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While Gaussian processes are a mainstay for various engineering and scientific applications, the uncertainty estimates don't satisfy frequentist guarantees and can be miscalibrated in practice. State-of-the-art approaches for designing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-20 Alexandre Capone , Geoff Pleiss , Sandra Hirche

With the improvement in sensitivity of gravitational wave (GW) detectors and the increasing diversity of GW sources, there is a strong need for accurate GW waveform models for data analysis. While the current model accuracy assessments…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2022-08-22 Qian Hu , John Veitch

The use of Gaussian processes (GPs) is supported by efficient sampling algorithms, a rich methodological literature, and strong theoretical grounding. However, due to their prohibitive computation and storage demands, the use of exact GPs…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-27 Kelly R. Moran , Matthew W. Wheeler

We apply neural posterior estimation for fast-and-accurate hierarchical Bayesian inference of gravitational wave populations. We use a normalizing flow to estimate directly the population hyper-parameters from a collection of individual…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2024-04-09 Konstantin Leyde , Stephen R. Green , Alexandre Toubiana , Jonathan Gair

Crosscorrelation of the outputs of two Gravitational Wave (GW) detectors has recently been proposed [1] as a method for detecting statistical association between GWs and Gamma Ray Bursts (GRBs). Unfortunately, the method can be effectively…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-07 G. Modestino , A. Moleti

The direct detection of gravitational waves (GWs) by LIGO has strikingly confirmed general relativity (GR), but testing GR via GWs requires estimating parameterized post-Einsteinian (ppE) deviation parameters in waveform models. Traditional…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2026-02-03 Yong-Xin Zhang , Tian-Yang Sun , Chun-Yu Xiong , Song-Tao Liu , Yu-Xin Wang , Shang-Jie Jin , Jing-Fei Zhang , Xin Zhang

With the advanced LIGO and Virgo detectors taking observations the detection of gravitational waves is expected within the next few years. Extracting astrophysical information from gravitational wave detections is a well-posed problem and…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2016-08-31 Tyson B. Littenberg , Jonah B. Kanner , Neil J. Cornish , Margaret Millhouse

Gravitational-wave data analysis demands sophisticated statistical noise models in a bid to extract highly obscured signals from data. In Bayesian model comparison, we choose among a landscape of models by comparing their marginal…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2019-06-12 Haochen Wang , Stephen R. Taylor , Michele Vallisneri

The determination of the physical parameters of gravitational wave events is a fundamental pillar in the analysis of the signals observed by the current ground-based interferometers. Typically, this is done using Bayesian inference…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2023-11-07 M. Andrés-Carcasona , M. Martinez , Ll. M. Mir

Context. As the importance of Gravitational Wave (GW) Astrophysics increases rapidly, astronomers in different fields and with different backgrounds can have the need to get a quick idea of which GW source populations can be detected by…

Space-based gravitational wave (GW) detectors will be able to observe signals from sources that are otherwise nearly impossible from current ground-based detection. Consequently, the well established signal detection method, matched…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2023-08-17 Tianyu Zhao , Ruoxi Lyu , He Wang , Zhoujian Cao , Zhixiang Ren

A yet undetected class of GW signals is represented by the close encounters between compact objects in highly-eccentric e~1 orbits, that can occur in binary systems formed in dense environments such as globular clusters. The expected…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2025-09-26 Federico De Santi , Massimiliano Razzano , Francesco Fidecaro , Luca Muccillo , Lucia Papalini , Barbara Patricelli

Data assimilation leads naturally to a Bayesian formulation in which the posterior probability distribution of the system state, given the observations, plays a central conceptual role. The aim of this paper is to use this Bayesian…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-01-01 K. J. H. Law , A. M. Stuart

Although Bayesian methods are robust and principled, their application in practice could be limited since they typically rely on computationally intensive Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms for their implementation. One possible solution…

Computation · Statistics 2015-10-06 Tian Chen , Jeffrey Streets , Babak Shahbaba

Future space borne gravitational wave detectors will require a precise definition of calibration signals to ensure the achievement of their design sensitivity. The careful design of the test signals plays a key role in the correct…

Bayesian inference of gravitational wave signals is subject to systematic error due to modelling uncertainty in waveform signal models, coined approximants. A growing collection of approximants are available which use different approaches…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2020-03-25 Gregory Ashton , Sebastian Khan

Future searches for a gravitational-wave background using Earth-based gravitational-wave detectors might be impacted by correlated noise sources. A well known example are the Schumann resonances, which are extensively studied in the context…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2022-04-20 Kamiel Janssens , Thomas A. Callister , Nelson Christensen , Michael W. Coughlin , Ioannis Michaloliakos , Jishnu Suresh , Nick van Remortel

We introduce the use of autoregressive normalizing flows for rapid likelihood-free inference of binary black hole system parameters from gravitational-wave data with deep neural networks. A normalizing flow is an invertible mapping on a…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2020-11-25 Stephen R. Green , Christine Simpson , Jonathan Gair

The Fisher-matrix formalism is used routinely in the literature on gravitational-wave detection to characterize the parameter-estimation performance of gravitational-wave measurements, given parametrized models of the waveforms, and…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2008-11-26 Michele Vallisneri

Observational astrophysics consists of making inferences about the Universe by comparing data and models. The credible intervals placed on model parameters are often as important as the maximum a posteriori probability values, as the…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2021-12-15 Will J. Percival , Oliver Friedrich , Elena Sellentin , Alan Heavens