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-11 Yicong Jiang , Lucas Janson

In randomized clinical trials, adjustments for baseline covariates at both design and analysis stages are highly encouraged by regulatory agencies. A recent trend is to use a model-assisted approach for covariate adjustment to gain…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-14 Ting Ye , Jun Shao , Yanyao Yi , Qingyuan Zhao

Quantile regression is a powerful tool for detecting exposure-outcome associations given covariates across different parts of the outcome's distribution, but has two major limitations when the aim is to infer the effect of an exposure.…

This paper describes three methods for carrying out non-asymptotic inference on partially identified parameters that are solutions to a class of optimization problems. Applications in which the optimization problems arise include estimation…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-02 Joel L. Horowitz , Sokbae Lee

We introduce a new method for estimating the mean of an outcome variable within groups when researchers only observe the average of the outcome and group indicators across a set of aggregation units, such as geographical areas. Existing…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-01 Cory McCartan , Shiro Kuriwaki

We study the estimation of causal estimand involving the joint distribution of treatment and control outcomes for a single unit. In typical causal inference settings, it is impossible to observe both outcomes simultaneously, which places…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-16 Sirui Lin , Zijun Gao , Jose Blanchet , Peter Glynn

Imbalance in covariate distributions leads to biased estimates of causal effects. Weighting methods attempt to correct this imbalance but rely on specifying models for the treatment assignment mechanism, which is unknown in observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-13 Eric Dunipace

We consider the estimation of average treatment effects in observational studies and propose a new framework of robust causal inference with unobserved confounders. Our approach is based on distributionally robust optimization and proceeds…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-06 Dimitris Bertsimas , Kosuke Imai , Michael Lingzhi Li

Causal estimands can vary significantly depending on the relationship between outcomes in treatment and control groups, potentially leading to wide partial identification (PI) intervals that impede decision making. Incorporating covariates…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-02 Sirui Lin , Zijun Gao , Jose Blanchet , Peter Glynn

Causal inference from observational data provides strong evidence for the best action in decision-making without performing expensive randomized trials. The effect of an action is usually not identifiable under unobserved confounding, even…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-02 Md Musfiqur Rahman , Ziwei Jiang , Hilaf Hasson , Murat Kocaoglu

Many causal quantities are only partially identifiable due to the inherent missingness of potential outcomes, and the associated partial identification (PI) sets can be obtained by solving an optimal transport (OT) problem. Covariates often…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-25 Sirui Lin , Zijun Gao , Jose Blanchet , Peter Glynn

We propose nonparametric identification and semiparametric estimation of joint potential outcome distributions in the presence of confounding. First, in settings with observed confounding, we derive tighter, covariate-informed bounds on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-19 Jianle Sun , Kun Zhang
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