Related papers: Generative ensemble deep learning severe weather p…

An ensemble post-processing method is developed to improve the probabilistic forecasts of extreme precipitation events across the conterminous United States (CONUS). The method combines a 3-D Vision Transformer (ViT) for bias correction…

Accurately forecasting extreme rainfall is notoriously difficult, but is also ever more crucial for society as climate change increases the frequency of such extremes. Global numerical weather prediction models often fail to capture…

The conditional generative adversarial rainfall model "cGAN" developed for the UK \cite{Harris22} was trained to post-process into an ensemble and downscale ERA5 rainfall to 1km resolution over three regions of the USA and the UK. Relative…

Quantifying uncertainty in weather forecasts is critical, especially for predicting extreme weather events. This is typically accomplished with ensemble prediction systems, which consist of many perturbed numerical weather simulations, or…

Ensemble prediction systems are an invaluable tool for weather forecasting. Practically, ensemble predictions are obtained by running several perturbations of the deterministic control forecast. However, ensemble prediction is associated…

Ensemble weather forecasts based on multiple runs of numerical weather prediction models typically show systematic errors and require post-processing to obtain reliable forecasts. Accurately modeling multivariate dependencies is crucial in…

Despite continuous improvements, precipitation forecasts are still not as accurate and reliable as those of other meteorological variables. A major contributing factor to this is that several key processes affecting precipitation…

Machine learning (ML) offers a computationally efficient approach for generating large ensembles of high-resolution climate projections, but deterministic ML methods often smooth fine-scale structures and underestimate extremes. While…

Precipitation forecasts are less accurate compared to other meteorological fields because several key processes affecting precipitation distribution and intensity occur below the resolved scale of global weather prediction models. This…

Seasonal climate predictions support planning and risk management by offering early information of the most likely-to-occur climate conditions in the coming months, and associated uncertainties. Ensemble forecasts enable this by simulating…

While deep-learning downscaling algorithms can generate fine-scale climate projections cost-effectively, it is still unclear how well they will extrapolate to unobserved climates. We assess the extrapolation capabilities of a deterministic…

Postprocessing ensemble weather predictions to correct systematic errors has become a standard practice in research and operations. However, only few recent studies have focused on ensemble postprocessing of wind gust forecasts, despite its…

Climate change is increasing the occurrence of extreme precipitation events, threatening infrastructure, agriculture, and public safety. Ensemble prediction systems provide probabilistic forecasts but exhibit biases and difficulties in…

Improving the skill of medium-range (3-8 day) severe weather prediction is crucial for mitigating societal impacts. This study introduces a novel approach leveraging decoder-only transformer networks to post-process AI-based weather…

Ensemble weather forecasts enable a measure of uncertainty to be attached to each forecast, by computing the ensemble's spread. However, generating an ensemble with a good spread-error relationship is far from trivial, and a wide range of…

Issuing timely severe weather warnings helps mitigate potentially disastrous consequences. Recent advancements in Neural Weather Models (NWMs) offer a computationally inexpensive and fast approach for forecasting atmospheric environments on…

We use a conditional deep convolutional generative adversarial network to predict the geopotential height of the 500 hPa pressure level, the two-meter temperature and the total precipitation for the next 24 hours over Europe. The proposed…

The goal of this study was to improve the post-processing of precipitation forecasts using convolutional neural networks (CNNs). Instead of post-processing forecasts on a per-pixel basis, as is usually done when employing machine learning…

We present an ensemble prediction system using a Deep Learning Weather Prediction (DLWP) model that recursively predicts key atmospheric variables with six-hour time resolution. This model uses convolutional neural networks (CNNs) on a…

While machine learning (ML) post-processing of convection-allowing model (CAM) output for severe weather hazards (large hail, damaging winds, and/or tornadoes) has shown promise for very short lead times (0-3 hours), its application to…