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Ecosystem models are often used to predict the consequences of management decisions in applied ecology, including fisheries management and threatened species conservation. These models are high-dimensional, parameter-rich, and nonlinear,…

The predictability of weather and climate is strongly state-dependent: special and extremely relevant atmospheric states like blockings are associated with anomalous instability. Indeed, typically, the instability of a chaotic dynamical…

Climate risk assessments must account for a wide range of possible futures, so scientists often use simulations made by numerous global climate models to explore potential changes in regional climates and their impacts. Some of the…

The composition of ecological communities varies not only between different locations but also in time. Understanding the fundamental processes that drive species towards rarity or abundance is crucial to assessing ecosystem resilience and…

We propose a new procedure to monitor and forecast the onset of transitions in high dimensional complex systems. We describe our procedure by an application to the Tangled Nature model of evolutionary ecology. The quasi-stable…

Cyclic dominance of competing species is an intensively used working hypothesis to explain biodiversity in certain living systems, where the evolutionary selection principle would dictate a single victor otherwise. Technically the…

Climate change impact studies inform policymakers on the estimated damages of future climate change on economic, health and other outcomes. In most studies, an annual outcome variable is observed, e.g. agricultural yield, along with a…

The investigation of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system is not only scientifically challenging but also practically important. We consider a coupled atmosphere-ocean model, which involves hydrodynamics, thermodynamics, and random…

By optimizing the predicted performance over a receding horizon, model predictive control (MPC) provides the ability to enforce state and control constraints. The present paper considers an extension of MPC for nonlinear systems that can be…

This paper studies a regression model with functional dependent and explanatory variables, both of which exhibit nonstationary dynamics. The model assumes that the nonstationary stochastic trends of the dependent variable are explained by…

This study investigates temporal variability in U.S. climate using harmonic decomposition techniques, specifically Fourier and wavelet transforms. Monthly temperature, precipitation, and drought index data from the National Oceanic and…

The climate system's nonlinear dynamics is influenced by various external forcings and internal feedbacks that can give rise to regional and even global tipping points that may lead to significant and potentially irreversible changes.…

We perform a phase space analysis of a generalized modified gravity theory with nonminimally coupling between geometry and matter. We apply the dynamical system approach to this generalized model and find that in the cosmological context,…

Compositional convection is atmospheric mixing driven by density variations caused by compositional gradients. Previous studies have suggested that compositional gradients of atmospheric trace species within planetary atmospheres can impact…

Traditionally, Probability theory was dealing with limit theorems where 'limit" means that time tends to infinity. Questions about finite time dynamics (evolution) were always considered as, although important for practical applications,…

The exponential ordering is exploited in the context of non-auto\-no\-mous delay systems, inducing monotone skew-product semiflows under less restrictive conditions than usual. Some dynamical concepts linked to the order, such as…

A system responding to a stochastic driving signal can be interpreted as computing, by means of its dynamics, an implicit model of the environmental variables. The system's state retains information about past environmental fluctuations,…

A central challenge in climate science and applied mathematics is developing data-driven models of multiscale systems that capture both stationary statistics and responses to external perturbations. Current neural climate emulators aim to…

This paper generalizes recent results by the authors on noninvasive model-reference adaptive control designs for control-based continuation of periodic orbits in periodically excited linear systems with matched uncertainties to a larger…

Learning-based control methods typically assume stationary system dynamics, an assumption often violated in real-world systems due to drift, wear, or changing operating conditions. We study reinforcement learning for control under…