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Conformal prediction has recently emerged as a promising strategy for quantifying the uncertainty of a predictive model; these algorithms modify the model to output sets of labels that are guaranteed to contain the true label with high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-11 Botong Zhang , Shuo Li , Osbert Bastani

Conformal predictions make it possible to define reliable and robust learning algorithms. But they are essentially a method for evaluating whether an algorithm is good enough to be used in practice. To define a reliable learning framework…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-18 Alberto Carlevaro , Teodoro Alamo Cantarero , Fabrizio Dabbene , Maurizio Mongelli

We develop a new approach to multi-label conformal prediction in which we aim to output a precise set of promising prediction candidates with a bounded number of incorrect answers. Standard conformal prediction provides the ability to adapt…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-16 Adam Fisch , Tal Schuster , Tommi Jaakkola , Regina Barzilay

Machine learning classification tasks often benefit from predicting a set of possible labels with confidence scores to capture uncertainty. However, existing methods struggle with the high-dimensional nature of the data and the lack of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-08 Rui Luo , Zhixin Zhou

This paper presents a conformal prediction method for classification in highly imbalanced and open-set settings, where there are many possible classes and not all may be represented in the data. Existing approaches require a finite, known…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-10-16 Tianmin Xie , Yanfei Zhou , Ziyi Liang , Stefano Favaro , Matteo Sesia

Conformal prediction (CP) is an emerging uncertainty quantification framework that allows us to construct a prediction set to cover the true label with a pre-specified marginal or conditional probability. Although the valid coverage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-09 Yuanjie Shi , Subhankar Ghosh , Taha Belkhouja , Janardhan Rao Doppa , Yan Yan

Conformal prediction is a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification that replaces point predictions with sets, offering marginal coverage guarantees (i.e., ensuring that the prediction sets contain the true label with a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-25 Margarida M. Campos , João Calém , Sophia Sklaviadis , Mário A. T. Figueiredo , André F. T. Martins

Conformal prediction is an uncertainty quantification method that constructs a prediction set for a previously unseen datum, ensuring the true label is included with a predetermined coverage probability. Adaptive conformal prediction has…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-07 Erfan Hajihashemi , Yanning Shen

Conformal inference provides a rigorous statistical framework for uncertainty quantification in machine learning, enabling well-calibrated prediction sets with precise coverage guarantees for any classification model. However, its reliance…

Automated decision support systems promise to help human experts solve multiclass classification tasks more efficiently and accurately. However, existing systems typically require experts to understand when to cede agency to the system or…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-03 Eleni Straitouri , Lequn Wang , Nastaran Okati , Manuel Gomez Rodriguez

Conformal prediction is a model-agnostic approach to generating prediction sets that cover the true class with a high probability. Although its prediction set size is expected to capture aleatoric uncertainty, there is a lack of evidence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-24 Misgina Tsighe Hagos , Claes Lundström

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular method for uncertainty quantification with machine learning models. While conformal prediction provides probabilistic guarantees regarding the coverage of the true label, these guarantees are agnostic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Aditya T. Vadlamani , Anutam Srinivasan , Pranav Maneriker , Ali Payani , Srinivasan Parthasarathy

Conformal prediction is a framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets for previously unseen data, guaranteeing coverage of the true label with a specified probability. However, the efficiency of these prediction…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Erfan Hajihashemi , Yanning Shen

Conformal prediction is widely used to equip black-box machine learning models with uncertainty quantification, offering formal coverage guarantees under exchangeable data. However, these guarantees fail when faced with subpopulation…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-10 Nien-Shao Wang , Duygu Nur Yaldiz , Yavuz Faruk Bakman , Sai Praneeth Karimireddy

Prediction sets capture uncertainty by predicting sets of labels rather than individual labels, enabling downstream decisions to conservatively account for all plausible outcomes. Conformal inference algorithms construct prediction sets…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-20 Wenwen Si , Sangdon Park , Insup Lee , Edgar Dobriban , Osbert Bastani

Conformal prediction has emerged as an effective strategy for uncertainty quantification by modifying a model to output sets of labels instead of a single label. These prediction sets come with the guarantee that they contain the true label…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Haosen Ge , Hamsa Bastani , Osbert Bastani

Conformal Prediction (CP) controls the prediction uncertainty of classification systems by producing a small prediction set, ensuring a predetermined probability that the true class lies within this set. This is commonly done by defining a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-14 Coby Penso , Jacob Goldberger , Ethan Fetaya

If you are predicting the label $y$ of a new object with $\hat y$, how confident are you that $y = \hat y$? Conformal prediction methods provide an elegant framework for answering such question by building a $100 (1 - \alpha)\%$ confidence…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-11 Eugene Ndiaye , Ichiro Takeuchi

Conformal prediction constructs a confidence set for an unobserved response of a feature vector based on previous identically distributed and exchangeable observations of responses and features. It has a coverage guarantee at any nominal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-08 Eugene Ndiaye , Ichiro Takeuchi

Decision support systems based on prediction sets have proven to be effective at helping human experts solve classification tasks. Rather than providing single-label predictions, these systems provide sets of label predictions constructed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-13 Giovanni De Toni , Nastaran Okati , Suhas Thejaswi , Eleni Straitouri , Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez
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