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Distribution shifts introduce uncertainty that undermines the robustness and generalization capabilities of machine learning models. While conventional wisdom suggests that learning causal-invariant representations enhances robustness to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-28 Abbavaram Gowtham Reddy , Celia Rubio-Madrigal , Rebekka Burkholz , Krikamol Muandet

Varying domains and biased datasets can lead to differences between the training and the target distributions, known as covariate shift. Current approaches for alleviating this often rely on estimating the ratio of training and target…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-27 Bijan Mazaheri , Siddharth Jain , Jehoshua Bruck

We present Bayesian Controller Fusion (BCF): a hybrid control strategy that combines the strengths of traditional hand-crafted controllers and model-free deep reinforcement learning (RL). BCF thrives in the robotics domain, where reliable…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-04-05 Krishan Rana , Vibhavari Dasagi , Jesse Haviland , Ben Talbot , Michael Milford , Niko Sünderhauf

Multicalibration extends classical calibration by requiring predictions to be unbiased over a rich collection of functions, encompassing both prediction slices and subpopulations. It has emerged as a powerful framework for fairness,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-26 Hanxuan Ye , Hongzhe Li

Applications of machine learning (ML) techniques to operational settings often face two challenges: i) ML methods mostly provide point predictions whereas many operational problems require distributional information; and ii) They typically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-05 Ragip Gurlek , Francis de Vericourt , Donald K. K. Lee

Safety assurance is critical in the planning and control of robotic systems. For robots operating in the real world, the safety-critical design often needs to explicitly address uncertainties and the pre-computed guarantees often rely on…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-07-09 Hao Zhou , Yanze Zhang , Wenhao Luo

Instrumental variable (IV) and control function (CF) methods are powerful tools for causal effect estimation in the presence of unmeasured confounding, yet most existing approaches target only mean effects and/or demand substantial fitting…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-08 Geping Chen , Chunlin Li , Tianzhong Yang , Zhengyuan Zhu , Jing Zhou

Uncertainty estimation is critical for cost-sensitive deep-learning applications (i.e. disease diagnosis). It is very challenging partly due to the inaccessibility of uncertainty groundtruth in most datasets. Previous works proposed to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-18 Bolian Li , Zige Zheng , Changqing Zhang

We propose an unsupervised tree boosting algorithm for inferring the underlying sampling distribution of an i.i.d. sample based on fitting additive tree ensembles in a fashion analogous to supervised tree boosting. Integral to the algorithm…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-11 Naoki Awaya , Li Ma

Credit risk scoring must support high-stakes lending decisions where data distributions change over time, probability estimates must be reliable, and group-level fairness is required. While modern machine learning models improve default…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2026-03-10 Srikumar Nayak

Weighting methods are essential tools for estimating causal effects in observational studies, with the goal of balancing pre-treatment covariates across treatment groups. Traditional approaches pursue this objective indirectly, for example,…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-09 Diptanil Santra , Guanhua Chen , Chan Park

Reliable uncertainty estimates are an important tool for helping autonomous agents or human decision makers understand and leverage predictive models. However, existing approaches to estimating uncertainty largely ignore the possibility of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-05-22 Sangdon Park , Osbert Bastani , James Weimer , Insup Lee

Causal inference has become a powerful tool to handle the out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization problem, which aims to extract the invariant features. However, conventional methods apply causal learners from multiple data splits, which…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2022-08-23 Yuqing Wang , Xiangxian Li , Zhuang Qi , Jingyu Li , Xuelong Li , Xiangxu Meng , Lei Meng

Neural networks make accurate predictions but often fail to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, especially under covariate distribution shifts between training and testing. To address this problem, we propose a Bayesian framework for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-12-22 Yuli Slavutsky , David M. Blei

A framework for robust optimization under uncertainty based on the use of the generalized inverse distribution function (GIDF), also called quantile function, is here proposed. Compared to more classical approaches that rely on the usage of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-07-18 Domenico Quagliarella , Giovanni Petrone , Gianluca Iaccarino

With multi-agent systems increasingly deployed autonomously at scale in complex environments, ensuring safety of the data-driven policies is critical. Control Barrier Functions have emerged as an effective tool for enforcing safety…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-06-10 Nikolaos Bousias , Lars Lindemann , George Pappas

Explicit finite-sample statistical guarantees on model performance are an important ingredient in responsible machine learning. Previous work has focused mainly on bounding either the expected loss of a predictor or the probability that an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-07 Zhun Deng , Thomas P. Zollo , Jake C. Snell , Toniann Pitassi , Richard Zemel

Ensuring safety for autonomous robots operating in dynamic environments can be challenging due to factors such as unmodeled dynamics, noisy sensor measurements, and partial observability. To account for these limitations, it is common to…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-04-08 Shaohang Han , Matti Vahs , Jana Tumova

Modern neural network architectures have achieved remarkable accuracies but remain highly dependent on their training data, often lacking interpretability in their learned mappings. While effective on large datasets, they tend to overfit on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-19 Pavia Bera , Sanjukta Bhanja

Traditional statistical and machine learning methods typically assume that the training and test data follow the same distribution. However, this assumption is frequently violated in real-world applications, where the training data in the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-08 Hanxuan Ye , Hongzhe Li
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