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Bayesian inference and uncertainty quantification in a general class of non-linear inverse regression models is considered. Analytic conditions on the regression model $\{\mathscr G(\theta): \theta \in \Theta\}$ and on Gaussian process…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-04-16 François Monard , Richard Nickl , Gabriel P. Paternain

The topic of robustness is experiencing a resurgence of interest in the statistical and machine learning communities. In particular, robust algorithms making use of the so-called median of means estimator were shown to satisfy strong…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-10-14 Stanislav Minsker , Shunan Yao

The proposed approach extends the confidence posterior distribution to the semi-parametric empirical Bayes setting. Whereas the Bayesian posterior is defined in terms of a prior distribution conditional on the observed data, the confidence…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-05-02 David R. Bickel

We consider the Bayesian analysis of models in which the unknown distribution of the outcomes is specified up to a set of conditional moment restrictions. The nonparametric exponentially tilted empirical likelihood function is constructed…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-27 Siddhartha Chib , Minchul Shin , Anna Simoni

In a general class of Bayesian nonparametric models, we prove that the posterior distribution can be asymptotically approximated by a Gaussian process. Our results apply to nonparametric exponential family that contains both Gaussian and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-01 Zuofeng Shang , Guang Cheng

We investigate the asymptotic normality of the posterior distribution in the discrete setting, when model dimension increases with sample size. We consider a probability mass function $\theta_0$ on $\mathbbm{N}\setminus \{0\}$ and a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-01-29 S. Boucheron , E. Gassiat

There has been significant progress in Bayesian inference based on sparsity-inducing (e.g., spike-and-slab and horseshoe-type) priors for high-dimensional regression models. The resulting posteriors, however, in general do not possess…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-12-11 Qihui Chen , Zheng Fang , Ruixuan Liu

This paper studies quasi Bayesian estimation and uncertainty quantification for an unknown function that is identified by a nonparametric conditional moment restriction. We derive contraction rates for a class of Gaussian process priors.…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-11-08 Sid Kankanala

We provide a comprehensive semi-parametric study of Bayesian partially identified econometric models. While the existing literature on Bayesian partial identification has mostly focused on the structural parameter, our primary focus is on…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-09-29 Yuan Liao , Anna Simoni

In a smooth semiparametric model, the marginal posterior distribution of the finite dimensional parameter of interest is expected to be asymptotically equivalent to the sampling distribution of frequentist's efficient estimators. This is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-10-20 Minwoo Chae

The Peaks Over Threshold (POT) method is the most popular statistical method for the analysis of univariate extremes. Even though there is a rich applied literature on Bayesian inference for the POT, the asymptotic theory for such proposals…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-04-01 Clément Dombry , Simone A. Padoan , Stefano Rizzelli

We consider the asymptotic behaviour of the marginal maximum likelihood empirical Bayes posterior distribution in general setting. First we characterize the set where the maximum marginal likelihood estimator is located with high…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-04-05 Judith Rousseau , Botond Szabo

Formulating a statistical inverse problem as one of inference in a Bayesian model has great appeal, notably for what this brings in terms of coherence, the interpretability of regularisation penalties, the integration of all uncertainties,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-12-19 Natalia A. Bochkina , Peter J. Green

I propose a semiparametric Bayesian inference framework for conditional moment equalities. The core idea is that these models deterministically map a conditional distribution of data to a structural parameter via the restriction that a…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-19 Christopher D. Walker

Gibbs posteriors are proportional to a prior distribution multiplied by an exponentiated loss function, with a key tuning parameter weighting information in the loss relative to the prior and providing a control of posterior uncertainty.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-09 Steven Winter , Omar Melikechi , David B. Dunson

In a smooth semiparametric estimation problem, the marginal posterior for the parameter of interest is expected to be asymptotically normal and satisfy frequentist criteria of optimality if the model is endowed with a suitable prior. It is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-05-30 P. J. Bickel , B. J. K. Kleijn

Under model misspecification, it is known that Bayesian posteriors often do not properly quantify uncertainty about true or pseudo-true parameters. Even more fundamentally, misspecification leads to a lack of reproducibility in the sense…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-06 Jonathan H. Huggins , Jeffrey W. Miller

Bayesian approaches to data analysis and machine learning are widespread and popular as they provide intuitive yet rigorous axioms for learning from data; see Bernardo and Smith (2004) and Bishop (2006). However, this rigour comes with a…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-01-31 Chris Holmes , Stephen Walker

In this paper, we obtain quantitative, non-asymptotic, and data-dependent \textit{Bernstein-von Mises type} bounds on the normal approximation of the posterior distribution in exponential family models with arbitrary centring and scaling.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-01-14 Adrian Fischer , Robert E. Gaunt , Gesine Reinert , Yvik Swan

Outliers can seriously distort statistical inference by inducing excessive sensitivity in the likelihood function, thereby compromising the reliability of Bayesian estimation. To address this issue, we develop a robust Bayesian estimation…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-09 Jeongho Lee , Junmo Song