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Counterfactual explanations are usually obtained by identifying the smallest change made to an input to change a prediction made by a fixed model (hereafter called sparse methods). Recent work, however, has revitalized an old insight: there…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-24 Martin Pawelczyk , Klaus Broelemann , Gjergji Kasneci

Recent papers in explainable AI have made a compelling case for counterfactual modes of explanation. While counterfactual explanations appear to be extremely effective in some instances, they are formally equivalent to adversarial examples.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-12-21 Kieran Browne , Ben Swift

Causal inference, or counterfactual prediction, is central to decision making in healthcare, policy and social sciences. To de-bias causal estimators with high-dimensional data in observational studies, recent advances suggest the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-20 Shuxi Zeng , Serge Assaad , Chenyang Tao , Shounak Datta , Lawrence Carin , Fan Li

We propose a formal model for counterfactual estimation with unobserved confounding in "data-rich" settings, i.e., where there are a large number of units and a large number of measurements per unit. Our model provides a bridge between the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-04-03 Alberto Abadie , Anish Agarwal , Devavrat Shah

Uplift modeling estimates the causal effect of an intervention as the difference between potential outcomes under treatment and control, whereas counterfactual identification aims to recover the joint distribution of these potential…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-10 Théo Verhelst , Gianluca Bontempi

Counterfactual explanations emerge as a powerful approach in explainable AI, providing what-if scenarios that reveal how minimal changes to an input time series can alter the model's prediction. This work presents a survey of recent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-31 Udo Schlegel , Thomas Seidl

Developing models that are capable of answering questions of the form "How would x change if y had been z?'" is fundamental to advancing medical image analysis. Training causal generative models that address such counterfactual questions,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-15 Yasin Ibrahim , Hermione Warr , Konstantinos Kamnitsas

The imminent need to interpret the output of a Machine Learning model with counterfactual (CF) explanations - via small perturbations to the input - has been notable in the research community. Although the variety of CF examples is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-23 Kleopatra Markou , Dimitrios Tomaras , Vana Kalogeraki , Dimitrios Gunopulos

Counterfactual explanations (CFEs) guide users on how to adjust inputs to machine learning models to achieve desired outputs. While existing research primarily addresses static scenarios, real-world applications often involve data or model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-11 Ignacy Stępka , Mateusz Lango , Jerzy Stefanowski

Most counterfactual inference frameworks traditionally assume acyclic structural causal models (SCMs), i.e. directed acyclic graphs (DAGs). However, many real-world systems (e.g. biological systems) contain feedback loops or cyclic…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-01-21 Saptarshi Saha , Dhruv Vansraj Rathore , Utpal Garain

Visual counterfactual explanations are ideal hypothetical images that change the decision-making of the classifier with high confidence toward the desired class while remaining visually plausible and close to the initial image. In this…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-04-15 Tung Luu , Nam Le , Duc Le , Bac Le

Counterfactual explanations provide individuals with cost-optimal recommendations to achieve their desired outcomes. However, when a significant number of individuals seek similar state modifications, this individual-centric approach can…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-01 Ahmad-Reza Ehyaei , Ali Shirali , Samira Samadi

Contrastive explanations clarify why an event occurred in contrast to another. They are more inherently intuitive to humans to both produce and comprehend. We propose a methodology to produce contrastive explanations for classification…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2021-09-15 Alon Jacovi , Swabha Swayamdipta , Shauli Ravfogel , Yanai Elazar , Yejin Choi , Yoav Goldberg

We consider counterfactual explanations, the problem of minimally adjusting features in a source input instance so that it is classified as a target class under a given classifier. This has become a topic of recent interest as a way to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-02 Miguel Á. Carreira-Perpiñán , Suryabhan Singh Hada

Automated fact checking systems have been proposed that quickly provide veracity prediction at scale to mitigate the negative influence of fake news on people and on public opinion. However, most studies focus on veracity classifiers of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-06-15 Shih-Chieh Dai , Yi-Li Hsu , Aiping Xiong , Lun-Wei Ku

Existing algorithms for generating Counterfactual Explanations (CXs) for Machine Learning (ML) typically assume fully specified inputs. However, real-world data often contains missing values, and the impact of these incomplete inputs on the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-04-10 Francesco Leofante , Daniel Neider , Mustafa Yalçıner

Machine learning (ML) models play an increasingly prevalent role in many software engineering tasks. However, because most models are now powered by opaque deep neural networks, it can be difficult for developers to understand why the model…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2021-11-11 Jürgen Cito , Isil Dillig , Vijayaraghavan Murali , Satish Chandra

Despite their enormous predictive power, machine learning models are often unsuitable for applications in regulated industries such as finance, due to their limited capacity to provide explanations. While model-agnostic frameworks such as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-03 Joshua S. Harvey , Guanchao Feng , Sai Anusha Meesala , Tina Zhao , Dhagash Mehta

Counterfactual explanations can be obtained by identifying the smallest change made to a feature vector to qualitatively influence a prediction; for example, from 'loan rejected' to 'awarded' or from 'high risk of cardiovascular disease' to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-05 Martin Pawelczyk , Johannes Haug , Klaus Broelemann , Gjergji Kasneci

Many existing methods of counterfactual explanations ignore the intrinsic relationships between data attributes and thus fail to generate realistic counterfactuals. Moreover, the existing models that account for relationships require domain…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-05-31 Xintao Xiang , Artem Lenskiy
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