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To test scientific theories and develop individualized treatment rules, researchers often wish to learn heterogeneous treatment effects that can be consistently found across diverse populations and contexts. We consider the problem of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-01 Yi Zhang , Melody Huang , Kosuke Imai

Subgroup analysis of treatment effects plays an important role in applications from medicine to public policy to recommender systems. It allows physicians (for example) to identify groups of patients for whom a given drug or treatment is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-20 Hyun-Suk Lee , Yao Zhang , William Zame , Cong Shen , Jang-Won Lee , Mihaela van der Schaar

Estimating how much an intervention helps a given individual the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) is increasingly central to decision-making in medicine, economics, and policy, where an estimate is most useful when accompanied by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-28 Eichi Uehara

Introduction: One of the most important tasks in the Emergency Department (ED) is to promptly identify the patients who will benefit from hospital admission. Machine Learning (ML) techniques show promise as diagnostic aids in healthcare.…

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in domains such as healthcare or social science often involves sensitive data where protecting privacy is important. We introduce a general meta-algorithm for estimating conditional average…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-23 Fengshi Niu , Harsha Nori , Brian Quistorff , Rich Caruana , Donald Ngwe , Aadharsh Kannan

In this paper, we develop a multiply robust inference procedure of the average treatment effect (ATE) for data with high-dimensional covariates. We consider the case where it is difficult to correctly specify a single parametric model for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-03 Xintao Xia , Yumou Qiu

The aim is to create a method for accurately estimating the duration of post-cancer treatment, particularly focused on chemotherapy, to optimize patient care and recovery. This initiative seeks to improve the effectiveness of cancer…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2025-04-24 Joyee Chakraborty , Mazahrul Islam Tohin , Danbir Rashid , Tanjil Ahmed Tanmoy , Md. Jehadul Islam Mony

The increasing scientific attention given to precision medicine based on real-world data has led many recent studies to clarify the relationships between treatment effects and patient characteristics. However, this is challenging because of…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-20 Ke Wan , Kensuke Tanioka , Toshio Shimokawa

There is intense interest in applying machine learning to problems of causal inference in fields such as healthcare, economics and education. In particular, individual-level causal inference has important applications such as precision…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-05-17 Uri Shalit , Fredrik D. Johansson , David Sontag

In biomedical science, analyzing treatment effect heterogeneity plays an essential role in assisting personalized medicine. The main goals of analyzing treatment effect heterogeneity include estimating treatment effects in clinically…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-06 Waverly Wei , Maya Petersen , Mark J van der Laan , Zeyu Zheng , Chong Wu , Jingshen Wang

We study targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) of the average treatment effect in a semiparametric regression model whose mean function is indexed by a finite-dimensional parameter, while the additive error distribution is left…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-20 Mijeong Kim

Treatment effect estimation is a fundamental problem in causal inference. We focus on designing efficient randomized controlled trials, to accurately estimate the effect of some treatment on a population of $n$ individuals. In particular,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-14 Raghavendra Addanki , David Arbour , Tung Mai , Cameron Musco , Anup Rao

Generalized estimating equation (GEE) is widely adopted for regression modeling for longitudinal data, taking account of potential correlations within the same subjects. Although the standard GEE assumes common regression coefficients among…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-11 Tsubasa Ito , Shonosuke Sugasawa

Researchers and practitioners often wish to measure treatment effects in settings where units interact via markets and recommendation systems. In these settings, units are affected by certain shared states, like prices, algorithmic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-04-15 Chris Hays , Manish Raghavan

Most of the widely used estimators of the average treatment effect (ATE) in causal inference rely on the assumptions of unconfoundedness and overlap. Unconfoundedness requires that the observed covariates account for all correlations…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-01 Yang Cai , Alkis Kalavasis , Katerina Mamali , Anay Mehrotra , Manolis Zampetakis

Individualized randomized experiments are central to online platforms for optimizing personalized decisions in complex environments. In two-sided markets, however, standard treatment effect estimation is often invalid due to strong temporal…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-27 Shuguang Yu , Ting Li , Yuchen Lu , Chengchun Shi , Fan Zhou , Zhichao Zou , Peng Zhen , Hongtu Zhu

Methods for estimating heterogeneous treatment effect in observational data have largely focused on continuous or binary outcomes, and have been relatively less vetted with survival outcomes. Using flexible machine learning methods in the…

Applications · Statistics 2021-07-09 Liangyuan Hu , Jiayi Ji , Fan Li

One of the most significant challenges in Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE) estimation is the statistical discrepancy between distinct treatment groups. To address this issue, we propose a model-agnostic data augmentation method…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Ahmed Aloui , Juncheng Dong , Cat P. Le , Vahid Tarokh

Subgroup selection in clinical trials is essential for identifying patient groups that react differently to a treatment, thereby enabling personalised medicine. In particular, subgroup selection can identify patient groups that respond…

We extend methods for finite-sample inference about the average treatment effect (ATE) in randomized experiments with binary outcomes to accommodate stratification (blocking). We present three valid methods that differ in their…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-08-07 Jiaxun Li , Jacob Spertus , Philip B. Stark