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We study a new measure of codependency in the second moment of a continuous-time multivariate asset price process, which we name the realized copula of volatility. The statistic is based on local volatility estimates constructed from…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-22 Kim Christensen , Wenjing Liu , Zhi Liu , Yoann Potiron

An initial screening experiment may lead to ambiguous conclusions regarding the factors which are active in explaining the variation of an outcome variable: thus adding follow-up runs becomes necessary. We propose a fully Bayes objective…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-05-13 Guido Consonni , Laura Deldossi

Cumulant mapping employs a statistical reconstruction of the whole by sampling its parts. The theory developed in this work formalises and extends ad hoc methods of `multi-fold' or `multi-dimensional' covariance mapping. Explicit formulae…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2023-11-06 Leszek J. Frasinski

Variational Bayes methods approximate the posterior density by a family of tractable distributions whose parameters are estimated by optimisation. Variational approximation is useful when exact inference is intractable or very costly. Our…

Computation · Statistics 2023-08-15 David Gunawan , Robert Kohn , David Nott

Missing data imputation forms the first critical step of many data analysis pipelines. The challenge is greatest for mixed data sets, including real, Boolean, and ordinal data, where standard techniques for imputation fail basic sanity…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-06-17 Yuxuan Zhao , Madeleine Udell

Joint modelling of longitudinal and time-to-event data is usually described by a joint model which uses shared or correlated latent effects to capture associations between the two processes. Under this framework, the joint distribution of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-07 Zili Zhang , Christiana Charalambous , Peter Foster

Joint multivariate longitudinal and time-to-event data are gaining increasing attention in the biomedical sciences where subjects are followed over time to monitor the progress of a disease or medical condition. In the insurance context,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-02-12 Edward W. Frees , Catalina Bolancé , Montserrat Guillen , Emiliano Valdez

Clustering task of mixed data is a challenging problem. In a probabilistic framework, the main difficulty is due to a shortage of conventional distributions for such data. In this paper, we propose to achieve the mixed data clustering with…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-10-01 Matthieu Marbac , Christophe Biernacki , Vincent Vandewalle

The increasing use of vine copulas in high-dimensional settings, where the number of parameters is often of the same order as the sample size, calls for asymptotic theory beyond the traditional fixed-$p$, large-$n$ framework. We establish…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-28 Jana Gauss , Thomas Nagler

The paper presents a new copula based method for measuring dependence between random variables. Our approach extends the Maximum Mean Discrepancy to the copula of the joint distribution. We prove that this approach has several advantageous…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-08-15 Barnabas Poczos , Zoubin Ghahramani , Jeff Schneider

The conditional copula model arises when the dependence between random variables is influenced by another covariate. Despite its importance in modelling complex dependence structures, there are very few fully nonparametric approaches to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-07-30 Toihir Soulaimana Djaloud , Cheikh Tidiane Seck

Fully describing the entire data set is essential in multivariate risk assessment, since moderate levels of one variable can influence another, potentially leading it to be extreme. Additionally, modelling both non-extreme and extreme…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-11 Lídia M. André , Jonathan A. Tawn

We develop estimation for potentially high-dimensional additive structural equation models. A key component of our approach is to decouple order search among the variables from feature or edge selection in a directed acyclic graph encoding…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-12-02 Peter Bühlmann , Jonas Peters , Jan Ernest

Correlation matrix visualization is essential for understanding the relationships between variables in a dataset, but missing data can pose a significant challenge in estimating correlation coefficients. In this paper, we compare the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-06 Nhat-Hao Pham , Khanh-Linh Vo , Mai Anh Vu , Thu Nguyen , Michael A. Riegler , Pål Halvorsen , Binh T. Nguyen

The Multiplicative Error Model (Engle (2002)) for nonnegative valued processes is specified as the product of a (conditionally autoregressive) scale factor and an innovation process with nonnegative support. A multivariate extension allows…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-04-06 Fabrizio Cipollini , Robert F. Engle , Giampiero M. Gallo

The purpose of this paper is to characterize the concept of monotonicity according to a direction related to a set of n random variables in terms of its associated n-copula C. We start establishing relationships in the bivariate and…

We consider a finite mixture model with varying mixing probabilities. Linear regression models are assumed for observed variables with coefficients depending on the mixture component the observed subject belongs to. A modification of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-01-07 Daryna Liubashenko , Rostyslav Maiboroda

We introduce a new goodness-of-fit test for regular vine (R-vine) copula models, a flexible class of multivariate copulas based on a pair-copula construction (PCC). The test arises from the information matrix ratio. The corresponding test…

Computation · Statistics 2013-09-24 Ulf Schepsmeier

Difficulties may arise when analyzing longitudinal data using mixed-effects models if there are nonparametric functions present in the linear predictor component. This study extends the use of semiparametric mixed-effects modeling in cases…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-05 Mozhgan Taavoni , Mohammad Arashi

In this paper, we obtain general representations for the joint distributions and copulas of arbitrary dependent random variables absolutely continuous with respect to the product of given one-dimensional marginal distributions. The…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-08-16 Victor H. de la Peña , Rustam Ibragimov , Shaturgun Sharakhmetov