Related papers: Root n consistent extremile regression and its sup…
Expected Shortfall (ES), also known as superquantile or Conditional Value-at-Risk, has been recognized as an important measure in risk analysis and stochastic optimization, and is also finding applications beyond these areas. In finance, it…
There is an increasing interest to understand the dependence structure of a random vector not only in the center of its distribution but also in the tails. Extreme-value theory tackles the problem of modelling the joint tail of a…
Heavy-tailed error distributions and predictors with anomalous values are ubiquitous in high-dimensional regression problems and can seriously jeopardize the validity of statistical analyses if not properly addressed. For more reliable…
Quantiles, expectiles and extremiles can be seen as concepts defined via an optimization problem, where this optimization problem is driven by two important ingredients: the loss function as well as a distributional weight function. This…
The problem of regression extrapolation, or out-of-distribution generalization, arises when predictions are required at test points outside the range of the training data. In such cases, the non-parametric guarantees for regression methods…
A fundamental challenge in semi-supervised learning lies in the observed data's disproportional size when compared with the size of the data collected with missing outcomes. An implicit understanding is that the dataset with missing…
We introduce a consistent estimator of the extreme value index under random truncation based on a single sample fraction of top observations from truncated and truncation data. We establish the asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator…
Let $X$ be a random variable with unknown mean and finite variance. We present a new estimator of the mean of $X$ that is robust with respect to the possible presence of outliers in the sample, provides tight sub-Gaussian deviation…
Based on suitable left-truncated or censored data, two flexible classes of $M$-estimations of Weibull tail coefficient are proposed with two additional parameters bounding the impact of extreme contamination. Asymptotic normality with…
Expected risk minimization (ERM) is at the core of many machine learning systems. This means that the risk inherent in a loss distribution is summarized using a single number - its average. In this paper, we propose a general approach to…
This paper presents a novel semiparametric method to study the effects of extreme events on binary outcomes and subsequently forecast future outcomes. Our approach, based on Bayes' theorem and regularly varying (RV) functions, facilitates a…
Expectile bears some interesting properties in comparison to the industry wide expected shortfall in terms of assessment of tail risk. We study the relationship between expectile and expected shortfall using duality results and the link to…
We provide a unified analysis of the predictive risk of ridge regression and regularized discriminant analysis in a dense random effects model. We work in a high-dimensional asymptotic regime where $p, n \to \infty$ and $p/n \to \gamma \in…
Causal inference for extreme events has many potential applications in fields such as climate science, medicine and economics. We study the extremal quantile treatment effect of a binary treatment on a continuous, heavy-tailed outcome.…
In this paper, we propose self-tuned robust estimators for estimating the mean of heavy-tailed distributions, which refer to distributions with only finite variances. Our approach introduces a new loss function that considers both the mean…
In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating an extreme quantile of a Weibull tail-distribution. The new extreme quantile estimator has a reduced bias compared to the more classical ones proposed in the literature. It is based on an…
We study the problem of selecting features associated with extreme values in high dimensional linear regression. Normally, in linear modeling problems, the presence of abnormal extreme values or outliers is considered an anomaly which…
We introduce a new regression method that relates the mean of an outcome variable to covariates, under the "adverse condition" that a distress variable falls in its tail. This allows to tailor classical mean regressions to adverse…
The Highly-Adaptive-Lasso(HAL)-TMLE is an efficient estimator of a pathwise differentiable parameter in a statistical model that at minimal (and possibly only) assumes that the sectional variation norm of the true nuisance parameters are…
This work derives extremal tail bounds for the Gaussian trace estimator applied to a real symmetric matrix. We define a partial ordering on the eigenvalues, so that when a matrix has greater spectrum under this ordering, its estimator will…