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We study how a principal can jointly shape an agent's timing and action through information. We develop a revelation principle: with intertemporal commitment, the problem simplifies to choosing a joint distribution over stopping times and…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-11-26 Andrew Koh , Sivakorn Sanguanmoo , Weijie Zhong

In many real-world dynamical systems, obtaining precise models of system uncertainty remains a challenge. It may be difficult to estimate noise distributions or robustness bounds, especially when the distributions/robustness bounds vary…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-03-05 Heling Zhang , Lillian J. Ratliff , Roy Dong

Bayesian persuasion studies how an informed sender should partially disclose information so as to influence the behavior of self-interested receivers. In the last years, a growing attention has been devoted to relaxing the assumption that…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2022-09-02 Matteo Castiglioni , Alberto Marchesi , Nicola Gatti

This paper presents a novel problem of creating and regulating localization and navigation illusions considering two agents: a receiver and a producer. A receiver is moving on a plane localizing itself using the intensity of signals from…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-04-28 Lorenzo Medici , Steven M. LaValle , Basak Sakcak

Complex behaviors are often driven by an internal model, which integrates sensory information over time and facilitates long-term planning. Inferring an agent's internal model is a crucial ingredient in social interactions (theory of mind),…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-13 Zhengwei Wu , Paul Schrater , Xaq Pitkow

In data-driven inverse optimization an observer aims to learn the preferences of an agent who solves a parametric optimization problem depending on an exogenous signal. Thus, the observer seeks the agent's objective function that best…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2017-07-25 Peyman Mohajerin Esfahani , Soroosh Shafieezadeh-Abadeh , Grani Adiwena Hanasusanto , Daniel Kuhn

I describe a Bayesian persuasion problem where Receiver has a private type representing a cutoff for choosing Sender's preferred action, and Sender has maxmin preferences over all Receiver type distributions with known mean and bounds. This…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-09-03 Eitan Sapiro-Gheiler

Information gathering in a partially observable environment can be formulated as a reinforcement learning (RL), problem where the reward depends on the agent's uncertainty. For example, the reward can be the negative entropy of the agent's…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-05-12 Yash Satsangi , Sungsu Lim , Shimon Whiteson , Frans Oliehoek , Martha White

The Bayesian persuasion paradigm of strategic communication models interaction between a privately-informed agent, called the sender, and an ignorant but rational agent, called the receiver. The goal is typically to design a (near-)optimal…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2021-06-21 Ronen Gradwohl , Niklas Hahn , Martin Hoefer , Rann Smorodinsky

A sender persuades a strategically naive decisionmaker (DM) by committing privately to an experiment. Sender's choice of experiment is unknown to the DM, who must form her posterior beliefs nonparametrically by applying some learning rule…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-11-10 Arnav Sood , James Best

Belief revision is the process in which an agent incorporates a new piece of information together with a pre-existing set of beliefs. When the new information comes in the form of a report from another agent, then it is clear that we must…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-05-02 Aaron Hunter

Peer-prediction is a (meta-)mechanism which, given any proper scoring rule, produces a mechanism to elicit privately-held, non-verifiable information from self-interested agents. Formally, truth-telling is a strict Nash equilibrium of the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2016-03-24 Yuqing Kong , Grant Schoenebeck , Katrina Ligett

We address Bayesian persuasion between a sender and a receiver with state-dependent quadratic cost measures for general classes of distributions. The receiver seeks to make mean-square-error estimate of a state based on a signal sent by the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2020-09-15 Muhammed O. Sayin , Tamer Basar

What are the value and form of optimal persuasion when information can be generated only slowly? We study this question in a dynamic model in which a 'sender' provides public information over time subject to a graduality constraint, and a…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-04-19 Matteo Escudé , Ludvig Sinander

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a distribution-free uncertainty estimation framework that constructs prediction sets guaranteed to contain the true answer with a user-specified probability. Intuitively, the size of the prediction set encodes a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-18 Alvaro H. C. Correia , Fabio Valerio Massoli , Christos Louizos , Arash Behboodi

A central challenge for intelligent agents in an uncertain world is striking the right balance between utility maximization and resource use, not only for external movement but also for internal computation. Existing theories of control…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-19 Itzel Olivos-Castillo , Paul Schrater , Xaq Pitkow

We study a repeated information design setting in which the receiver, who is also the decision-maker, updates beliefs in a systematically biased way. More specifically, a distorted posterior in our model can be written as a convex…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2026-05-18 Yuqi Pan , Sadie Zhao , Milind Tambe , Yiling Chen

Weighted Updating generalizes Bayesian updating, allowing for biased beliefs by weighting the likelihood function and prior distribution with positive real exponents. I provide a rigorous foundation for the model by showing that…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-02-09 Jesse Aaron Zinn

Background: Confirmation bias is the tendency to acquire or evaluate new information in a way that is consistent with one's preexisting beliefs. It is omnipresent in psychology, economics, and even scientific practices. Prior theoretical…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-11-18 A. E. Allahverdyan , Aram Galstyan

When subjected to automated decision-making, decision subjects may strategically modify their observable features in ways they believe will maximize their chances of receiving a favorable decision. In many practical situations, the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2022-10-10 Keegan Harris , Valerie Chen , Joon Sik Kim , Ameet Talwalkar , Hoda Heidari , Zhiwei Steven Wu