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Related papers: Performative Time-Series Forecasting

200 papers

Time series forecasting has seen considerable improvement during the last years, with transformer models and large language models driving advancements of the state of the art. Modern forecasting models are generally opaque and do not…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-18 Tim Kreuzer , Jelena Zdravkovic , Panagiotis Papapetrou

Time-series forecasting has been an important research domain for so many years. Its applications include ECG predictions, sales forecasting, weather conditions, even COVID-19 spread predictions. These applications have motivated many…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-15 Shruti Jadon , Jan Kanty Milczek , Ajit Patankar

Multivariate time series forecasting has been widely used in various practical scenarios. Recently, Transformer-based models have shown significant potential in forecasting tasks due to the capture of long-range dependencies. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-10 Zhe Li , Zhongwen Rao , Lujia Pan , Zenglin Xu

Neural Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) have emerged as the primary framework for predicting sequences of events that occur at irregular time intervals, but their sequential nature can hamper performance for long-horizon forecasts. To…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-23 Mai Zeng , Florence Regol , Mark Coates

Multivariate time series (MTS) are ubiquitous in domains such as healthcare, climate science, and industrial monitoring, but their high dimensionality, limited labeled data, and non-stationary nature pose significant challenges for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-09 Jia Wang , Xiao Wang , Chi Zhang

Financial time series forecasting presents significant challenges due to complex nonlinear relationships, temporal dependencies, variable interdependencies and limited data availability, particularly for tasks involving low-frequency data,…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-07-11 Ben A. Marconi

Time series foundation models (FMs) have emerged as a popular paradigm for zero-shot multi-domain forecasting. These models are trained on numerous diverse datasets and claim to be effective forecasters across multiple different time series…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-05-19 Anubha Goel , Puneet Pasricha , Martin Magris , Juho Kanniainen

Probabilistic forecasting consists in predicting a distribution of possible future outcomes. In this paper, we address this problem for non-stationary time series, which is very challenging yet crucially important. We introduce the STRIPE…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-04-13 Vincent Le Guen , Nicolas Thome

The Transformer is a highly successful deep learning model that has revolutionised the world of artificial neural networks, first in natural language processing and later in computer vision. This model is based on the attention mechanism…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-09 Riccardo Ughi , Eugenio Lomurno , Matteo Matteucci

Spatiotemporal forecasting is critical for real-world applications like traffic management, yet capturing reliable interactions remains challenging under noisy and non-stationary conditions. Existing methods primarily rely on historical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Yinghao Ai , Yukai Zhou , Ruoxi Jiang , Junyi An , Chao Qu , Zhijian Zhou , Shiyu Wang , Fenglei Cao , Zenglin Xu , Furao Shen , Yuan Qi

Machine learning models are increasingly used in high-stakes domains where their predictions can actively shape the environments in which they operate, a phenomenon known as performative prediction. This dynamic, in which the deployment of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-09 Gal Fybish , Teo Susnjak

Multivariate time series forecasting plays a crucial role in various fields such as finance, traffic management, energy, and healthcare. Recent studies have highlighted the advantages of channel independence to resist distribution drift but…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-19 Lu Han , Xu-Yang Chen , Han-Jia Ye , De-Chuan Zhan

Most organizations adjust their statistical forecasts (e.g. on sales) manually. Forecasting Support Systems (FSS) enable the related process of automated forecast generation and manual adjustments. As the FSS user interface connects user…

Human-Computer Interaction · Computer Science 2024-11-04 Leif Feddersen

Time series forecasting is essential for operational intelligence in the hospitality industry, and particularly challenging in large-scale, distributed systems. This study evaluates the performance of statistical, machine learning (ML),…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-06 Issar Arab , Rodrigo Benitez

Generative models have gained significant attention in multivariate time series forecasting (MTS), particularly due to their ability to generate high-fidelity samples. Forecasting the probability distribution of multivariate time series is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-13 Shibo Feng , Peilin Zhao , Liu Liu , Pengcheng Wu , Zhiqi Shen

Despite the eminent successes of deep neural networks, many architectures are often hard to transfer to irregularly-sampled and asynchronous time series that commonly occur in real-world datasets, especially in healthcare applications. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-16 Max Horn , Michael Moor , Christian Bock , Bastian Rieck , Karsten Borgwardt

Particle accelerators are complex facilities that produce large amounts of structured data and have clear optimization goals as well as precisely defined control requirements. As such they are naturally amenable to data-driven research…

Accelerator Physics · Physics 2023-03-01 Sichen Li , Andreas Adelmann

Predictable forward performance processes (PFPPs) are stochastic optimal control frameworks for an agent who controls a randomly evolving system but can only prescribe the system dynamics for a short period ahead. This is a common scenario…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-03-26 Bahman Angoshtari , Shida Duan

Flow matching has recently emerged as a powerful paradigm for generative modeling and has been extended to probabilistic time series forecasting in latent spaces. However, the impact of the specific choice of probability path model on…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-19 Soon Hoe Lim , Yijin Wang , Annan Yu , Emma Hart , Michael W. Mahoney , Xiaoye S. Li , N. Benjamin Erichson

Several applications in time series forecasting require predicting multiple steps ahead. Despite the vast amount of literature in the topic, both classical and recent deep learning based approaches have mostly focused on minimising…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-15 Ignacio Hounie , Javier Porras-Valenzuela , Alejandro Ribeiro